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楼主:中国知识 时间:2019年11月19日 14:31:52 点击:0 回复:0
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The de facto head of Shanghai’s free-trade zone has stood down, according to Chinese official media, striking another blow to a project that has aly failed to live up to expectations.据中国官方媒体报道,上海自由贸易区(FTZ)事实上的主管、中国自由贸易区管委会常务副主任戴海波被免职。这一事件对原本未能达到人们预期的上海自贸区来说,是又一次重大打击。Xinhua, the state news agency, said Dai Haibo, vice-secretary of the Shanghai municipal government, would no longer act as deputy director and party secretary of the year-old Shanghai free-trade zone management committee.中国官方新闻机构新华社(Xinhua)表示,戴海波不再担任成立了一年的上海自贸区管委会副主任和党组书记。除了自贸区管委会副主任,戴海波还是上海市政府的副秘书长。The FTZ declined to comment.对于这一消息,上海自贸区拒绝置评。The long anticipated zone, an enclave of financial deregulation, has attracted some high-profile companies such as Amazon, which last month announced plans to open a logistics warehouse there.作为一块放松金融监管的飞地,长期以来备受期待的上海自贸区吸引了亚马逊(Amazon)等高端公司。上个月,亚马逊曾宣布了在上海自贸区设立物流仓库的计划。But the news of the premature departure of Mr Dai will underline concerns about the FTZ’s future as it approaches it first anniversary this month. Analysts say there has been scant progress on loosening capital controls or liberalising interest rates in the zone.然而,就在上海自贸区成立一周年纪念日日益临近之际,戴海波提前离职令人们愈发担心自贸区的未来。分析师表示,自贸区在放松资本管制或利率自由化方面的进展乏善可陈。“We don’t think the dismissal of some individual official will change the overall development and openness of the free-trade zone,” said Su Chang, chief economist at CEBM Group. “What we know for sure is Beijing is not very happy with the current status of the free-trade zone”莫尼塔(CEBM Gruop)首席经济学家苏畅表示:“我们认为,个别官员的免职不会改变自贸区总体的发展和开放。我们可以确信的是,中国政府对自贸区的现状不太满意。”Economists say further relaxation of rules on merchandise trade is not among the most urgent reforms for China, aly the world’s largest exporter and second-largest importer.多名经济学家表示,对于中国这个已经是全球最大出口国和第二大进口国的经济体来说,进一步放宽商品贸易规则并不是中国最紧迫的改革之一。Even US ecommerce group Amazon was vague about the benefits of operating in the zone beyond geographical proximity to consumers.即使是美国电子商务集团亚马逊,对于在自贸区运营的好处,除了地理上更接近客户之外,该集团仍一头雾水。Few people expected immediate breakthroughs on financial reform. However, the near total lack of substantive changes has led to cynicism among bankers.几乎没人认为自贸区会在金融改革方面立刻取得突破。然而,实质性改革差不多全面缺失的现象已招致业人士的批评。“It’s been mostly hype so far,” said a loan banker in Shanghai who works with small and medium-sized companies in the zone. “Nothing has really changed.”上海一位在自贸区负责与中小企业合作贷款业务的业人士表示:“到目前为止,多数宣传都言过其实。真正的改变没有发生。”In a report last month about Shanghai International Airport, one of the so-called “concept stocks” that rose sharply in the lead-up to the FTZ’s launch, Hino Lam, Goldman Sachs equity analyst, wrote: “We believe that benefits from Shanghai’s free-trade zone reform policies may take longer than expected to materialise, as we have yet to see any positive impact from it so far in 2014”.在上个月一份关于上海国际机场有限公司(Shanghai International Airport Co)的报告中,高盛(Goldman Sachs)股权分析师伊诺#8226;拉姆(Hino Lam)表示:“我们相信,上海自贸区改革政策发挥优势所需的时间要比预期长。因为,2014年迄今我们还没有看到这些政策的积极影响。”上海国际机场有限公司是所谓“自贸区概念股”,该公司股价曾大幅领涨股市——直至自贸区启动。 /201409/328656When a pig farmer sued a hot air balloon firm, he needed to prove he wasn’t telling porkies。如果一个养猪的农民想要状告热气球公司,那么他得明自己不是在胡说八道。