2019年10月17日 04:49:23|来源:国际在线|编辑:中华门户
4.3% December fall in prices of new homes in big Chinese cities 9% Month-on-month rise in Chinese housing sales in December Prices of new homes in big Chinese cities fell 4.3 per cent in December from a year earlier, the largest drop since the current data series began in 2011, according to Financial Times calculations based on government figures released yesterday.The continuing downturn in the Chinese real estate market, which began at the start of last year, is creating ructions in Beijing and globally, as slower growth and rising debts in China ripple through international commodity markets.Property and related sectors account for nearly a quarter of China’s economy and analysts expect the downturn to continue this year, especially since bloated inventories grew throughout last year.“We expect the property downturn to continue in 2015 with greater downside risk to our current forecast,” said Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS.More positively, and in what some developers hope is the start of a turnround, December saw a rebound in housing sales volumes. Moreover, housing prices across China’s largest cities declined by a smaller margin month-on-month than they did in November or September.Beijing cut interest rates in November for the first time in two years and that, combined with looser government regulatory policy, pushed housing sales to their highest level in December, up 9 per cent from a month earlier.Ai Jingwei, a property market expert and author of Great Recession in China’s Property Market, said: “Despite some positive short-term signals, the current property downturn is far from over.“Given the huge inventory overhang, unfavourable demographic trends and the potential for local debt crises I expect the slump will last at least until the end of 2017 and possibly longer, even if we see some small temporary rebounds.”Much of China’s property construction has been funded by credit and there are concerns the slowdown could trigger localised debt crises.Cash-strapped local governments rely on land sales to fund basic services and most have taken on huge debt loads using land and real estate projects as collateral.“Local government finance vehicles” set up by governments across China are supposed to repay Rmb1.4tn in debt maturing this year, according to China Cheng Xin International Credit Rating, which is partly owned by Moody’s, the credit rating agency.Those same local finance vehicles borrowed Rmb1.6tn last year, up from about Rmb900bn each year in 2012 and 2013.China is set to publish its 2014 gross domestic product growth figures tomorrow, with the economy expected to have expanded at its slowest annual rate since 1990.英国《金融时报》根据中国政府昨日发布的数据进行的计算显示,中国去年12月大城市新房价格同比下降4.3%,这是当前数据系列从2011年开始以来的最大跌幅。始于去年初的中国房地产市场持续低迷,正在北京乃至全球制造不安,中国增长放缓而债务上升所引发的冲击波震荡国际大宗商品市场。房地产及相关行业占中国经济近四分之一,分析师们预计,此轮低迷将在今年继续,尤其是因为去年全年期间存量不断膨胀。“我们预计房地产低迷将在2015年持续,我们目前的预测面临的下行风险更大,”瑞银(UBS)首席中国经济学家汪涛表示。比较好的消息是,12月住房销售出现反弹,一些开发商希望这是局面扭转的开端。此外,12月中国大城市楼价的月度环比降幅小于11月和9月。去年11月,中国央行两年来首次降息,而政府调控政策有所放松。这些举措推动住房销售在12月达到最高水平,环比增长9%。房地产市场专家、《房市大衰退》作者艾经纬表示:“尽管有一些积极的短期信号,但当前的房地产低迷还远未结束。“鉴于巨大的过剩存量、不利的人口结构发展趋势以及爆发地方债务危机的可能性,我预计此轮低迷将至少持续到2017年末,甚至更久,即便我们看到一些小幅短暂反弹。”中国房地产建设的很大一部分资金来自信贷,目前有人担忧,楼市放缓可能触发局部的债务危机。资金紧张的中国地方政府靠卖地收入来维持基本务,大多数地方政府以土地和房地产项目为抵押,背上了巨大的债务负担。信用评级机构穆迪(Moody’s)部分持股的中诚信国际信用评级公司(CCXI)称,中国各地政府成立的“地方政府融资工具”今年理应偿还1.4万亿元人民币的到期债务。