时间:2019年09月19日 02:43:08

Oil fell to a seven-year low yesterday close to the levels hit during the financial crisis amid increased expectations of a persistent oversupply in global crude.油价昨日跌至7年低点,接近金融危机期间触及的水平,市场对全球原油持续供过于求的预期加大。“The year is ending on an uncomfortable note. The smell of fear is back in the air,said David Hufton at London-based broker PVM.总部位于伦敦的经纪商PVM的戴维霍夫顿(David Hufton)表示:“今年将以一种不安的基调结束。空气中再次闻到了恐慌的味道。”A further sell-off for corporate debt pointed to deepening anxiety in bond markets ahead of the biggest change to US monetary policy in a decade, tomorrow’s expected rate rise by the Fed.预计美联Fed)明日将加息,在美国货币政策出0年来最大变化之前,企业债券遭遇进一步抛售,表明债券市场恐慌加剧。Investors have begun to focus on rising indebtedness, depressed energy prices, credit rating downgrades and the ability of companies to support debt taken on during six-years of easy credit, once borrowing costs rise.投资者开始关注负债上升、能源价格低迷、信用评级下调以及一旦借款成本上升企业能否撑年廉价信贷期间借入的债务。Brent crude fell .60 to .33 a barrel yesterday the lowest in seven years edging closer to the December 2008 intraday low of .20 a barrel. If Brent falls below this, it will hit a level last seen in mid-2004.全球基准布伦特原Brent)价格昨日下跌1.60美元,至每桶36.33美元,为7年最低,逼近20082月触及的每桶36.20美元的盘中低点。如果布伦特原油价格跌破这个水平,那将触004年年中以来未见的水平。The global benchmark, which had been declining for its seventh consecutive session, rebounded in afternoon trading to .20 a barrel.布伦特原油价格已连续个交易日下跌,在昨日午后交易时段反弹至每8.20美元。West Texas Intermediate, the US market benchmark, sank .09 to .53 a barrel the lowest since February before recovering to .34 a barrel. WTI traded at .40 a barrel in 2008.美国市场基准西德克萨斯中质油(West Texas Intermediate)昨日下跌1.09美元,至每桶34.53美元,为009月以来最低,后来反弹至每6.34美元。该品种石油曾在2008年跌至每2.40美元。Oil prices have tumbled since the meeting of Opec ministers at the start of the month. Brent has plunged as much as 17 per cent while WTI is down 16 per cent. Discord within the group on which members should cut production to shore up the price led to Opec’s continuing to keep on pumping.自从本月初石油输出国组织(Opec,简称欧佩克)召开部长会议以来,油价一直下跌。布伦特原油价格已累计下7%,西德克萨斯中质油价格下6%。由于欧佩克内部在哪些成员国应减产撑油价的问题上存在分歧,欧佩克继续全力开采石油。The group also scrapped its official production ceiling and took away any pretence of output constraint.该组织还取消了官方产量上限,消除了任何限产伪装。Despite weakening production growth outside Opec, members of the producersgroup have ramped up output in the face of lower oil prices.尽管欧佩克以外的石油产量增速放缓,但面对油价下跌,该组织成员国反而加大了产量。Iraq and Saudi Arabia have pumped at record levels this year, while oil market participants are eyeing the appearance of additional barrels from Iran when sanctions linked to its nuclear programme are expected to be lifted next year.伊拉克和沙特阿拉伯今年的产量已达到创纪录水平,同时石油市场参与者正在关注,一旦与核计划相关的制裁于明年解除,伊朗将为市场带来更多供应。来 /201512/416355

Any western leader who launched a military operation abroad in the middle of a stinging recession would have a hard time convincing the nation to pay for it. But as the Russian government sent its draft budget for 2016 to the Duma on Friday night, nobody even mentioned President Vladimir Putin’s bombing campaign in Syria.西方领导人如果在日子难熬的经济衰退期间发起海外军事行动,都会尝到说国民为其买单的苦头。但俄罗斯政府上周五晚向国家杜马(Duma)提交2016年预算草案时,甚至没人提到弗拉基米尔渠京(Vladimir Putin)总统在叙利亚发起的轰炸行动。Low oil prices, a weak rouble and western sanctions have caused the country’s economy to contract by 3.4 per cent in the first half of the year and, as Russia relies on oil-related revenues for half of its budget, this has forced some belt-tightening.