Luckily for Dan Gilbank, he had maths professor, the laws of trigonometry, a lucky photograph and a golfer’s laser rangefinder to back up his case。丹·吉尔本克就是这样一个幸运的农民,数学教授、三角原理、一张照片还有一个高尔夫球手常用的激光测距仪都帮他赢得了官司。Farm manager Mr Gilbank, 46, and his father Mick, 67, were adamant that a low-flying balloon had caused 250 of their pigs to stampede into a ditch, with disastrous – and costly – consequences。丹是一名农场经理,今年46岁,他和67岁的父亲米克,都坚信,使他们家250头猪受到惊吓逃窜到一条沟里从而造成灾难性后果及巨大经济损失的,是一个低空飞行的热气球。Now the farm’s owners have won nearly £40,000 compensation following a two-year legal battle。官司持续了两年的时间,如今该农场的主人获得了近4万英镑的赔偿。The stampede happened in April 2012 when a hot air balloon carrying a party of sightseers flew over Low Moor Farm, near York。农场的猪受惊事件发生在2012年4月份的一天,当时一个载着一群游客的热气球飞过约克郡附近的低尔庄园。The pigs had been in their pens but were so terrified by the sight of the red-and-white-striped balloon and the noise from its burners they charged through fences, stampeded 200 yards and ended up in a ditch at the end of the field。原本呆在围栏里的猪,因为被红白相间的热气球及其燃烧炉发出的声音吓到,随即越过栅栏四处逃窜了200多码(约183米)最后掉进了一个水沟里。Hot air balloons are banned from flying lower than 1,500ft over it or closer than 1,500ft to it。热气球在飞行时,与地面的距离被禁止低于低于或接近1500英尺(约457.2米)。On this occasion, Mr Gilbank – who has run the farm with his father for 16 years – suspected the offending balloon had breached these limits as it soared over the North Yorkshire countryside。因此,和父亲一起经营农场有16年之久的丹,怀疑这个在约克郡北部乡村上空飞行的热气球违反了规定。But the balloon’s operators insisted it had come no closer than 2,500ft to the farm。但是当时的热气球操作员坚持说热气球与村庄的距离超过了2500英尺(约762米)。Insurers for the company used GPS data generated during the flight to back their claim that it could not have caused the stampede。热气球公司的保险人员查看了飞行过程中的GPS数据也持了操作员的说法,认为猪受惊事件不是由此导致的。However, the wife of a neighbouring farmer had by chance taken a photograph of the balloon. Low Moor Farm’s owners, Ian Mosey (Livestock) Ltd, called in Chris Fewster, a professor of mathematics at the University of York。但是,丹邻居的妻子当时偶然拍下了一张热气球的照片。低尔庄园的所有者伊恩·莫西有限公司,找来了大学数学教授克里斯·福斯特。Professor Fewster used trigonometry to show that the balloon had been at a height of only about 100ft and had been less than 1,000ft from the pigs when it fired its burner。福斯特教授运用数学中的三角原理明出热气球当时的飞行高度只有100英尺(约30.5米),热气球的燃烧炉距离猪圈不到1000英尺(约304.8米)。He was helped in his calculations by Mr Gilbank, who used his laser rangefinder – a golfer’s tool to measure the distance to the green – to work out the height of the trees。在福斯特教授计算的过程中,丹使用激光测距仪帮助教授测量了树木的高度。激光测距仪是高尔夫球手常用作测量草坪距离的一种工具。As a result, the insurers, who had initially offered £10,000 compensation, have now agreed a settlement of £38,782.最终,起初只提供10万英镑赔偿的保险公司现在同意把赔偿金提高到38782英镑。Professor Fewster said the data he obtained from the photo was vital. ‘Putting all of that together, with fairly elementary mathematics, we got to the answer,’ he said。福斯特教授称他从那张偶然拍摄的照片中得到的数据很关键。“把所有这些综合在一起,使用数学方法计算之后,我们就得出了。”The balloon firm, also known as Cameron Flights Southern Limited, went into liquidation last year。而那家叫做卡米伦南部飞行有限公司的热气球公司在去年已经破产。 /201410/336239The global turbulence triggered by China’s stock market crash should not obscure a greater truth: policy shifts in Beijing are positive for developed economies. Investors should look to buy US equities on the dip.