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明星资讯腾讯娱乐2019年09月21日 18:04:16
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Its time just to find out what the fox says.是时候揭晓狐狸是怎么叫的Please welcome all the way from Norway.请大家欢迎来自挪威的Ylvis everybody.Oh,you dont know how excited I am that youre both here.ylvis 你们不知道你们俩都来了 我有多激动Okay. Whos Buard,whos Beguard?谁是buard 谁是beguardIm Buard,hes Veguard. you are...Buard and Veguard,yeah.我是buard,他是veguard,你是 buard 和veguard啊 是的And do you...youre brothers?And do you have other siblings?Yeah,we have one.你们是两兄弟吗 你们还有其它兄弟吗 有一个兄弟Hes actually flying helicopters in Portland.他在波兰当直升机飞行员Oh,he lives in Portland. yeah.Its not faraway. I see.他住在波兰啊 是的 也不是很远 确实 明白了Well, and does he sing as well?Im sure he does. he does sing.那他也唱歌吗 确实他也唱歌他也唱Not like this ,but he does sing. right.确实是的 不过不像我们一样唱 好的So you did this... you have a variety show in Norway right?你们在挪威有一个节目对吧Yeah, is that a variety show or talk show?Its a talk show.是综艺节目还是脱口秀是脱口秀Its mainly... a talk show. its a talk show.主要是 脱口秀Weve done some variety shows and stage shows.我们也做一些综艺节目和舞台秀But this whole was part of our talk show. ok.这个视频也是我们节目的一个环节So this was...youve been on two years,这是你们的 你们的节目播出两季了and this was to launch your third season right?thats right.这是你们的第三季 是的And you purposely try to make it bad你们有意把这个视频做成这样and look what youve done,did you try... I mean看看你们的杰作 你们是 我是说that was the intention right?Its...那就是你们想要的效果 其实Its a funny story. because we...this is ...its actually a favor,其实有点搞笑 这是请别人帮忙做的cause the guys helped us produced it,因为帮我们制作的那些人thats a production team called Stargate, and theyre Norwegians,他们是一个团队 挪威的一个团队and theyve like made big hits,他们做过一些很流行单曲Beyonce,Rhianna and whatnot. yeah.像Beyonce、Rhianna的啦 等等 恩And they asked us to do them a favor.他们曾经请我们帮过忙And we asked them to do us a favor in return.然后我们反过来请他们帮个忙So we thought okay.我们就像 那如果是这样的话If we give them a crap idea.我们何不想个很烂的点子注:EllenShow中英字幕来源于:艾伦秀字幕组 /201311/264685

Leaders-Britain社论Britains floods洪水泛滥大不列颠Canute Cameron卡梅伦祸从口出The prime ministers response to the floods has been patchy; but it is wrong to blame him for them首相治洪引发质疑,归咎于他有失公允BIBLICAL—that is how David Cameron described the floods sping misery through southern England.过去几周,英格兰南部洪灾泛滥,数千公顷农场一片汪洋,Thousands of hectares of farmland have been under water for weeks and over 5,000 houses abandoned.五千家庭流离失所,无奈之际首相卡梅伦称之为上帝的旨意。Local railways are damaged and their services in chaos. Soldiers have been deployed to leafy Thames-side suburbs, where looters were rumoured to be splashing through abandoned stckbrokers palaces.如今,洪灾区铁路中断,公共务陷入混乱。政府已经调遣军队维持泰晤士河沿岸洪水侵蚀地区的治安,据称大量歹徒已经将被富人遗弃的豪宅洗劫一空。The prime minister was scarcely exaggerating;对于此次洪水的破坏力,卡梅伦丝毫没有夸大其词。yet his recourse to scripture also invited the uncomfortable question of who, exactly, is to blame.然而,首相引经据典的说辞却引发了一个尴尬的问题,即谁该对此次洪水负责。The question matters to Mr Cameron.对于卡梅伦来说,这个问题至关重要。His reputation for competence underpins his partys electoral chances.是否具备应对危机的能力,关系着其党内选举成败。He may be able to brush off the councillor from the UK Independence Party who saw the floods as divine retribution for the prime ministers successful campaign to legalise gay marriage.卡梅伦此前顺利通过同性恋婚姻合法化提案,英国独立党议员认为这是上帝对他的惩罚,对此卡梅伦或许可以选择漠视。But British newspapers are full of semi-submerged people blaming his government for their plight:然而,英国报纸上充斥着灾区人民将自己现在的困境归咎于政府:73% of Britons support a Daily Mail campaign to divert money to flood victims from Mr Camerons unloved foreign-aid budget.据《每日镜报》发起一项调查表明,73%的英国国民希望将卡梅伦不受国人待见的国外援助预算用于此次洪水受灾群众。There is even an echo of the opprobrium thrown at George Bush for his useless response to Hurricane Katrina.甚至有人旧事重提,将席卷美国的飓风卡特里娜造成的严重灾害归责与小布什的应对不力,以此含沙射影指责卡梅伦。Some of these recriminations are justified.上述部分指责并非毫无根据。In the Environment Agency, which is charged with keeping water in its proper place,requested an annual increase in spending on flood defences.年,负责治理河道的英国环境局,曾提出增加年度防洪预算。This was not unreasonable: more people are living in flood-prone areas, and global warming is likely to lead to more extreme weather.这也是现实所需,很多人居住在易发洪涝区,全球气候变暖很有可能会导致更多极端天气。The agencys budget for capital expenditure has instead been cut by 28%.然而,防洪预算不但未增加,反而减少了28%。The extra cash now promised must be spent on repairing damaged defences, not investing in new ones.现今政府许诺增加的预算势必会用于修复损毁防御设施,而无法投资新建。It was a failure characteristic of a government that has too often sacrificed long-term spending on infrastructure to the exigencies of short-term belt-tightening.政府常常会牺牲掉用于基础设施的长期预算,弥补短期节省开造成的经济状况,这是政府失职的表现之一。The governments initial response to the disaster was also poor.对于英国国内的洪灾,政府最初的反应同样令人不敢恭维。Mr Cameron implied the flooding on the Somerset Levels, an area of land below sea-level, had been exacerbated by a decision to stop dredging the man-made rivers that drain it.卡梅伦暗示称由于此前政府终止了用于排涝的人工河疏浚工程,低于海平面的Somerset Levels地区的洪灾影响加重。That suggested the last, Labour, government was to blame.这表明上届政府,工党政府需要对此负责。Yet dredging would at best have mitigated the flooding only a bit.然而,即便是用于排涝的人工河得以疏浚,也只是稍微减小此次洪水的危害。The Environment Agency is right to give low priority to protecting farmland. Towns are more valuable.英国环境局不优先考虑保护农场的决定是正确的,城镇更为重要。Torn between conflicting desires to appear in control of the calamity and blameless for the suffering, other ministers blathered.