油价下跌、卢布疲软以及西方制裁已造成俄罗斯经济今年上半年萎缩3.4%,由于俄罗斯一半的预算依靠与石油相关的财政收入,这迫使莫斯科在一些方面勒紧腰带。Pensions, for example, will increase by no more than 4 per cent next year, according to the budget far short of the inflation rate of 12 per cent.例如,根据预算,明年养老金的增幅将不超%——远低于12%的通胀率。Despite all this, Moscow can easily afford its military operation in Syria both because it is cheap compared with similar endeavours by the US, and because 17 consecutive years of funding increases and an opaque budget have helped to fill the military’s pockets, say defence experts.防务专家称,尽管如此,莫斯科能够轻松负担得起在叙利亚的军事行动——既是因为与美国的类似作战行动相比,俄军的开较少,也是因为连续17年的军费增长以及不透明的预算帮助充实了俄军的底气。Even if Russia continued its air strikes at the current level for a full year, it would use less than 3 per cent of the funds budgeted for national defence in 2016, according to IHS Jane’s, the defence research group, and Financial Times calculations.根据防务研究机构简氏防IHS Janes)以及英国《金融时报》的计算,即使俄罗斯继续以当前水平进行一整年的空中打击,所需资金也不016年国防预算的3%。“We believe a campaign like the one they are running there right now would cost between .3m and m a day,said Ben Moores, senior analyst at IHS Jane’s.简氏防务高级分析师本穆尔斯(Ben Moores)表示:“我们认为,像他们如今正在开展的这类行动,每天的花费介于230万至400万美元之间。”A sum of Rbs3.15tn (bn) has been earmarked for national defence expenditure next year. The government reversed some earlier planned defence budget cuts this week, so the 2016 draft defence budget marks a 0.8 per cent increase over this year, but both as a share of total public spending and of gross domestic product, it is decreasing slightly for the first time in years.共计3.15万亿卢布10亿美元)已被指定用于明年的国防出。上周,俄政府扭转了一些早先计划的国防预算削减,因此,2016年的国防预算将比今年增加0.8%,但其在公共出总额和国内生产总GDP)所占比重将出现多年来的首次略微减少。However, more than a quarter of this year’s budget was earmarked for military expenditure, and vast parts of the military budget are secret.然而,今年预算的逾四分之一被划拨给了军事开,而军事预算的绝大部分都是机密。This absence of public oversight and of a visible financial burden allows Mr Putin to continue or even expand his high-profile geopolitical challenge to the west.缺乏公众监督以及财政负担不明显,让普京得以继续甚至扩大他对西方高调发起的地缘政治挑战。On the back of constant state television coverage, which describes Russia’s three-week bombing campaign in Syria as a fight against evil, the independent pollster Levada found that support for Moscow’s military action had soared from a mere 14 per cent in late September to more than 70 per cent.俄罗斯国家电视台的不间断报道(将俄在叙利亚持续已3周的轰炸行动描述为打击邪恶的斗争)产生了效果,独立民调机构列瓦达(Levada)发现,对莫斯科发起的军事行动的持率已从9月下旬的14%飙升至0%。Mr Putin’s support ratings had hit an all-time high of 89.9 per cent, state-backed pollster VTsIOM said this week.政府持的民意调查机构VTsIOM上周称,普京的持率创下89.9%的历史新高。Mr Moorescalculation of the war cost is based on the assumption that Russia has 36 fighter aircraft and 20 helicopters at its Latakia air base which fly an average of 30 sorties a day and drop five bombs per sortie. In addition, he takes into account the presence of at least 1,500 soldiers deployed, plus naval support.简氏防务的穆尔斯对俄罗斯参战成本的计算基于这样假设:俄罗斯在拉塔基Latakia)空军基地拥有36架战斗机0架直升机,平均每天出0架次,每架次投掷5枚炸弹。此外,他还算入了俄罗斯部署的至500名官兵,以及俄海军的持。According to IHS data, Russia could sustain its troops in Syria at little more than one-tenth of the roughly m it costs the US per day to support the same number of soldiers in Afghanistan.