中国股市暴跌引发了全球动荡,但这不应掩盖一个更重大的事实:中国的政策转变对发达经济体有好处。投资者应考虑逢低买入美国股票。The sharp structural slowdown in China, long predicted but wilfully ignored until now, is a catastrophe for exporters of natural resources and deflationary for most emerging markets, with the exception of Mexico and India. China and most other emerging economies are likely to see continued demand deflation in the next 12-18 months and further nominal currency depreciation. We believe the renminbi could fall another 5-10 per cent.中国经济出现大幅结构性放缓的可能性早在意料之中,但此前一直被有意忽视。这种放缓对自然资源出口国而言是一场大灾难,并给多数新兴市场(墨西哥和印度除外)带来通缩效应。中国及其他多数新兴经济体在未来12至18个月可能会看到持续的由需求方面引发的通缩,同时名义汇率将进一步贬值。我们认为,人民币可能会再贬值5%至10%。But this is ultimately good news for developed markets. Wasteful investment in China, now being wound down, has been depressing global returns for a decade. Tumbling commodity prices, by transferring income from producers to consumers, act as a tax cut for rich-country households. This is what is needed in a world lacking genuine consumer demand. These divergent trends fuse together in our “deflationary boom” outlook for the world. Our analysis suggests both the deflation and boom still have further to run, with investors likely to keep lurching between the positive and negative aspects of this pattern of growth.但对于发达市场而言,这归根结底是个好消息。10年来,中国的浪费性投资——现在这类投资逐步减少——一直在拉低全球回报率。大宗商品价格暴跌将收入从生产者向消费者转移,对于富国的家庭而言,这起到了减税的效果。这正是当前这个缺乏真正的消费者需求的世界所需要的。这些不同的趋势融合在一起,构成了我们所说的全球“通缩繁荣”(deflationary boom)前景。我们的分析显示,通缩和繁荣都尚无结束迹象,投资者可能会在这种增长模式的有利方面和不利方面之间摇摆不定。The global economy thus remains in a precarious position. Much will depend, of course, on the timing and the path of the Federal Reserve’s tightening. US domestic data still justify an initial rate rise in the next few months. But the biggest uncertainty surrounds China.因此,全球经济仍将处于不稳定状态。当然,这将在很大程度上取决于美联储(Fed)收紧货币政策的时间和路线。美国国内数据仍持在未来几个月开始加息。但最大的不确定性来自中国。Despite botched attempts to prop up share prices and a confusing mini-depreciation of the renminbi, the leadership in Beijing seems to be on the right policy route.尽管撑股价的救市努力显得笨拙,将人民币小幅贬值的政策也令人困惑,但中国领导人的政策路线似乎是正确的。But China’s resolve will not truly be tested until economic weakness finally sps to the labour market over the next 12-18 months. And even if Beijing sticks to reform, it could easily fail to pull off the transition from investment led to consumption powered growth. Investment is the most volatile component of output and in China accounts for a whopping 46 per cent of GDP, so the possibility of a self-fulfilling investment led collapse is real.然而,在经济疲弱最终在未来12至18个月蔓延至劳动力市场之前,中国的决心不会受到真正考验。即便中国坚持改革,也很容易无法实现经济增长模式从投资拉动型向消费拉动型的转变。投资是产出中最具波动性的组成部分,在中国,投资占国内生产总值(GDP)的比例高达46%,因此,具有自我实现效应的投资导致经济崩溃的可能性是真实存在的。A lot hinges, too, on how others respond to China’s slowdown. If Beijing sticks to the path of reform, it can pull its economy out of the doldrums after a few years of economic and financial distress. But it needs the rest of the world to accept the transformation it is attempting and what it entails. The US must welcome China into the global financial system and allow it to take its rightful place in global monetary institutions. Whether the renminbi is added to the currencies that make up the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing right unit will be a litmus test.这也在很大程度上取决于其他国家对中国经济放缓的回应。