在治理洪灾过程中,不同利益群体的矛盾开始显现,英国其他部长开始喋喋不休,互相推诿责任。Eric Pickles, the communities secretary, sniped at the Environment Agency—which is led, not coincidentally, by Lord Smith, a Labour Party grandee.社区大臣埃里克?皮克斯抨击由工党要员史密斯勋爵领导的环境局,绝非偶然。Other Tories unconvincingly blamed their usual bogeys:难以置信的是其他托利党成员谴责一贯被英国妖魔化的对象:the European Union, on the basis of one directive or other, and the Liberal Democrats, their main rival in the south-west.欧盟,理由是其指挥不力,他们还谴责国内西南地区的主要竞选对手自由民主党。For a government that takes pride in its efficiency, this was a shambles—and one seized on not just by Labour but by Mr Camerons many enemies in the press and his own party.对于一个向来以高效引以为豪的政府来说,这简直是倒退。这一点不仅会被工党,而且会被卡梅伦的敌对媒体及自身保守党内,都会借题发挥。It never rains but it pours不鸣则已,一鸣惊人How much this will hurt Mr Cameron electorally is unclear: most of the flooded areas are safe Tory seats.这会对卡梅伦的连任选举造成多达影响尚不得而知:大部分被淹地区都是可靠的保守党议员。But the scale of the opprobrium is wildly unfair.但是,对卡梅伦的广泛指责有失公允。That is partly because Mr Cameron has got his act together, promising the acceleration of insurance payouts, giving affected companies more time to meet tax obligations and stopping the ministerial blather.原因之一是卡梅伦已经开始有条不紊的采取相应措施,承诺加快各项保险赔付,允许受灾地区公司延后纳税,勒令停止部门之间的口水战。But the bigger reason is simple: in this instance virtually all the blame should fall not on the government but on that other British bugbear, the weather.但是,引发洪灾的主要原因不言而喻:事实上这次洪水灾害不应全部归责于政府,而是归咎于英国恶劣的天气,Recent weeks have been the wettest in a century.近几周的降雨量创英国过去一个世纪历史新高。A giant storm surge and some of the biggest waves on record have contributed to a triple whammy of flash floods, waterlogging and burst riverbanks.暴风雨激增,有史以来最大的波浪都助涨了此次迅猛的洪流、积水,这些都对河岸形成了强烈的冲击。Even if Mr Cameron had the wisdom of Solomon and the wealth of Croesus, he could not have prevented the flooding.即便卡梅伦有所罗门的智慧、克里萨斯王的财富,也无法阻止此次洪水。With climate science indicating that future inundations are more likely, Britons will therefore have to assume more responsibility for their own property.气候科学表明英国未来或许会遭遇更多洪水,Anyone tempted to build or buy a house on a flood-plain or low-lying sea front should think again.任何打算在冲积平原或者海平面以下地区建造或购买房屋的人都需要三思而后行。And on this subject, at least, they should stop blaming Mr Cameron.无论如何,至少对于此次洪灾,他们不应在谴责卡梅伦。 201402/277295

Books and Arts; Book Review;History of diplomacy;Dealing with the enemy;文艺;书评;外交往事;应敌之策;George Kennan invented the American post-war policy of “containment” of the Soviet Union. His biography, 30 years in the making, fills in the detail;乔治·凯南是战后美国对苏“遏制”政策的始作俑者。他这本耗时30年而成的传记,充满了“遏制”政策的点点滴滴;George F. Kennan: An American Life. By John Lewis Gaddis.乔治·凯南:大国之策 约翰·加迪斯著。Three decades ago George Kennan— former American ambassador to Moscow, multilingual diplomat and conceptualiser of “containment”, the heart of his countrys foreign policy towards the Soviet Union—agreed to allow an American cold-war historian, John Lewis Gaddis, to serve as his biographer. Kennan had decamped from public service to the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton more than 20 years earlier and was aly 78 years old. When he began giving Mr Gaddis interviews and stacks of personal papers in 1981, their understanding was that the biography would appear in the presumably not-too-distant future after the elder mans passing.三十年前,乔治·凯南—前美国驻莫斯科大使,掌握多种语言的外交官,美国对苏外交核心“遏制”政策的始作俑者—同意由美国冷战历史学者约翰·加迪斯为其撰写传记。那时,已78岁高龄的乔治·凯南,早退出政界在普林斯顿高级研究院从事研究已超过二十个年头。1981年起乔治·凯南开始与约翰·加迪斯会面并给予后者大堆个人资料,两人商定乔治·凯南的传记将在其过世后不久的将来面世。Decades of interviews later, Mr Gaddis, who is now 70, had become accustomed to his students “speculating sombrely about which of us might go first”. Even Kennan felt sorry for “poor John”; in 2003 he lamented the “serious burden” of his own “unnatural longevity”. It was only in 2005, when death finally claimed Kennan at the age of 101, that Mr Gaddis could begin thinking about publishing this long-awaited biography.自两人会面后的几十年里,如今已古稀之年的约翰·加迪斯已经习惯了让他的学生们“严肃地预测一下我们两个谁会先走一步“。即便是乔治·凯南也对约翰·加迪斯心怀愧疚;2003年他曾为自己的“超然长寿”带来的“不堪重负”而悲叹不已。2005年,101岁的乔治·凯南终于等到了生命的终点,也是从那时起,约翰·加迪斯才可以开始考虑出版这本经历了漫长等待的传记了。The extraordinary length of the books gestation meant that much changed between conception and publication. Had it appeared in the mid-1980s, the context would have been cold-war stalemate; in the early 1990s, celebration; a decade ago in 2001, concern about terrorism. Because “George F. Kennan: An American Life” finally arrives in the uneasy year of 2011, its context is economic misery and questions about the future of American dominance in international affairs.这本书无与伦比的超长“妊娠期”意味着其起初构思与最终出版之间的多次变更。在书中,80年代中期的背景主要是冷战僵局;90年代早期是庆祝冷战胜利;2001年之后的十年主要涉及反恐。熬到了经历漫长艰辛最终出版的2011年,背景则又成了经济困局和对美国将来是否能主导全球事务的疑问。Mr Gaddis is unequivocal on this topic. He told the New York Times in 2004 that “American imperial power…has been a remarkable force for good, for democracy, for prosperity.” He has also expressed his admiration for the former presidents, Ronald Reagan and George Bush junior, and their versions of “grand strategy”, a topic he now teaches at Yale University. All of these developments have naturally given rise to much speculation. Could Mr Gaddis, who admits that he speaks no foreign languages, get on top of the mountain of material and do credit to such an international polymath? Would his own views emerge along with Kennans? The 784-page answer to both these questions is yes.