简氏防务的数据显示,相比美军在阿富汗部署同样数量军人每日所需的大00万美元开销,俄罗斯维持叙利亚驻军所需费用仅为十分之一多一点。This is because Russia can save fuel by sustaining the troops by sea, its soldierssalaries, food and medical bills are lower, and the military personnel are believed to be concentrated at base rather than sp out in combat.这是因为俄罗斯可通过海路补给军队以节省燃料,俄军官兵的薪水、伙食及医疗费用更低,而且俄军事人员据信大都集中在基地,而非分散于许多前沿阵地。According to recent figures released by the Pentagon, the US has so far spent roughly bn in its 14-month campaign against Isis Islamist fighters roughly m a day.五角大楼近期公布的数据显示,打击“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国Isis)伊斯兰主义武装分4个月以来,美国迄今已在军事行动上出0亿美元——每天约1000万美元。Other foreign and Russian defence experts said it was impossible to calculate the cost of the Syria intervention accurately, due to Moscow’s opaque defence budget. But they agree that it is likely to be minuscule compared with total military spending.其他外国及俄罗斯防务专家称,鉴于莫斯科方面不透明的国防预算,准确计算出干预叙利亚的花费是不可能的。但他们一致认为,与总军事开相比,这很可能只是很小一部分。“This [Syria campaign spending] is going to just disappear in the huge black hole that is our country’s military budget,said Vasily Zatsepin, an expert on military economics at the independent Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy in Moscow. “The transparency of our defence spending is decreasing from one defence minister to the next.”“这(叙利亚军事行动开)将消失在我国军事预算的巨大黑洞中,”莫斯科盖达尔经济政策研究所(Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)军事经济学专家瓦西里丠采Vasily Zatsepin)说,“我们国防出的透明度正随着国防部长的更替而不断降低。”Russia’s national defence budget accounts for less than half of the country’s total military expenditure, which is expected to hit 5.42 per cent of GDP this year, according to Julian Cooper, an expert on Russian military spending at the University of Birmingham. On top of that, the military spends each year an amount equivalent to 60 per cent of the national defence budget on arms procurement, maintenance and development.根据伯明翰大University of Birmingham)俄罗斯军事专家朱利安錠珀(Julian Cooper)的分析,俄罗斯国防预算占该国总军事开的不到一半,后者预计今年将达到GDP.42%。除此之外,俄军每年在武器采购、维护与开发上的出相当于国防预算0%。A senior government official said the cost of the Syria operation was expected to be covered by reducing the number and scale of domestic military exercises. The ministry of defence does not disclose details on the cost of such exercises.一名政府高官称,预计叙利亚军事行动的花销将通过缩减国内军事演练的次数和规模来弥补。俄国防部并不披露此类演练的详尽开。IHS’s calculations exclude the launch of 26 cruise missiles against Syrian insurgents on October 7, Mr Putin’s birthday. A Russian official said the use of the missiles was “very expensive but defence experts noted that a smaller number would have been launched as part of an exercise anyway.简氏防务的计算没有包含10日(普京生日当天)向叙利亚反对派武装分子发射6枚巡航导弹。一名俄罗斯官员称,使用导弹“非常昂贵”,但防务专家指出,俄军本来就准备作为演练的一部分发射一些导弹,尽管数量较少。Russian military experts said several other military expenditure categories also offered reserves that could be used for the Syria war.俄罗斯军事专家称,其他几种军费开类别也提供了可用于叙利亚战争的储备。“Even though the Russian armed forces officially have 1m personnel, everybody knows that the real number is closer to 850,000, but the ministry of finance still provides funds for 1m,said Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Russian defence think-tank.俄罗斯防务智库战略与技术分析中Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies)主任鲁斯兰渠霍夫(Ruslan Pukhov)说:“虽然官方称俄罗斯武装部队拥00万人,大家都知道实际数字更接5万,但财政部仍按100万人拨款。”