如果中国坚持改革道路,在经过几年的经济和金融困境后,中国有望让经济走出低迷。但这需要全球其他国家接受中国正在尝试的转型及其后果。美国必须欢迎中国进入全球金融体系,并允许中国在全球货币机构中占据合理地位。人民币是否被纳入国际货币基金组织(IMF)特别提款权的货币篮子,将是一块试金石。If it is rejected, Beijing may well redouble efforts to establish an alternative financial system centred on the renminbi, not the dollar. The US must also accept that China’s embrace of a greater role for market forces — a central aim of US international economic policy — will involve a stronger dollar.如果遭到否决,中国很有可能会加倍努力建立一个以人民币(而非美元)为中心的替代金融体系。美国还必须接受一点,中国朝着让市场力量发挥更大作用(这是美国国际经济政策的一个主要目标)的方向迈进将意味着美元走强。The key economy to watch in trying to assess the global response is Japan. “Abenomics”, the economic programme of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is turning into a policy disaster. It has done little to stimulate domestic demand and the Bank of Japan will be under political pressure to launch yet another round of quantitative easing. This would open a new front in the currency war and make it difficult for China and the US not to respond. After China’s depreciation, Japan is the remaining piece of the puzzle that could surprise global markets. A full-blown currency war and the eventual protectionism it would spark is the main danger for the global economy and risk assets. At present, though, this is not our main scenario.在试图评估全球其他国家的回应时,一个需要关注的关键经济体是日本。日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)提出的“安倍经济学”(Abenomics)振兴经济计划正变成一场政策灾难。它几乎无助于刺激内需,而日本央行(Bank of Japan)将面临政治压力,迫使其推出新一轮量化宽松政策。这将为货币战争开启一条新的前线,中国和美国很难不做出回应。在中国将人民币贬值后,日本是有可能让全球市场感到意外的另一个因素。全面货币战争及其将引发的保护主义是全球经济和风险资产面临的主要危险。不过,就目前来说,这并非我们的主要假设情景。Recent events have understandably dented confidence in China, but investors should not let their anxieties blind them to the bigger picture: important changes are under way. Beijing’s apparent determination to clean up past excesses and to liberalise and rebalance its economy is light at the end of the tunnel. As such, false alarms about the end of the US cycle and fears that the Fed is making a policy mistake should provide buyable dips in US equities.可想而知,最近的局势削弱了投资者对中国的信心,但投资者不应因为焦虑而看不到这个更重要的事实:中国正在进行重大的改革。显然,中国正试图整顿以往的过度现象,推进经济自由化和再平衡,这种决心是黑暗尽头的曙光。就此而言,有关美国周期结束的虚假警报以及美联储将犯下政策失误的担忧,应会制造一个趁低吸纳美国股票的机会。 /201509/397958

BETSY came to Dr. Martin for a second — or rather, a sixth — opinion. Over a year, she had seen five other physicians for a “rapid heartbeat” and “feeling stressed.” After extensive testing, she had finally been referred for psychological counseling for an anxiety disorder.贝蒂来找马丁医生是想问问第二个大夫的意见——实际上是第六个。在过去一年里,因为“心动过速”和“受迫感”的问题,她咨询过五位医生。在经过大量的检查后,医生最终建议她去做焦虑症方面的心理咨询。The careful history Dr. Martin took revealed that Betsy was taking an over-the-counter weight loss product that contained ephedrine. (I have changed their names for privacy’s sake.) When she stopped taking the remedy, her symptoms also stopped. Asked why she hadn’t mentioned this information before, she said she’d “never been asked.” Until then, her providers would sooner order tests than take the time to talk with her about the problem.马丁医生仔细地询问病史,终于得知贝蒂当时正在用一种减肥用的非处方药,其中含有麻黄碱。(为了保护隐私,文中用了化名。)停止用这种药物后,她的症状也就消失了。在被问到过去为什么没有提过这件事时,她说,“从来没人问过。”在那以前,她的医生都会很快让她去做检查,而不是花时间和她谈病情。