约翰·加迪斯对每一个话题都不含糊。2004年他曾告诉《纽约时报》的记者:“美利坚帝国有种非常不平凡的力量,一种使之优秀、民主、繁荣的力量。”同时他也表达了对前总统里根和小布什以及他们的“伟大战略”的敬佩之意,这也是他在耶鲁大学教授的课题。这些言语自然引起了人们进一步的猜测。承认自己不懂外语的约翰·加迪斯,能否征堆积如山的资料,为乔治·凯南这样的国际大家赢得赞颂?他的观点是否来自乔治·凯南?这部厚达784页的作品肯定的回答了这两个问题。Mr Gaddis has mastered the sources that came his way over the decades. The resulting biography is engaging and lucid. The first half of the book almost has the sweep of a novel. Readers join Kennan in Germany as the Nazis rise; in Norway in 1931 as the awkward young man meets the parents of his fiancée, to whom he would remain married for 73 years; in the Soviet Union in 1933 as he establishes the first American embassy; in Czechoslovakia as Adolf Hitler arrives and the world descends into another war; and back in Moscow again in 1945 when he receives skin-crawling personal compliments from Joseph Stalin on his Russian language skills. The chapter detailing Kennans breakthrough—achieved by redesigning American foreign policy at a stroke, via his 5,000-word “Long Telegram” from Moscow to Washington, DC, in 1946—is particularly gripping. As he himself put it: “My reputation was made. My voice now carried.”约翰·加迪斯掌握着几十年里符合自己观点的资源,所创作出的传记引人入胜又清晰明了。传记的前半部读起来几乎就是一部小说的翻版。读者们一起与乔治·凯南在纳粹兴起时造访德国;1931年在挪威,一起与这位笨拙的青年会见之后陪伴了他73载未婚妻的父母;1933年与之一起建立美国第一个驻苏联大使馆;和他一道与希特勒一起来到捷克斯洛伐克并目睹了第二次世界大战;之后又一块在斯大林对其俄语技巧令人起鸡皮疙瘩般的恭维下于1945年返回莫斯科。而描写乔治·凯南事业取得重大突破的章节—在1946年通过其从莫斯科发往华盛顿的5,000字“长电”,一举改写了美国外交政策—尤为精。就如同乔治·凯南自己给自己的评价一样:“功成名就,四海扬声。”Before this, Kennan was a promising young officer in the American foreign service; after it, he joined the top ranks of American strategists. His arguments convinced the Truman administration that efforts to continue wartime co-operation with Russia were fruitless. America should recognise the Soviet Union as a new kind of enemy, one seeking to destroy “our traditional way of life”. Rather than fighting a conventional war, America would need to contain Soviet hostility firmly and consistently over the long term. As America resisted Moscow more and more, Kennan felt it was crucial that his country maintain the “health and vigour of our own society” and not become a garrison state.而在那之前,乔治·凯南不过是美国外交界里颇有前途的小青年,之后则位列顶级战略家之层。他的论据实了杜鲁门政府继续与苏联战时合作的努力终究无果。美国应当把苏联做为一个新的,一个试图摧毁“我们传统的生活方式”的敌人来认识,应当放弃传统的战争方式,坚决地包纳苏联的敌意并长期持之以恒。随着美苏争霸的愈演愈烈,乔治·凯南意识到,对美国来讲最关键的是保持“我们这个社会的健康与活力”而不是变成一个堡垒式的国家。After the “Long Telegram”, Kennan returned to Washington and founded the State Departments influential Policy Planning Staff. But, according to Mr Gaddis, his prestige had peaked by 1948. After that, Kennan became increasingly sidelined for opposing what he judged to be excessive militarisation of his containment strategy. Yet he continued to condemn overly militarised policies for the rest of his life.“长电”之后,乔治·凯南返回华盛顿,组建了国务院颇具影响力的机构政策计划处。不过根据约翰·加迪斯的讲述,其名望在1948年达到了顶峰。之后由于抵制其认为的过度军事化遏制政策而逐步边缘化。而乔治·凯南终其余生都在谴责过度军事化的政策。Kennan took particular offence at the attitude of the Reagan administration, which he viewed as “simply childish, inexcusably childish, unworthy of people charged with the responsibility for conducting the affairs of a great power in an endangered world.” Nor did the end of the cold war change his mind. In 1992 Kennan made a point of stating that “nobody ‘won the cold war”. It had been a long, costly tragedy, “fuelled on both sides by unreal and exaggerated estimates of the intentions and strength of the other side.”对于里根政府,乔治·凯南的态度尤其地冒犯,他认为里根“简单幼稚,无法理解地天真,根本不配担负起在有危险的世界指导一个超级大国事务如此之重任。”冷战结束后他也没有改变自己的看法。1992年乔治·凯南曾阐述自己的观点,认为“冷战无赢家”。这场旷日持久,代价高昂的悲剧,“将对另一方意图和力量进行了不现实和扩大估算的双方同时埋葬。”Mr Gaddis disagrees. He closes his study by condemning Kennan for having “blinded” himself to the fact that, in Mr Gaddiss opinion, Reagan brought Kennans “strategy to its successful conclusion”. If Kennan were alive, he would probably still disagree, and not without reason. If the elder mans concern for the costs of bellicose foreign policy, rather than the younger mans enthusiasm for imperial exercise of American power, had dominated the last decade, it would have made for a sounder grand strategy. In ways that this biography seems not entirely to appreciate, Kennans far-sighted opposition to American over-militarisation makes his personal career history less gripping than his legacy.约翰·加迪斯对此并不认同。在传记结尾他责备了乔治·凯南对事实的“视而不见”,按照约翰·加迪斯的观点,是里根的采纳“成就”了乔治·凯南的战略。但是如果乔治·凯南还健在,他可能还会反对,而且还自有道理。如果这位老人担心的是好战外交政策所付出的代价,而不是在其后的十年起决定性作用的青年人对美国超级力量运用的热情,那么它将会是一个更加合理的宏伟战略。如此来看这部传记对乔治·凯南也不全是赞誉,乔治·凯南颇有远见地反对美国过度军事化使其个人职业生涯的精程度比其传记略逊一筹。 /201304/236955