Funds claimed by the ministry of defence for expenditure such as bonuses for soldiers could be channelled into the war effort, he said.他说,国防部所称的一些开——如发给士兵的奖金——可能被转拨为战争出。Several defence analysts added that an expected slowdown in procurements under a multiyear armaments programme would free up money for the Syria campaign. Moreover, they expect that Moscow is lowering the cost of the war by using expired ammunition stocks and making Syria foot at least part of the Russian air force’s fuel bill.多位防务分析师补充说,一项多年军备计划本来就预计会出现的放缓,将为在叙利亚的军事行动腾出资金。此外,他们认为,莫斯科正通过使用库存的过期弹药,并让叙利亚负担俄空军的一部分燃料费用,来降低战争出。来 /201510/406173

Russia’s ambassador to the UK was summoned to the Foreign Office on Thursday after two Russian bombers disrupted civilian air traffic over the English Channel. The RAF scrambled fighters to intercept them.The incident is the latest increasingly tense brush with Russian aircraft in the skies above Britain and other Nato-countriesborders.It was also one of the most serious around British airspace so far, according to Whitehall officials. Russia’s ambassador, Alexander Yakovenko was last summoned by the Foreign Office in July over an incident involving the expulsion of a diplomat. He has not been called to account for increased Russian aerial activity by Britain before.The two huge Russian Tu-95 bombers, known by fighter pilots as bears, flew across one of the busiest civilian flightpaths in Europe and had their transponders turned off, meaning that they could only be detected by radar and would have been invisible on regular air traffic control systems.The UK’s air traffic controller, Nats, was forced to re-route commercial flights as a result. The decision was a “precautionary measure,a government official said.The bombers whose distinctive outline once made them one of the most recognisable symbols of the cold war were initially intercepted by Norwegian fighters after taking off from Russia. They flew south from Norway over the North Sea towards UK airspace, continuing down the Channel and then along France’s Atlantic coast.Nato countries saw a threefold increase in provocative Russian activity in the skies last year. In Britain, RAF fighters have had to be scrambled once a month on average since tensions with Moscow began to rise.Jock Lowe, a former head of flight operations at British Airways, said the incident over the Channel this week was a marked departure from the tactics of the Soviet air force at the height of the cold war.In the 1970s and 1980s, Tu-95 long-range bombers would test UK air defence over the North Sea, often performing dummy bombing runs but they did not come as far south as the Channel.Despite a bulked-up Nato fighter mission in the Baltic and countries such as the UK being on a state of high alert for Russian incursions, the Kremlin has shown little indication that it will scale back its activities.President Vladimir Putin reinstated long-range patrols of nuclear-capable bombers in 2007 and has significantly increased the regularity and scale of their manoeuvres of late.两架俄罗斯轰炸机干扰英吉利海峡上空的民用航空交通后,英国外交部于周四召见俄罗斯驻英国大使。此前英国皇家空RAF)命令战斗机紧急起飞对俄军机予以拦截。因俄罗斯飞机在英国以及其他北约(Nato)国家边境上空的擦,地区局势越发紧张,此次事件是最新的一例。英国政府官员称,这也是迄今为止在英国领空附近发生的最严重事件之一。