这些“融资工具”去年借入1.6万亿元人民币,高于2012年和2013年的每年9000亿元人民币。中国将在明日发布2014年国内生产总值(GDP)增长数据,预计中国经济将出现自1990年以来最慢的年度增速。Award-winning CBS News correspondent Bob Simon, who covered many of the world#39;s major conflict zones over a five-decade career, was killed Wednesday night in a car crash in New York City. He was 73 years old.美国哥伦比亚广播公司(CBS)资深记者鲍勃#8226;西蒙星期三晚上在纽约市死于车祸,终年73岁。西蒙在50多年的新闻生涯中,曾在世界各地做过大量战地报道,并多次获奖。Authorities say Simon was a passenger in a car that struck another vehicle, then veered into metal barriers separating traffic lanes.纽约警方说,西蒙当时乘坐的一辆轿车冲撞了另一辆车后,转向撞上了金属交通隔离栏。Simon joined CBS News in 1967, covering campus demonstrations and inner city riots. His time as a war correspondent began in 1971, when he was sent to Saigon at the height of the Vietnam War, and was on one of the last helicopters to leave the besieged city as the U.S. withdrew in 1975.西蒙1967年加入哥伦比亚广播公司,曾报道过校园抗议和内城骚乱等重要事件。1971年,他在越南战争期间,作为战地记者前往西贡。1975年美军从越南撤离时,他乘坐最后一架直升机离开被围困的西贡。Simon spent 20 years as CBS News#39; chief Middle East correspondent beginning in 1987. He and three of his colleagues were captured by Iraqi forces at the start of the Persian Gulf War in January 1991, and spent 40 days in captivity. He also covered conflicts in Northern Ireland, Yugoslavia and Portugal.自1987年起,西蒙在20年间任CBS驻中东首席记者。1991年1月海湾战争刚刚爆发时,他与3名同事被伊拉克军方扣押了40天。他还报道过北爱尔兰、南斯拉夫和葡萄牙的冲突事件。He later became a regular correspondent for the network#39;s news magazine show ;60 Minutes; and its short-lived spinoff, ;60 Minutes II.; Simon won numerous prestigious journalism awards during his career, including 27 Emmys.他后来成为CBS新闻杂志节目《60分钟》及其时间不长的续集《60分钟II》的常任记者。西蒙在其新闻生涯中获得过大量奖项,其中包括27项艾美奖。 /201502/360365

A new ed Nations report says Afghanistan#39;s judicial system is still failing women, even with the Islamic fundamentalist Taliban out of power.联合国一份最新报告说,尽管伊斯兰原教旨主义的塔利班不再执政,但阿富汗的司法体系仍对妇女不公。The report released Sunday says only 5 percent of cases of violence against women result in punishment for the criminals.这份星期天公布的报告说,在侵犯妇女的案件中,只有5%的罪犯得到惩罚。The reports also says many Afghan women are financially dependent on the men who attack them.报告还说,很多阿富汗妇女在经济上依赖侵犯他们的男子。Afghanistan#39;s constitution guarantees equal rights for women. Educational and job opportunities for women have improved in recent years.阿富汗宪法保妇女享有同等权利,近几年来妇女在教育和就业机会等方面有所改善。But the report says cultural and family pressure, along with alleged corruption and abuse of power by judicial officials, leaves many women feeling as if there is nowhere they can find justice.但是报告说,文化和家庭压力,以及司法官员被指腐败和滥用职权,使许多妇女感到申冤无门。U.N. officials urge the Afghan government to strengthen access to justice for women by adopting institutional and policy reforms, and enforcing laws protecting them from violence.联合国官员敦促阿富汗政府通过机构和政策改革,切实执行保护妇女免遭暴力侵犯的法律,进而加强妇女获得司法保护的机会。 /201504/370869

Toyota and Honda picked a bad time to take their foot off the accelerator in China. As the global car market went into a financial crisis-induced tailspin in 2008, Chinese demand kept expanding, accounting for one-third of the industry’s total growth over the ensuing five years. 丰田(Toyota)和本田(Honda)在中国市场放缓扩张的时机很糟糕。2008年,全球汽车市场陷入由金融危机引起的直线下跌,但中国的需求仍保持增长,在随后五年占全球汽车业总增长的三分之一。 Last year, annual sales of passenger cars and minivans remained 9 and 14 per cent below their pre-crisis peaks in the US and western Europe respectively, and recovered to 2007 levels in Japan, according to automotive consultancy AlixPartners. 