  Obituary逝者Aaron Swartz艾伦·施瓦茨Aaron Swartz, computer programmer and activist, committed suicide on January 11th, aged 26艾伦·施瓦茨,计算机程序员、活动家,1月11日自杀身亡,享年26岁SMALL, dark, cluttered places were important in the life of Aaron Swartz. His days were spent hunched in his bedroom over his MacBook Pro, his short-sighted eyes nearly grazing the screen, in a litter of snaking cables and hard drives. In the heady days of 2005 when he was developing Reddit, now the webs most popular bulletin board, he and his three co-founders shared a house in Somerville, Massachusetts, where he slept in a cupboard. And it was in a cupboard—an unlocked wiring cupboard, where a homeless man kept stuff—that in November 2010 he surreptitiously placed a laptop, hidden under a box, and plugged it directly into the computer network at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.狭小、幽暗、凌乱的空间,在艾伦·施瓦茨的生命中担当着重要角色。他会成天抱着自己的高端苹果笔记本猫在卧室里,身边全是缠杂的线缆和散乱的硬盘。由于近视,他的眼睛几乎快要贴到屏幕上,于是他曾问自己:笔记本的屏幕为何不与眼睛在同一水平线?2005年是让他沉醉的日子:现在网上最热门的公告板Reddit,就是他和其他三位创始人一道在那年开发的。那时,他们在麻省的萨默维尔市合住一套房子,而施瓦茨就睡在一个板柜里。2010年10月,同样也是在一个板柜里,他偷偷地在一个盒子下面藏了一台笔记本:那是一个没有上锁的配线柜,被一名流浪者当作了储物间;从这里,施瓦茨的笔记本径直接入了麻省理工大学的电脑网络。His aim was to download as many pages as possible from an archive of academic journals called JSTOR, which was available by paid subscription only to libraries and institutions. That was morally wrong, he thought; the knowledge contained in it had to be made available, free, to everyone. And it was absurdly simple to do that. He aly had access to the library network; no need to hack into the system. He just ran a script, called keepgrabbing.py, which liberated 4.8m articles at almost dangerous speed. MIT tried to block him, but time after time he outwitted them; and then, as a last resort, he plugged in the laptop in the cupboard.他的目的,是要从学术期刊存储系统JSTOR上尽量多下载些内容。JSTOR只对付费图书馆和院校机构开放,而这在他看来有违道义:毕竟其中的知识往往都是公共资助的成果,所以必须向所有人免费开放。而且,开放这些信息的方法简单得离谱:他已能进入图书馆的网络,因此没有必要使用黑客手段;所以他只是调用了一个名为“keepgrabbing.py”的脚本,就让480万篇文章脱离了JSTOR的禁锢,如此骇人的速度令该系统几近崩溃。麻省理工曾试图阻止他,却被他一次次地智胜。随后,他将藏在柜中的笔记本接入了网络,以此作为最后一着。He had form on this; lots of form. In 2006 he got hold of the book cataloguing data kept by the Library of Congress, usually steeply charged for, and posted them free in the Open Library. In he wormed his way into a free-access trial of the PACER system, which contains all electronic federal court records, in certain public libraries; he downloaded 19.9m pages of it, then uploaded them to the cloud, before anyone could stop him. Again, it was easy: using a small, elegant language called perl, the documents fell into his hands.他在这方面有过“前科”,而且次数不少。2006年,他拿到了国会图书馆的书目数据;这些信息往往需要高额费用方可获取,但却被他免费放到了“公共图书馆”上。年,他又在几家公立图书馆中,设法进入了PACER系统的免费试用务;该系统存有所有电子版的联邦法庭记录,他下载了其中的1990万页,并在有人可以阻止之前,上传到了云网络。这次行动同样易如反掌:他只用了精巧的Perl语言,就将文档拿到了手。He seemed to have been doing this for ever, writing programs to liberate information. At 12 or 13—a plump, bookish boy with a computer-company executive for a father and a very early Mac in the den—he set up theinfo.org, a sort of Wikipedia before the fact, which was going to contain all the worlds knowledge on one website. A mere year or so later he was working with Tim Berners-Lee, creator of the world wide web, to launch the Semantic Web to improve data-sharing, and developing RSS 1.0 to distribute s and news stories. He helped set up Creative Commons, too, which made copyright licensing simpler.编写程序,以让信息自由——这似乎就是他一直从事的工作。十二三岁时,施瓦茨还是个胖乎乎的小书虫,有个在电脑公司当老总的父亲,还有小屋里的一台古董苹果机。那时,包罗世间知识的维基百科还未问世,他就已经创建了一个同类网站:theinfo.org。仅约一年之后,他又联手互联网之父蒂姆·伯纳斯·李,发起了“语义网”项目来促进数据共享;同时,他还开发了用于视频和新闻传播的RSS 1.0规则。此外,他还协助创立了“知识共享”,这一项目同样简化了版权的授权。All this could have made him a fortune, but he had no interest in that. He wanted a world that was better, freer and more progressive. He dropped out of high school, then out of Stanford, educating himself instead by ing prodigious numbers of books, mostly philosophy. He made friends and fell loudly out with them because they couldnt be as perfectionist as he was. At gatherings he would turn up messy-haired and half-shaven, the shy nerds look, but with the intense dark gaze and sudden, confident grin of a young man out to turn society on its head.这一切原本可以让他发笔大财,但施瓦茨对此并无兴趣。他想要的是一个更加美好、更加自由、更加进步的世界。他没有念完中学,此后又从斯坦福辍学。他的自学途径是阅读大量的书籍,多半是哲学书。他结交了一些朋友,又和他们吵得面红耳赤,因为他们无法像他一样追求完美。他会带着乱蓬蓬的头发和没刮净的胡子出现在聚会上,看上去像个痴迷技术的书呆子;但深邃的目光,以及突然绽放、充满自信的笑容,却正是一个试图倒转乾坤的青年所有。A lot of money came his way when Reddit was sold to Condé Nast in 2006, but relocation to an office made him miserable. Google offered him jobs, but he turned them down as unexciting. Political campaigning became his passion. He wanted to see everything available online, free, with nothing held back by elites or big money, and nothing censored. Information was power, as he proclaimed in his Guerrilla Open Access Manifesto of 2008, and war was needed “by stealth”, “in the dark”, “underground”, for the freedom to connect. In 2011 there was no fiercer voice against the Stop Online Piracy Act, and in 2012 no one prouder to proclaim it dead.2006年,Reddit被康泰纳仕集团收购,施瓦茨从中获利颇丰。不过,搬到办公室后的生活让他苦闷不已。谷歌邀请他加盟,但他以工作乏味为由拒绝。政治运动成了他的热爱:他希望看到,所有信息都可以在网上免费获取,没有什么能被上流人士或企业财阀阻隔,也没有什么会遭到审查。正如他2008年的《开放存取的游击宣言》一文所言,信息即是权力,网络互联的自由需要“暗地里秘密的地下”斗争。他的声音,在2011年抵制《禁止网络盗版法案》的运动中最为激烈,而在2012年宣布该法案“倒毙”时也最为自豪。The JSTOR business, however, got him into deep trouble. When he went back to the cupboard for his laptop, police arrested him. He was charged on 13 counts, including wire fraud and theft of information, and was to go on trial in the spring, facing up to 35 years of jail. The charges, brought by a federal prosecutor, were hugely disproportionate to what he had done; MIT and JSTOR had both settled with him, and JSTOR, as if chastened by him, had even opened some of its public-domain archive. But theft was theft, said the prosecution.然而JSTOR一事,却让他深陷困境。在回去取配线柜中的笔记本时,他被警方拘捕。一位联邦检察官对他提起13项指控,其中包括电信欺诈和信息窃取。此案原本定于今年春天开庭,届时他将面临最高35年的牢狱。但与他的行为相比,这些指控实在过重。况且,麻省理工和JSTOR都已同他和解,而JSTOR甚至开放了部分公共领域的内容。然而检方表示,盗窃毕竟是盗窃。