俄罗斯大使亚历山大#8226;雅科文科(Alexander Yakovenko)上一次被英国外交部召见是在去月,起因是一起驱逐外交官事件。此前他并未被要求就俄罗斯空中活动增多做出解释。这两架巨型俄罗斯图-95(Tu-95)轰炸机(北约战斗机飞行员称其为“熊”)飞越欧洲最繁忙的民用航空线路之一并关闭了应答器,这意味着,它们只能被雷达监测到,但不显示在常规空中交通管制系统中。英国空管机构Nats被迫因此更改民用航空航班的线路。一政府官员表示,这一决定是一种“预防措施”。这两架轰炸机的外形独特,曾是冷战时期最容易识别的标志之一。这两架轰炸机从俄罗斯起飞后,起初遭到挪威战斗机的拦截,然后它们从挪威向南飞行,越过北海飞向英国领空,并继续飞向英吉利海峡,沿法国大西洋海岸飞行。去年,俄罗斯在北约国家上空的挑衅行为增加了3倍。自从与俄罗斯紧张关系开始加剧以来,英国皇家空军战斗机不得不平均每月紧急起飞一次。英国航British Airways)前飞行任务主管乔#8226;罗威(Jock Lowe)表示,本周发生在英吉利海峡上空的事件与前苏联空军在冷战白热化时期的策略明显不同。上世纪70年代0年代,图-95远程轰炸机会在北海上空测试英国的空中防御,通常是进行模拟轰炸飞行,但从未飞到像英吉利海峡这么靠南的地区。尽管北约战斗机对俄罗斯入侵高度警惕,在巴尔干半岛和英国等国的任务增加,但俄罗斯几乎没有将减少此类活动的迹象。俄罗斯总统弗拉基米#8226;普京(Vladimir Putin)007年恢复了可携带核弹头的轰炸机的远程巡航,而且最近大大增加了此类巡航的频率和规模

Fifty years ago, Malaysia expelled Singapore from the federation and the two entities went their separate ways. So distraught was Lee Kuan Yew, then Singapore’s chief minister, that he shed tears in public for the first and last time in his long and extraordinary career. Half a century later, it should be Malaysians who are crying.50年前,马来西亚将新加坡驱逐出马来西亚联邦,两个实体从此分道扬镳。时任新加坡首席部长的李光耀(Lee Kuan Yew)当时如此悲痛,以至于他首次——也是漫长而非凡的政治生涯中最后一次——在公开场合落泪。半个世纪后,流泪的应该是马来西亚人。Undoubtedly, Singapore has its problems. Its brand of authoritarian guided development has delivered prosperity and produced the world’s slickest city state. But many Singaporeans feel something is missing in their controlled society, a hole that cannot be filled by economic growth. Yet whatever difficulties Singapore faces, these pale in comparison with those of Malaysia. Not only is Malaysia going through its worst political crisis in years after hundreds of millions of dollars found their way into the bank account of Najib Razak, the prime minister. More critically, Malaysia has been undergoing a long-term meltdown in which the political, religious and ethnic compact that has underpinned the country since independence groans under its own rotten contradictions.新加坡无疑有它的问题。其特有的威权指引发展模式带来了繁荣,缔造了世界上最高效的城市国家。但许多新加坡人觉得,他们身处的受控社会是有缺失的,而这种缺失是经济增长填补不了的。然而,无论新加坡面对什么困难,这些困难与马来西亚相比实在算不了什么。马来西亚正在经历多年来最严峻的政治危机,起因是该国总理纳吉布拉扎克(Najib Razak)的账户不知怎么多出了数亿美元。更严重的是,马来西亚正走在长期的下坡路上,自独立以来撑着该国的政治、宗教和民族“契约”在自己造成的严重矛盾下岌岌可危。For all the doubts that nag at Singapore, from democracy to demography, the city has been an incredible success. Its per capita gross domestic product, ,000 in nominal terms, is more than five times that of Malaysia’s ,000.尽管有各种疑虑困扰着新加坡(从民主体制到人口结构),这个城市国家仍是一个令人难以置信的成功故事。其5.6万美元的名义人均国内生产总GDP),是马来西亚1.1万美元的五倍多。True, in the post-Lee era, Singapore’s People’s Action party, which has held power since independence, has lost its aura of infallibility. Nearly 40 per cent of Singaporeans voted against it in the last elections. Yet, the PAP is still widely regarded as honest and competent. The same cannot be said for the ed Malays National Organisation, which has clung on to power for nearly six decades. Its leader is now embroiled in a scandal linked to state investment fund 1Malaysia Development Berhad, which has racked up bn in debt. The country’s anti-corruption agency has denied media allegations that 5m in Mr Razak’s account came from 1MDB it says the money came from an unnamed Middle East donor. Mr Razak denies any wrongdoing. But whatever the truth in that case, UMNO has long fronted a thoroughly corrupt political system. Malaysia’s public senses this. In the 2013 election, UMNO lost the popular vote but scraped into power thanks to an electoral system stacked in its favour. Since then, the state, too often synonymous with UMNO, has turned its guns on the opposition, jailing its leader Anwar Ibrahim, on charges of sodomy.