Betsy’s case was fortunate; poor communication often has much worse consequences. A review of reports by the Joint Commission, a nonprofit that provides accreditation to health care organizations, found that communication failure (rather than a provider’s lack of technical skill) was at the root of over 70 percent of serious adverse health outcomes in hospitals.贝蒂的情况还算幸运,沟通不畅常常会导致更恶劣的后果。非营利组织“医疗机构认联合委员会”(Joint Commission)发布的一份报告指出,医院中发生的严重不良健康后果中,有逾70%的根源在于沟通不畅(而不是医护人员欠缺专业技能)。A doctor’s ability to explain, listen and empathize has a profound impact on a patient’s care. Yet, as one survey found, two out of every three patients are discharged from the hospital without even knowing their diagnosis. Another study discovered that in over 60 percent of cases, patients misunderstood directions after a visit to their doctor’s office. And on average, physicians wait just 18 seconds before interrupting patients’ narratives of their symptoms. Evidently, we have a long way to go.医生能否解释、倾听、与患者产生共鸣,对于病人的诊疗有着深远的影响。然而一项调查发现,有三分之二的病人在不知道诊断结果的情况下,就被要求出院了。另一项研究发现,在超过60%的病例中,患者在问诊后误解了医生的指示。医生平均只会等18秒,就会打断患者对症状的陈述。显然,我们有很长的路要走。Three years ago, my colleagues and I started a program in Harrisburg designed to improve doctors’ communication with their patients. This large urban hospital system serves a city with a population of about 50,000, together with the surrounding metropolitan area of more than 550,000 people.三年前,我和同事在宾夕法尼亚州哈里斯堡启动了一个旨在改善医患沟通的项目。这个规模庞大的城市医院系统,为本市大约5万人口提供务,同时也面向周边城市群共计超过55万的居民。The hospital faces particular challenges: The city has a high poverty rate (32 percent, compared with the state average of 13 percent), and the metro area has a high rate of childhood obesity. Over all, nearly a third of people around Harrisburg are uninsured, compared with about one in 10 for the rest of Pennsylvania.医院面临着一些特殊的挑战:这座城市贫困率极高(达32%,与之相对比,全州平均水平为13%),所在城区的儿童肥胖率也很高。总体而言,哈里斯堡及周边人口中,有近三分之一没有医疗保险,而宾夕法尼亚州其他地区的这一比例则约为十分之一。Our project started with a simple baseline assessment of how we as doctors communicated with our patients. Observation soon revealed that physicians introduced themselves on only about one in four occasions. And without an introduction, it’s no surprise that patients could correctly identify their physician only about a quarter of the time.项目开始时,我们对医生与患者的沟通状况做了一个简单的基准评估。通过观察,我们很快就发现,只有大约四分之一的情况,医生会向患者做自我介绍。既然没有做自我介绍,另一个现象也就不奇怪了:仅有大约四分之一的情况,患者能正确指出给自己诊断的医生是谁。Brief, rushed physician encounters were common, with limited opportunity for questions. A lack of empathy was often apparent: In one instance, after a tearful patient had related the recent death of a loved one, the physician’s next sentence was: “How is your abdominal pain?”与医生会面时简短、仓促的情况十分普遍,提问的机会也很有限。对患者缺乏理解的情况往往很明显:在一个案例中,患者痛哭流涕地倾诉,最近一位亲人去世了,但医生接下来问的却是,“你的腹痛是什么情况?”We developed a physician-training program, which involved mock patient interviews and assessment from the actor role-playing the patient. Over 250 physicians were trained using this technique. We also arranged for a “physician coach” to sit in on real patient interviews and provide feedback.我们推出了一项医生培训计划,其中包括由演员扮演的患者参与的模拟问诊和评估。有超过250名医生接受了运用这个技巧进行的培训。我们还安排了“医生辅导员”在实际接诊时坐在旁边,进而提供反馈。