Darkness to light从黑暗通向光明All this added to a weight that had oppressed him for many years. “Look up, not down,” he urged ers of his weblog; “Embrace your failings.” “Lean into the pain.” It was hard to take that advice himself. He kept getting ill, several illnesses at once. Migraines sliced into his scalp; his body burned. And he was sad most of the time, a sadness like streaks of pain running through him. Books, friends, philosophy, even blogs didnt help. He just wanted to lie in bed and keep the lights off.因为这一切,本已抑郁多年的施瓦茨更是不堪负重。虽然他曾恳请自己客的读者要“振作起来,不要灰心”、要“拥抱失败”、要“不畏痛苦”,但自己却很难接受同样的建议。他不断地生病,同时饱受着几种病痛的折磨:偏头痛有如刀割,身体也像着了火。而且他大多数时候都很忧伤,这忧伤就如阵阵病痛,侵蚀着他的全身。书籍、朋友、哲学甚至客都无济于事;他只想躺在床上,关上所有的灯光。In 2002 he posted instructions for after his death. To be in a grave would be all right, as long as he had access to oxygen and no dirt on top of him; and as long as all the contents of his hard drives were made publicly available, nothing deleted, nothing withheld, nothing secret, nothing charged for; all information out in the light of day, as everything should be.2002年时,施瓦茨就在网上为自己安排了身后事。在他看来,寄身墓室没什么大不了,只要可以接触氧气,只要没有污泥覆顶,只要自己硬盘上所有的内容都向公众开放—没有丝毫删节,没有丝毫保留,没有任何秘密,也没有任何资费。所有信息都坦露于天光之下,一如世间万物应有之态。 /201406/304438

  Juice may be tasty, but its not really that nutritious.果汁也许好喝,但并不怎么营养。While orange juice is an excellent source of vitamin, it doesnt contain a significant amount of other minerals and vitamins.橙汁富含维生素,而其他矿物质和维生素含量很少。Whats more, excessive juice consumption can cause all kinds of problems.再者,过度饮用果汁会造成各种问题。This is especially troubling when you keep in mind that children are the ones drinking most of the juice in this country.当你意识到在这个国家,儿童是果汁的主要消费群体时,尤为担心。You see, when you drink juice, youre getting mainly water and carbohydrates.你要知道,当饮用果汁时,你摄入的主要是水和碳水化合物。And if you drink too much, the high carbohydrate content can cause gas, bloating, and diarrhea.如果喝得太多,碳水化合物就会产生气体,引发胃胀和腹泻。Plus, juice has as many calories as soda, and, like soda, has been linked to the obesity epidemic raging in our country.另外,果汁的卡路里含量同苏打水一样多,而且,跟苏打水一样,它与我国肥胖症人数激增有关。Also, for children, juice often crowds out milk because it tastes better.对于儿童来说,选择果汁而不是牛奶,因为前者口感更好。Children who dont drink enough milk are more likely to suffer from calcium and vitamin D deficiencies.牛奶摄取不足的儿童,更容易缺钙和维生素D。In fact, in some parts of the country, rickets, which is caused by vitamin D deficiency, is on the rise.事实上,在我国的一些地区,由于缺乏维生素D,患佝偻病的人数正在上升。Finally, keeping a juice bottle in your mouth for a long time can promote tooth decay.最后,长期果汁不离口的人会增加齵齿的风险。The key to juice intake is moderation.喝果汁的关键是要适量。The American Academy of Pediatrics suggests that children under six should not drink more than six ounces of juice a day, and that older children shouldnt drink more than twelve ounces.美国儿科学会建议,六岁以下儿童一天的果汁饮用量不应超过六盎司,年长一点的儿童不应超过十二盎司。All children should be encouraged to go straight to the source and eat whole fruit, which contains more nutrients than juice, plus other good stuff, like fiber.应鼓励所有的儿童直接食用水果,水果的营养比果汁丰富,并且还含有其它对身体有益的物质 ,比如,纤维。 /201401/271847。

  

  Everyone is familiar with the sight of robins hopping around the yard, peering into the grass or “head-cocking” to locate a nice juicy worm. In no time, they find their prey and fly off with a mouthful.后院里,知更鸟跳来跳去,注视着草丛,晃头晃脑地搜寻着可口多汁的昆虫。这样的情景相信大家都不陌生。一旦发现“猎物”,它马上叼着虫儿飞走了。Cues to find prey寻找猎物的线索Birds are known to use visual, auditory, and possibly vibrations or tactile cues to find prey, but vision is predominant.通常鸟儿们是通过视觉、听觉,有时可能是触觉(昆虫的振动)这些线索来寻找猎物,其中视觉居多。The way the robins turn their head when searching for food suggests they could be using visual or auditory cues, but it wasn’t until scientists tested robins in the lab that we really knew for sure how they find worms.从知更鸟晃头晃脑地寻找食物可以推断出视觉和听觉线索的利用,但是直到科学家们在实验室中测试,我们才真正明确知更鸟如何发现昆虫。Testing the birds测试鸟儿Birds were placed in aviaries where they could be given buried mealworms in trays of dirt.在大型鸟舍中,给鸟儿们提供面粉虫藏在泥里的托盘。To test if they were using scent to locate their prey, birds were offered trays with buried live, moving worms and dead ones. Robins found the live worms more often, suggesting they were not using scent.为了测试鸟儿是否通过嗅觉寻找猎物,托盘里分别藏有活着的昆虫和死了的昆虫。知更鸟找出的多是活着的昆虫,这说明知更鸟寻找猎物时并没有利用嗅觉。In the next test, they were given hanging food trays to keep them from touching the soil with their feet and detecting the worm’s vibrations. The trays did not affect their ability to find the worms, suggesting they do not use tactile cues.下一个测试是:把托盘悬挂起来,这样知更鸟的脚碰不到泥土,也不能探测昆虫的振动。测试并没有影响知更鸟捕捉昆虫,这说明知更鸟寻找猎物时并没有利用触觉。Sound Cues声音线索When cardboard was used as a barrier to block visual cues, the birds could still find the worms. That meant they were using another sense. A last experiment used white noise to block sound cues and the birds had more difficulty finding the worms.用纸板作为障碍物破坏视觉线索,鸟儿依然能找到昆虫。说明鸟儿是用另种线索。最后的实验利用白色噪音破坏声音线索,鸟儿寻找昆虫困难起来了。The research concluded that robins could use either visual or auditory cues alone to find worms in the soil, but probably use both. So the next time you see a robin “head-cocking” you can be fairly sure it’s listening and looking for those mouthwatering treats!研究结果是知更鸟可以利用视觉或听觉中任一线索寻找泥土中的昆虫,但是也很可能是两种皆有。