没错,在后李光耀时代,自新加坡独立以来一直执政的人民行动PAP)失去了绝对正确的光环。在近期的选举中,0%的新加坡人投票反对该党。然而,人民行动党仍被普遍认为是诚实和能干的。这样的评价不适用于在马来西亚抱住权位0年不放的马来民族统一机构(UMNO,中文简称:巫统)。其领导人现在卷入了涉及政府投资基金——背10亿美元债务的MDB1Malaysia Development Berhad)的丑闻。该国反腐败机构否认了有关纳吉布账户上的6.75亿美元来MDB的媒体指控;该机构称这笔钱来自一中东捐赠者,但未披露姓名。纳吉布否认自己有任何不当行为。但是,无论该案的是非曲直如何,巫统都长期领导着一个彻底腐败的政治体制。马来西亚公众意识到这一点。在2013年的选举中,巫统在票数上失利,但借助一套对其有利的选举制度勉强继续掌权。自那以来,往往已成为巫统同义词的马来西亚政府对反对党开刀,以罪名监禁反对党领导人安瓦尔易卜拉Anwar Ibrahim)。In one sense comparing the two countries is unfair. Singapore, with a population of only 5m, is a city. Malaysia, with 450 times the land area and a population of 30m, is harder to govern. Lee, Singapore’s founding father who died in March, held Singapore tightly in his mostly benevolent grip. It is hard to see how such micromanagement could have worked in a much bigger country.在某种意义上,对比这两个国家是不公平的。人口仅500万的新加坡是一个城市。陆地面积是新加50倍、人000万的马来西亚显然更难治理月去世的新加坡开国总理李光耀以总体上仁慈的手腕牢牢掌管着国家。很难看出这样的微观管理能在一个大得多的国家奏效。Still, both countries have potentially combustible ethnic mixes. Singapore has done better at forging a sense of fairness and national unity, through language, meritocracy and incorruptibility. Malaysia, in the name of protecting Malays through positive discrimination, has by contrast created a crony capitalist state. It should learn from Singapore. It should show zero tolerance for corruption, starting with Mr Najib, who must clear his name or step down. Preferential treatment for Malays should be phased out and the government should forge policies of national unity, not ones of division based on religion or Malay ethnicity. Singapore has created a strong foundation from which it can move forward. Malaysia must stop the rot, or slip disastrously backwards.话虽如此,这两个国家都存在容易产生冲突的多民族问题。新加坡借助语言、任人唯贤和廉洁制度,在营造公平和民族团结意识方面做得更好。马来西亚则以保护马来人为名明确实行歧视政策,搞成了一个裙带资本主义国家。马来西亚应该学习新加坡的经验。它应该表现出对腐败的零容忍,从纳吉布开始,他必须要么明自己清白,要么下台。优待马来人的政策应该被取消,政府应该出台民族团结政策,而不是基于宗教或马来族裔的分裂政策。新加坡夯实了一个让国家能够向前迈进的坚实基础。马来西亚必须刮骨疗毒,否则就可能灾难性地向后倒退。来 /201508/391733

There is a big Sunni hole at the heart of international efforts to find a way out of Syria’s civil war and turn the tide against the Sunni jihadis of Isis and their menacing power-base in Syria and Iraq. From the UN Security Council in New York to the Syria forum convened by the US and Russia in Vienna, the architecture that diplomats are struggling to erect looks as riddled as a Swiss cheese.在各国为寻找解决叙利亚内战的方式、打击“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国ISIS)逊尼派圣战组织及其在叙利亚和伊拉克的险恶权力基础的努力中,存在一个较大的漏洞——逊尼派。从位于纽约的联合国安理UN Security Council)到美国和俄罗斯牵头在维也纳举行的叙利亚会谈,外交官们苦苦建立的架构看起来就像瑞士奶酪一样千疮百孔。Last month, after the Isis attack on Paris but also after five years of fighting that has razed vast swaths of Syria, the Security Council issued a unanimous call to arms against Isis. With France on a war footing, the US and Russia ostensibly putting aside their differences from Ukraine to the Middle East, and even Britain extending its modest role in the anti-Isis fight in Iraq into Syria, it seemed as if the lead external actors in the region were starting to coalesce. The Vienna diplomatic summit, with the presence of Iran, which kept Bashar al-Assad’s regime alive until Russian reinforcements arrived in Syria in September, agreed unanimously on a tentative transition out of the Syrian conflict. Is there substance to any of this?