汽车咨询公司艾睿铂(AlixPartners)统计显示,去年,美国和西欧乘用车和小型货车年销量分别比危机之前最高水平低9%和14%,日本则恢复了2007年的水平。 Meanwhile, sales in China’s market more than doubled to 18.6m, making it the world’s largest. “The downturn didn’t really happen in China,” says Bill Russo, a former US auto executive and Beijing-based industry consultant. “China’s share of the global market rose significantly in 2009 and 2010.” 与此同时,中国市场的销量增加一倍以上,达到1860万辆,成为世界最大汽车市场。曾是美国汽车业高管、现在驻北京的汽车咨询师罗威(Bill Russo)说:“中国并没有真的发生低迷,2009年和2010年,中国占全球市场的份额显著上升。” Toyota and Honda missed the party. Together with Nissan, the “big three” Japanese auto companies’ combined share of the China market crashed from more than one-quarter to just 15 per cent in the first half year on year. 丰田和本田错过了机会。加上日产(Nissan),这三大日本汽车公司今年上半年在中国市场的总份额从去年同期的逾25%下降到只有15%。 Toyota and Honda at least have some interesting excuses. Japanese car companies make for easy targets in China, especially at times of political tension between Asia’s two largest economies. 丰田和本田至少有一些有意思的借口。日本汽车公司在中国很容易成为攻击目标,特别是在亚洲两大经济体之间出现政治紧张的时候。 Chinese nationalist passions boiled over in September last year, after the Japanese government purchased the disputed Senkaku Islands – known in China as the Diaoyu – from their private owner. Japanese car companies briefly halted production as angry crowds targeted their cars and dealerships. 去年9月,日本政府从私人所有者买下有争议的尖阁诸岛(Senkaku Islands,中国称钓鱼岛及其附属岛屿)之后,中国民族主义情绪高涨。愤怒的民众将日本汽车及其经销商作为攻击对象,迫使日本汽车公司暂时停产。 Some Chinese drivers cleverly presented the mob with a moral dilemma – and saved their Japanese cars – by plastering the vehicles with stickers of Chinese flags and other patriotic symbols. 一些中国司机比较明智地在车上贴了中国国旗和其他爱国主义符号的贴纸,让那些打砸的人在道德上陷入两难境地——籍此拯救自己的日本品牌车。 “We lost 50 per cent in sales immediately,” Carlos Ghosn, chief executive of Nissan, said as he delivered first-half results earlier this month. The carmaker is yet to regain the 7.7 per cent market share it enjoyed before the dispute. 日产首席执行官卡洛斯#8226;戈恩(Carlos Ghosn)11月发布上半年销量时说:“我们的销量很快就下降50%。”日产的市场占有率依然没有恢复争端爆发之前的7.7%。 Toyota’s vehicle sales also dropped rapidly, with many customers cancelling orders and shunning showrooms. It was forced to reduce production temporarily in some plants by as much as 60 per cent. 丰田的汽车销量也急剧下降,很多客户取消订单,也不再去丰田展厅。丰田被迫临时减产,一些工厂减产60%。 Japanese auto executives admit that the severity of the incident took them by surprise, given that previous geopolitical flare-ups had not seriously affected production. 鉴于以往的地缘政治冲突并没有严重影响汽车生产,日本汽车高管承认,此次事件的严重性让他们意外。 “Japanese carmakers always feel that [when it comes to] doing business in China we don’t stand on the same point as western carmakers,” says one industry insider. “We always have to overcome these past political problems.” 一位业内人士说:“日本汽车制造商始终感觉,在中国做生意,我们与西方汽车制造商所处的地位不同。我们永远需要克过去的政治问题。” Ivo Naumann, AlixPartners’ Shanghai-based managing director, says: “The biggest problem [with these incidents] is on the dealer side. If sales decline or your windows get smashed every three or four years because of some stupid political issue, you ask whether you should continue.” 艾睿铂驻上海董事总经理罗曼(Ivo Naumann)说:“这些事件给经销商带来的问题最严重。如果销量下降或者由于愚蠢的政治问题每三、四年门店被砸,那么你就该问问要不要坚持下去了。” A series of industrial actions in 2010 that marked the beginning of the end of China’s cheap labour advantage also primarily affected Japanese car plants in southern China. The striking auto workers drew on lingering resentment over their country’s former wartime adversary. 