所以,下次你再看见知更鸟在草丛中摇头晃脑的,你可以确定它们是通过听觉寻找垂涎的美味了! /201304/234779Frontier markets前沿市场Wedge beyond the edge出险招,赚大钱Money is leaving emerging markets for riskier bets at the investment frontier资本正从新兴市场流向前沿市场,追逐更具风险投资MANY of Africas roads are scarred with potholes, so the fresh tarmac on the drive between Ndola and Kitwe, two cities in Zambias copper belt, is something of a treat. The countrys road building is financed by a 0m Eurobond (as dollar bonds issued outside America are known) issued in September 2012. The timing was perfect. The Federal Reserve had an open-ended commitment to buy Treasuries to keep yields low. Investors in America and Europe were hungry to buy dollar-denominated debt offering juicy yields. Zambia drew billion of orders for a ten-year bond paying only 5.4%. Spain could not borrow as cheaply at the time.赞比亚铜带上,恩多拉和基德伟两座城市之间,新近铺上了崭新的柏油马路。这在大部分道路都坑坑洼洼的非洲可算奢侈。2012年9月,赞比亚获得7.5亿美元的欧洲债券(在美国以外发行的美元债券)用作道路建设。当时时机可谓完美。美联储已承诺无限量购买美国国债以压低收益。欧美投资者争相购买美元计价的高收益债券。赞比亚以5.4%的低利率获得120亿美元的十年期国债订单。当时,西班牙尚无法获得如此低的利率。Zambias debut Eurobond showed how rich-world funds were looking beyond their home territory, past even emerging markets to “frontier markets” at the farthest edge of the investment universe. Even as the prospect of the end of the Feds bond-buying caused wobbles in emerging markets last year, African nations were able to tap funds. Nigeria and Ghana sold Eurobonds in July. Mozambique raised 0m in September. Gabon issued a second Eurobond in December.赞比亚的第一批欧洲债券如此抢手,显示了发达国家资金正舍弃国内市场甚至是新兴市场,涌向最边缘的投资领域“前沿市场”。去年,新兴市场由于担心美联储停止购债而发生动荡。即便如此,非洲国家仍获得大量投资。尼日利亚和加纳在七月售出欧洲债券。莫桑比克于九月筹得8.5亿美金。十二月,加蓬发行第二批欧洲债券。Frontier markets are generally small, illiquid and risky, so it is a surprise that recent tremors in emerging markets have not shaken them more. Exotix, a broker, calculates an average interest-rate sp of Eurobonds from 50 frontier markets (compared with Treasuries). The sp on its index has narrowed to 395 basis points. The gap between the Exotix measure and J.P. Morgans benchmark Emerging-Market Bond Index (EMBI) reached an all-time low of 68 basis points this week (see chart 1). Nor has investors interest been confined to bonds. The MSCI frontier equity index lagged behind its emerging-market cousin after the global financial crisis but recently has been catching up.前沿市场通常规模小,风险大,缺乏流动性。最近的新兴市场震动并未冲击到前沿市场,实在是令人吃惊。经纪公司Exotix计算出50个前沿市场的欧洲债券(与美国国债)的平均利差,已缩减至395个基点。本周,Exotix指数与根大通的新兴市场债券指数(EMBI)的差距降至68个基点,为历史最低点。投资者也不只对债券感兴趣。金融危机之后,MSCI(根斯坦利资本国际公司)的前沿市场股票指数一直落后于新兴市场,但最近差距正逐渐缩小。Frontier markets might once have been dismissed as a side bet for emerging-market funds looking to pep up returns. They are now seen as an asset class in their own right, says Andrew Brudenell, who runs 0m of frontier equity funds at HS. Pension-fund trustees and consultants now ask how much money they should allocate to the frontier. The rising interest is in part because GDP growth in China, Brazil and India has diminished. The things that made emerging markets exciting in the 1990s are now found in frontier markets, says Charlie Robertson of Renaissance Capital, an investment bank.过去,新兴市场资金可能只在想获得额外收益时,会到前沿市场多赌一把。然而按照安德鲁?布鲁德奈尔的说法,前沿市场如今已是一个名正言顺的资本类别了。安德鲁?布鲁德奈尔现在在汇丰管理着7亿美元的前沿市场股票基金。养老金托管人和咨询师已经开始考虑,该放多少钱在前沿市场。对前沿市场的重视,一部分是由于中国、巴西和印度的GDP增速开始放缓。复兴资本的查理?罗伯逊称,上世纪九十年代促成新兴市场大发展的因素,现在都转移到了前沿市场。There is much debate about where the frontier starts and ends. If the definition is a market that is neither developed nor emerging, then 23 of the 25 fastest-growing economies over the past decade are in the frontier category. But many of these frontier economies do not have stockmarkets and only Qatar is in the MSCI frontier-market index, an industry benchmark. To qualify, a stockmarket must have at least two stocks that meet specific thresholds for size and liquidity. It must also be “accessible”: this is harder to quantify but what matters is openness to foreign ownership, the ease with which capital can flow across borders and the stockmarkets functioning. Only 24 markets across eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia make the cut. Their combined market capitalisation is 6 billion or so. By comparison the 21 stock markets in MSCIs emerging-market index are worth trillion.对于前沿市场的定义,至今仍充满争议。如果将其定义为既不是发达市场也不是新兴市场,那过去十年里25个发展最快速经济体中有23个会被归为前沿市场。但这些前沿经济体当中有一大批没有股票市场,并且只有卡塔尔被纳入MSCI前沿市场指数这一基准指数当中。一个合格的股票市场,必须至少拥有两规模和流动性达到标准的股票,并且足够开放。后者较难以量化,但最重要的是是否向外资开放,资本跨境流通是否便利,股市是否有效运作。横跨东欧、中东、非洲及亚洲,只有24个市场达到该标准, 总市值达1460亿美元。与之相对的是MSCI新兴市场指数中的21个股票市场,总市值达4万亿美元。A familiar grumble about these sorts of indices, which are weighted by the market value of stocks, is that they have a skew that is unfavourable to bargain-hunters. Investors in index trackers spend more on stocks that have gone up in price. It is an acute problem for frontier markets. More than half of the MSCI index is accounted for by stocks from three oil-rich Gulf states: Qatar, the ed Arab Emirates and Kuwait (though the first two will soon graduate to emerging-market status).这类市值加权指数常被认为有失偏颇,对欲低价买入股票的投机商不利。那些追踪股票指数的投资人会在已增值的股票上花更多的钱。这一问题在前沿市场尤为突出。MSCI指数中有一半以上的股票来自海湾地区的三个石油大国:卡塔尔,阿联酋和科威特(不过前两个很快将升至新兴市场级别)。The purist sort of frontiersman sees the job as investing in poorer countries with the greatest potential. Purists give more room in their portfolios to stocks from poor, populous and fast-growing markets, such as Nigeria or Pakistan. As countries like these become richer, their middle classes will grow and spending on infrastructure will increase. The so-called B stocks (banks, brewers and cement companies) are one way to play these investment themes. Zenith Bank, Nigerian Breweries and Dangote Cement are popular stocks. Nestlé has a subsidiary that is listed in Lagos. In Pakistan there is Bank Alfalah and DG Khan, a cement company.