Over the next two years, patient satisfaction with doctors, as measured by a standard questionnaire, moved the hospital’s predicted score up in national rankings by a remarkable 40 percentile points. Several studies have found a correlation between higher patient satisfaction scores and better health outcomes. In one, published in The New England Journal of Medicine, Harvard health policy researchers reported that higher patient satisfaction was associated with improved outcomes for several diseases, including heart attacks, heart failure and pneumonia.在接下来的两年里,通过一项标准化问卷的衡量,患者对医生的满意度提高了,而这所医院的预期得分,在全美排名中也出现了40个百分点的可观提升。有若干项研究发现,患者满意度指标的提高,与治疗效果的改善存在正相关性。在一篇发表在《新英格兰医学杂志》(The New England Journal of Medicine)上的研究论文中,哈佛大学的医疗政策研究人员写道,患者满意度提高,与若干种疾病治疗效果的改善存在相关性,包括心肌梗死、心脏衰竭和肺炎。The need to train and test physicians in “interpersonal and communication skills” was formally recognized only relatively recently, in 1999, when the American Board of Medical Specialties made them one of physicians’ key competencies. Although medical schools and residency programs then began to train and test students on these skills, once physicians have completed training, they are seldom evaluated on them. And doctors trained before the mid-1990s have rarely, if ever, been evaluated at all.对医生在“人际关系和沟通技巧”方面进行培训和检验的需求,直到近年来才正式得到承认。在1999年,美国医疗专科委员会(American Board of Medical Specialties)将这些技巧列为医生的关键能力之一。尽管医学院和住院医项目从那时就开始对学生的这些技巧进行培训和测试,但是医生在完成学业后,极少还会受到这方面的评估。所有在上世纪90年代中期之前接受医学教育的医生,则极少甚至完全没有得到过评估。I realize that many colleagues may see methods like ours as too intrusive on their clinical practice and may say that they don’t have the time. But we need to move away from the perception that social skills and better communication are a kind of optional extra for doctors. A good bedside manner is simply good medicine.我明白很多同行可能会认为,我们这样的方法对临床实践的干扰太强,也可能会说他们没时间。不过,我们需要摒弃那种认为社交技巧和改善沟通对医生来说是一种可有可无的额外素质的念头,因为在临床实践中,良好的态度本身就是一剂良药。A passionate diabetes specialist told me how she sat down with a patient to understand why he was not using his diabetes medications regularly, despite numerous hospital admissions for complications.一位充满热情的糖尿病专科医师给我讲述了她与一名患者坐下来聊天的情形。尽管那名患者因为并发症而多次入院治疗,但是他还是不肯规律地摄入糖尿病药物,她想弄明白这是为什么。“I can’t continue to do this anymore,” he told her, on the verge of tears. “I’ve just given up.”“我不能再这样活了,”他强忍着泪水告诉她。“我干脆放弃了。”She placed a hand on his shoulder and just sat with him. After a pause, she said: “You have a heart that still beats, and legs you can still walk on — many of my patients don’t have that privilege.”她把手放在他的肩膀上,坐在了他身旁。停顿片刻后,她说:“你的心脏还能跳,腿也还能走。许多患者根本没有这样的运气。”Five years later, recalling this episode, her patient credits her with inspiring him to take better care of himself. The entire encounter took less than five minutes.五年之后,这位患者在回顾这一幕时称赞道,是医生的鼓舞让他更好地照顾自己。那次会面只花了不到五分钟。 /201501/352632

Survey on youth netizens青少年网民调查By December 2014, the number of Chinese youth netizens amounted to 277m, or 79.6% of Chinese youth population, according to a report released by China Internet Network Information Center.中国互联网络信息中心近日发布的报告显示,截至2014年12月,中国青少年网民规模达到2.77亿,占中国青少年人口总数的79.6%。Virtual music, game, and online literature were all more frequently used by young Internet users than other online groups generally, the report said.报告显示,青少年网民使用网络音乐、网络游戏、网络视频和网络文学这四类应用的比例均高于网民总体水平。Young Internet users also have high credibility for and deep dependence on the Web world, but hold low awareness of network security.同时,青少年对互联网信任度高、依赖性强,网络安全意识弱。 /201506/379575

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