2010年标志着中国廉价劳动力优势时代进入尾声的一系列劳工行动,也主要影响到位于中国南方的日本汽车工厂。罢工的汽车工人利用了中国人对日本侵华那段历史的耿耿于怀。 Many analysts, however, do not accept that geopolitics has been the main reason for Toyota and Honda’s poor performance in China over recent years. 然而,很多分析师并不认为地缘政治是丰田和本田近年在中国表现糟糕的主要原因。 They point instead to inadequate plant expansions, low levels of localisation and other strategic errors that were made before Sino-Japanese relations hit their latest low point. 他们认为,真正的原因是工厂扩建不到位、本地化程度不够高,以及在中日关系跌至最近的低谷之前犯下的其他战略错误。 After last year’s turmoil, Toyota’s sales this September rose 45 per cent year on year, according to market research consultancy LMC Automotive, which collates data for every operator in the market, while Honda and Nissan’s China business doubled. 市场研究咨询机构LMC Automotive统计显示,经过去年的动荡后,丰田今年9月的销量同比增长45%,本田和日产在中国的销量翻番。LMC Automotive整理分析市场上每一家经营者的数据。 But all three companies’ sales over the first three quarters of 2013 remained largely flat or slightly down versus the same period last year, even as the overall market grew a robust 15 per cent. 但这三家公司2013年前三季度的销量基本与去年同期持平或者略微下降,尽管整体市场强劲增长了15%。 “The Japanese took a negative view of the market,” says Mr Naumann. “They simply ran out of capacity. There was demand but they just couldn’t supply it.” 罗曼说:“日本企业对市场看法消极,很简单,他们的产能不够。需求是存在的,但他们就是无法供应。” Toyota in particular, he adds, badly underestimated how fast the market would grow. 他补充说,丰田尤其低估了中国市场增长的速度。 Toyota enjoyed a bumper 2008 in China, attaining a 10 per cent market share and becoming the country’s second-best-selling brand, after Volkswagen. 2008年,丰田在中国取得佳绩,占市场份额的10%,成为中国汽车市场第二大畅销品牌,仅次于大众(Volkswagen)。 But as the global financial crisis took hold, it froze development of a major plant in Changchun, a northeastern industrial centre, and delayed approval for capacity increases at other facilities. 但随着全球金融危机全面爆发,丰田冻结了中国东北工业重镇长春一家大厂的施工建设,还推迟批准其他工厂的产能扩充计划。 The Changchun plant, originally slated to have begun manufacturing in 2010, finally opened last year with an annual capacity of 100,000 vehicles. “We never thought of [China] as an El Dorado,” one Toyota executive admits. 长春的工厂原计划在2010年投产,结果拖到去年才开工,年产量为10万辆。丰田的一位高管承认:“我们没想到中国会成为黄金市场。” GM is now firmly entrenched in the number two slot. 通用汽车(GM)现在稳坐第二的位置。 Some analysts are optimistic that Toyota and Honda have learnt from their mistakes and can bounce back, although it will be a difficult task in what is now the most competitive national market in the history of the auto industry. More than 100 manufacturers are active in China including every major multinational car company. 一些分析师乐观地认为,丰田和本田已经吸取教训并且能够恢复元气,尽管这将是一项艰巨的任务——中国已成为汽车业史上竞争最激烈的市场。100多家汽车制造商活跃在中国市场,包括所有大型跨国汽车公司。 “They will regain market share,” says Mr Naumann. “They are still formidable companies. They still have excellent cars.” 罗曼说:“日本企业将重获市场份额。他们依然是令人敬畏的企业。他们依然生产一流的汽车。” Tatsuo Yoshida, auto analyst at Barclays, also believes Japanese manufacturers are at last addressing their deficiencies in China after concerns about intellectual property protection had for years dissuaded them from developing more vehicles there. But he expects that the US will remain their key market. 巴克莱(Barclays)汽车分析师吉田龙夫(Tatsuo Yoshida)也认为,由于担忧知识产权难以保护,多年来日本汽车制造商不愿在华研发更多汽车,但它们现在终于开始应对自己在中国的不足。但他预计美国仍将是它们的关键市场。 /201312/266990

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