纯粹的前沿市场投资者认为,前沿市场相对较贫穷,但潜力最大。这些投资者的资产组合当中,贫穷、人口众多、快速发展市场的股票占了更大的比例,像尼日利亚和巴基斯坦。在财富增长的同时,这些国家的中产阶级日益壮大,基础设施投资也将增加。所谓的B股票(,啤酒厂和水泥厂)就是前沿市场常见的投资标的之一。詹尼斯、尼日利亚啤酒厂和丹格特水泥都是抢手的股票。雀巢的一家分公司在拉各斯(尼日利亚首都)上市。巴基斯坦较热门的股票有阿法拉和德拉加齐汗水泥厂。Specialist funds wanting to sp their bets may look at markets and stocks that are not in the main index. Saudi Arabia is a liquid market but tricky for foreigners to invest in. Its stockmarket sports SADAFCO, a dairy producer. Cambodia is another off-index bet. It has Nagacorp, a casino. Often the only way to buy exposure is through bonds. Angola is Africas third-biggest economy, after South Africa and Nigeria. It has no stockmarket but it does have a Eurobond. Mozambiques Eurobond was ostensibly for a state-backed fishing venture. Investors bought it anyway, with one eye on the countrys fast-growing economy and the other on its offshore gas reserves.希望分摊风险的专业基金有时会考虑主要指数之外的市场和股票。沙特阿拉伯具有充分流动性,但对外国投资者来说,却是一个难以捉摸的市场。沙特股市中最亮眼的是沙特乳制品及食品公司。柬埔寨也是主要指数之外的一个投资热点,拥有公司金界控股。通常进行风险投资唯一的途径就是购买债券。安哥拉是继南非和尼日利亚之后非洲第三大经济体,没有股市,但有欧洲债券。赞比亚的欧洲债券名义上是为一家政府持的渔业公司筹资,但投资者还是争相购买,一方面是考虑到赞比亚快速发展的经济,另一方面是看中了赞比亚丰富的近海天然气储备。Greater demand should spur the supply of stocks, through sales of private stakes or privatisations. Deeper equity markets would be welcome. Access to debt markets is more of a mixed blessing for some. Ghana issued its first Eurobond in 2007. Within a few years its budget deficit blew out to 12% of GDP after a large public-sector pay rise. Mozambique shows worrying signs of similar trouble.需求增加,能刺激股票的供应,包括出售私人股份或私有化。更具深度的股票市场将受到欢迎。对一些国家来说,接触到债券市场有好亦有坏。加纳于2007年第一次发行欧洲债券。在大幅增加公有部门薪酬后,几年时间内预算赤字飙升至GDP的20%。莫桑比克也开始出现类似问题的苗头,令人担忧。Zambia meant to use its proceeds wisely. The money was to go on targeted projects. New roads in the copperbelt make sense since so much cargo is sent by truck. But easy money leads to lax discipline. The states wage bill has become bloated. The budget deficit may be as high as 8% of GDP this year. To help fill the gap, Zambia is said to be plotting another Eurobond.赞比亚原本想用好这笔钱,把钱花在重点项目上。在铜带上筑路是颇明智的选择,因为大量的货物都是通过卡车运送的。但钱来得容易,花得也就随意了。赞比亚政府部门薪酬已然过高。今年的预算赤字可能达到GDP的8%。据说为了弥补空缺,赞比亚已经在筹划发放新一轮欧洲债券。 /201404/286356Science and technology科学技术Sociable spiders社会性蜘蛛Come into my parlour欢迎来做客A strange example of co-operative behaviour in arachnids一种懂得合作的不寻常的蜘蛛SPIDERS are known for many things.蜘蛛为人熟知的特点很多,Sociability is not one of them.但社会性不在其列。Most spiders are more likely to try to eat their neighbours than befriend them.多数蜘蛛更有可能想吃掉自己的邻居,而非跟它们做朋友。Given that there are at least 43,678 species of the critters, though, it is not too surprising that a few have overcome their natural grumpiness and teamed up to form societies.不过考虑到这种生物至少有43678种,有那么几种能克天生乖戾的性情结群而居也就不足为奇了。So far, about two dozen such social spiders have been identified.目前已知的社会性蜘蛛约有24种。And among them, something really strange has just been found.其中还发现了一些奇特之处。For one type of spider society turns out to involve two different but closely related species.在一种包含蜘蛛的群落中,有两种亲缘关系很近的蜘蛛。It is as though anthropologists had discovered villages populated both by human beings and chimpanzees.这就像是人类学家发现村落中既住着人类也住着黑猩猩。This was discovered by a team led by Lena Grinsted of Aarhus University in Denmark.这一现象由丹麦奥尔胡斯大学莉娜·格林斯蒂德带领的团队发现。They were studying a social species of spider called Chikunia nigra, living near Beratan Lake in Bali.当时他们在研究一种生活在巴厘岛贝拉坦湖畔、名为Chikunia nigra的社会性蜘蛛。Later, as they looked in more detail at their specimens, they realised its genes and genitalia revealed that it was actually two species, according to their findings just published in Naturwissenschaften.后来随着对标本研究的日益深入,他们发现基因和生殖器都表明标本分属两个物种。其研究结果新近见刊于《自然科学》。Exactly what the spiders get out of being social is not clear.社会性对蜘蛛有何益处目前尚不清楚。They do not hunt together.它们并不共同捕食。One explanation may be that the colony is acting like a giant creche.一种可能的解释是,这一群体像是大型托儿所。Ms Grinsted discovered this possibility by experiment.格林斯蒂德女士通过实验得出了这种可能性。First, she identified 19 females who were looking after recently hatched young, and another 20 who had eggs.首先,她找到19只照料新孵化幼虫的雌蜘蛛以及20只刚产过卵的雌蜘蛛。In each case she introduced an intruder, in the form of a spider from the same colony.然后,她将来自同一群体的一只蜘蛛作为入侵者分别引入上述两组个体。Both mothers and mothers-to-be were surprisingly tolerant of what would, in most spider species, be a serious threat.这些蜘蛛妈妈及准妈妈出人意料地表现出容忍性,而不像多数种类的蜘蛛那样将之视为严重威胁。Only 40% of the time did they attempt to chase the intruder away, or bite it.它们只在40%的时间中试图赶走或咬噬入侵者。Ms Grinsted then took another 40 spiders and swapped some of their broods.随后格林斯蒂德女士又取了40只蜘蛛并互换其部分幼虫。The upshot, she found, was that a female was as likely to look after and guard anothers brood as she was her own.她发现雌蜘蛛会将之视为己出,照料、保护幼虫。Which is intriguing, but not all that extraordinary in social groups which are composed of closely related individuals.这一现象虽有趣,但在个体亲缘关系相近的群体中也不算罕见。Except that Ms Grinsted now knows that this cannot always be the case for her spiders, since two different species are involved.只是格林斯蒂德女士现在已知道她的蜘蛛并非如此,因为其中包含两个物种。