上月,在ISIS袭击了巴黎年内战将叙利亚大片领土夷为平地之后,联合国安理会一致同意军事打击ISIS。鉴于法国准备大干一场、美国和俄罗斯至少在表面上搁置了他们在从乌克兰到中东等问题上的分歧、就连英国也将其打击伊拉克境内ISIS的有限努力扩大至叙利亚,看上去该地区的领先外部势力正开始联合起来。在维也纳外交峰会上,各方商定了结束叙利亚冲突的暂定过渡方案。在这次峰会上,伊朗也在场,月份俄罗斯增援叙利亚之前,正是伊朗撑着巴沙尔阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)的政权。这些进展有什么实质性意义吗?The US and Russia, the two main powers embroiled in Syria, remain on opposite sides. President Barack Obama leads a coalition against Isis backed, at least in theory, by Sunni Arab states and Turkey. President Vladimir Putin has put himself at the head of the Iran-backed Shia axis, whose main goal is to prop up the Assad regime, which came perilously close to being toppled by mainstream rebels over the summer. Yet they are both trapped in a dynamic that is conspiring to eliminate any centre ground widening that aly large Sunni hole.卷入叙利亚问题的两大主要势力——美国和俄罗斯,仍然处于对立面。美国总统巴拉克攠巴马(Barack Obama)领导着一个打击ISIS的联盟,至少在理论上得到逊尼派阿拉伯国家和土耳其的持。俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔渠Vladimir Putin)将自己置于由伊朗持的什叶派轴心的领导位置,这个轴心的主要目标是力挺阿萨德政权(今年夏天该政权差点被主流反政府武装推翻)。不过,美俄所处的格局不利于任何中间地带存在,这将扩大本来已经很大的逊尼派漏洞。Mr Putin, who says Russia now spearheads the struggle against Isis that Mr Obama had bungled, has concentrated most of his fire on non-Isis, Sunni rebels, variously backed by the US, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar. That is destroying the alternative to Isis that Russia and the US are purportedly trying to identify. By bolstering a minority regime built around Mr Assad’s quasi-Shia Alawite community, Moscow is fanning the sectarian flames consuming and partitioning the Levant.普京称,俄罗斯如今领导着之前被奥巴马搞得一团糟的打击ISIS的斗争。俄罗斯将绝大部分火力对准各个非ISIS的逊尼派反政府武装,这些叛军分别得到美囀?沙特阿拉伯、土耳其和卡塔尔的撑腰。普京这么做恰恰摧毁了俄美据称正在物色的替代ISIS的势力。为了撑以阿萨德的阿拉维派(Alawite,什叶派分)为中坚力量的少数派政权,俄罗斯正在煽起吞噬和割裂黎凡特的宗派主义战火。Mr Obama inherited the debris of President George W Bush’s 2003 invasion of Iraq, which replaced a Sunni tyranny with ruinously sectarian Shia leaders and shattered Iraq into pieces giving the Isis death cult its start in life.奥巴马接下了前总统乔治圠布什(George W Bush) 2003年入侵伊拉克留下的烂摊子。那场战争以毁灭性的宗派主义什叶派领导人取代了一个逊尼派暴政,使伊拉克四分五裂——为ISIS死亡邪教提供了滋生的条件。Yet the Bush mix of recklessness and fecklessness in Iraq resurfaces in Mr Obama’s lethal ambivalence towards Syria. His defenders say he was right to stay out of an intractable, shape-changing conflict. But that is not what he did. He called for the downfall of the Assads but then held back from giving the mainly Sunni rebels the means to achieve it adding to the sense of dispossession of the Iraqi Sunni minority the feeling of betrayal among Syria’s Sunni majority.然而,奥巴马在叙利亚问题上致命的举棋不定,与当年小布什在伊拉克的轻率徒劳之举在根本上如出一辙。奥巴马的拥护者称,面对一场错综复杂且不断演变的冲突,他置身事外是正确的。但这并不是他所做的。他曾呼吁推翻阿萨德政权,随后却不向主要由逊尼派组成的反政府武装提供实现这一点的手段。换句话说,不仅在伊拉克占人口少数的逊尼派觉得被剥夺权力,在叙利亚占人口多数的逊尼派也感觉遭到背叛。The US-led coalition’s position on the ground against Isis relies essentially on Iraqi Kurdish peshmerga fighters and Syrian Kurdish militia, effective forces that will nevertheless fight only for their own territory. The Pentagon’s attempt to rebrand the Syrian Kurd fighters as a Syrian Arab coalition with the addition of Sunni tribal fighters and Assyrian Christian militia merely spotlights the Sunni Arab hole.以美国为首的联盟在第一线打击ISIS的作战基本上依赖于伊拉克库尔德自由战士和叙利亚库尔德民兵组织,两者都是很有战斗力的武装力量,但只愿意保卫自己的地盘。五角大楼试图将叙利亚库尔德战士整编为一个叙利亚阿拉伯联盟——外加逊尼派部落战士和亚述基督教民兵组织——恰恰凸显了逊尼派阿拉伯的漏洞。The US and its allies are right that, if the Assads stay in place, there is little chance of enlisting mainstream Sunni sentiment against Isis. But, as things stand, Russia and Iran are not wrong in saying there is as yet no plausible alternative to fill a new vacuum if the Assads go. Ba’athist Syria was built as a security state almost impossible to disentangle from the Assad clan, with Alawites as its praetorian guard.美国及其盟友的说法是对的:如果阿萨德继续在位,就没什么希望争取到主流逊尼派持打击ISIS。但是,从当前形势看,俄罗斯和伊朗也没错:如果阿萨德倒台,暂时没有可信的替代选择。有阿拉维派作为阿萨德家族的禁卫军,阿拉伯复兴社会党(Baathist)掌控的叙利亚被打造成了一个集权国家,几乎无法与阿萨德家族撇清关系。The lack of mainstream Sunni leadership is a blight across the region, which offers instead varieties of Sunni supremacism. Isis, a hybrid of al-Qaeda in Iraq and Ba’athist officers from Saddam Hussein’s army, disbanded by the US after 2003, is obviously the most virulent. But the big Sunni powers Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt are diluted flavours of this poison to which they claim to be the antidote.缺少主流逊尼派的领导成为整个地区的祸根,相反,这里产生了各式各样的逊尼派至上主义。ISIS——由伊拉克基地组al-Qaeda)和萨达姆侯赛Saddam Hussein)的军队(2003年后被美国解散)的复兴党军官组成的混合体——显然是毒性最强的。但是,较大的逊尼派势力——沙特阿拉伯、土耳其和埃及——都是这种毒药稀释后的版本,而非它们所号称的解药。Saudi Arabia, Washington’s main Sunni Arab ally, has told both the US and Russia its overriding concern is the march of Shia Iranian influence across the Arab world. Its sectarian Wahhabi strain of Sunni Islam competes with Isis as to which is the more effective hammer of the Shia. Turkey under the increasingly autocratic presidency of Recep Tayyip Erdogan has seen its presumption of leading a neo-Ottoman Sunni revival boil down to a revived war with its Kurdish minority. Neither power is carrying the fight to Isis.美国主要的逊尼派阿拉伯盟友沙特阿拉伯已向美国和俄罗斯表明,它的首要顾虑是什叶派的伊朗在整个阿拉伯世界影响力不断扩大。在谁是打击什叶派的最强有力的大锤的问题上,沙特的逊尼派分、宗派主义的瓦哈比教派和ISIS相互竞争。由日益威权的总统雷杰普吠伊普埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)主政的土耳其,把领导新奥斯曼主义逊尼派复兴的关键视为与该国库尔德少数派重启战争。这两个大国都没有积极打击ISIS。Egypt, after the 2013 coup against an elected Islamist government, has turned back towards a police state. Its presumption to being the Arab world’s intellectual powerhouse has to be measured against the fact that Al-Azhar, its millennium-old centre of Sunni learning, only this year excised from its curriculum early Islamic teaching on slavery, taxes due from non-Muslims, apostasy and jihad the stock-in-trade of Isis.013年的政变推翻了民选的伊斯兰主义政府后,埃及再次沦为极权国家。该国号称是阿拉伯世界的知识强国,但事实是,其逊尼派千年学府爱资哈尔大Al-Azhar University)今年才从教学大纲中清除了早期伊斯兰教义中的糟粕,包括奴隶制、向非穆斯林征税、叛教和圣战,这些正是ISIS的惯用手段。The Middle East desperately needs a Sunni counter-narrative that takes on board the rights of minorities as well as individuals. Only that will challenge the presumption of Shia Iran and the Isis brand of millenarian Sunni supremacism and start reassembling a disintegrating region into some sort of liveable shape.中东迫切需要一种逊尼派的“反叙述”,顾及少数派以及个人的权利。只有那种意识形态才能挑战什叶派伊朗和ISIS标榜的逊尼派至上主义——使这个分崩离析的地区再度开始成为适宜居住的地方。来 /201601/419976

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