The species in question are pretty similar, which would seem to rule out another common cause of collaboration: that different creatures bring different adaptations to the party, thus dividing the labour of staying alive into specialisms.而且两种蜘蛛非常相似,这就排除了合作的另一常见原因,即不同生物在适应该群落过程中发生不同变化,从而为生存进行了专门化分工。Because Ms Grinsted did not know at the time of her experiment that two species were involved, she cannot be sure how many of the fosterings she induced were cross-specific.因为做实验时格林斯蒂德女士并不知道涉及两个物种,因此她现在无法确定有多少幼虫交换是在种间进行的。The two species seem more or less equally abundant, so the chances are it was about half of them.这两个物种似乎一样多,因此可能有一半是种间交换。If colony members are acting as foster mothers in the wild, something most odd is going on.如果在自然环境中该群体的成员也乐于做养母,这就是最奇怪之处:Altruism is not a concept often associated with spiders. Xenophilic altruism is truly bizarre.利他主义这个概念通常与蜘蛛没什么关系;种间利他主义发生在蜘蛛身上,就更让人难以置信了。 /201310/259910

  Finance and economics财经商业Chinas currency中国货币One way no more只有一条路可走Why Chinas central bank is weakening its currency为什么中国的中央正在弱化它的货币CHINAS currency has long been a source of controversy, especially among American politicians outraged by its cheapness.中国的货币长久以来就是争议之源,尤其是因其廉价而饱受美国政客的指责。But it is rarely a source of uncertainty.但是它却不是不稳定的源泉。Critics have argued fiercely about what it should be worth.批评家就其实际价值争论了很久,But as to what it would be worth, Chinas authorities have left little room for disagreement.但是事关未来中国货币价值,中国政府不容置喙。在中国历史上的大多数时间,其货币紧紧与美元挂钩。For much of its history it has been pegged tightly to the dollar. More recently it has floated within a narrow band.近来,中国汇率在一个很小的范围波动。Most people have assumed it would float upwards.大多数人,认为其将会向上浮动。In recent days, however, Chinas authorities have tested that assumption.而近日,中国官方欣慰实了这一猜想,At a two-day meeting ending on February 18th, the central bank decided to weaken the yuan, according to the Wall Street Journal.据《华尔街日报》消息,为期两天并于2月18号结束的会议,在其召开之后,It has lowered its benchmark by a smidgen at a time for several days.中央决定贬抑人民币。它略微降低了其基准几天的时间。The currency has also fallen from the strong side of its band to the weak side.货币也已经从强势的一端,降到弱势的一端了。In the space of a few days, it lost about 1% of its value.几天的时间,就已经贬值了1%。On February 26th Chinas foreign-exchange regulator said that Chinas ongoing exchange-rate reforms meant that two-way fluctuations… will become the norm.2月26日,中国外汇称中国正在进行汇率改革,这意味着双向波动会成为规范For the past year, a different norm has applied:在过去的几年,一个不同的标准已被采用:the fluctuations have been mostly one way.波动可能只因为一种方式。China enjoys a sizeable current-account surplus and it still attracts more foreign-direct investment than it provides.中国拥有相当数量的经常项目盈余,并且它仍然吸引这比其投资量更多的国外直接投资。Other kinds of capital flows are more volatile. But in the last quarter of 2013, a net billion of hot money flowed inwards.其他形式的资本流动愈发不稳定。当时2013年第四季度,净值220亿美元的热钱流入国内。Much of this qualifies as a carry trade: speculators have borrowed cheaply in dollars, then lent in yuan, eluding Chinas capital controls in the hope of benefiting both from higher Chinese interest rates and the yuans appreciation.许多被认为是一种套息交易:投机者廉价借入美元,然后借给人民币,避过了中国的资本管制,以期从更高的中国利率和人民币升值中获利。All of this has put upward pressure on the currency, fulfilling the carry-traders designs and inspiring others to emulate them.套息交易者计划的实行以及激励别人效仿其行为,所有的这些都增加了货币升值的压力,Despite the central banks heavy purchases of foreign exchange, the yuan rose by 2.8% against the dollar in the year to January, even as the currencies of other emerging markets plummeted.尽管央行大量购进美元,截至今年1月,即使是在其他新兴市场猛跌的情况下,人民币相对于美元升值了2.8%。The resulting loss of competitiveness is best illustrated by an index calculated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, which compares Chinas currency with those of other emerging economies that compete with it in third markets.由香港金融的通过比较中国与其他新兴经济体的货币在第三市场的竞争计算出来的指数,最好地说明了人民币升值导致竞争力下降的情况。This index shows the yuan rising by over 13% in the year to January and by almost 2.6% in January alone.这个指数显示了人民币截至到今年一月份上涨了13%,光一月份就上涨了几乎2.6%。Chinas authorities did not say they had stepped in to sap the yuan.中国政府未曾说过其介入贬抑人民币。But their intervention left fingerprints all over the money markets.但是它们干涉的痕迹遍布整个货币市场。In buying dollars to weaken the currency, the monetary authorities put additional yuan into circulation.通过购买美元来使本币贬值,金融当局投放额外的人民币用于流通。The central bank withdrew a fraction of this extra money by selling securities to the banks.中央通过向发售有价券来收回一小部分额外的钱。But the banks were still left with extra yuan, which they tried to lend to each other.但是手头仍然有很多多出来的钱,他们试图将之借给对方,This pushed down interbank interest rates, despite the central banks withdrawals.这降低了内部利率。As Yao Wei of Societe Generale points out, No factors other than foreign-exchange intervention seems able to explain that.法国兴业的Yao Wei 指出似乎除了外汇干预,没有更好的原因能解释这一现象了。Will the yuans slide persist?人民币会持续贬值吗?In its statement, the foreign-exchange regulator pointed out that export earnings and foreign-direct investment remain strong.外汇在其陈述中指出:对外贸易顺差以及国外直接投资势头依旧强劲。These fundamentals both suggest the yuan should rise again.这两个基础因素显示了人民币应该再次升值。But by wrongfooting the speculators, the authorities hope that the expectation of appreciation will not remain a cause of that appreciation.但是通过打乱投机者的步伐,当局期望对升值的预期不会继续成为导致升值的因素。At the meeting in which it decided to cheapen its currency, the central bank also decided to enlarge the yuans trading band later this year, according to a statement cited by theJournal.根据《华尔街日报》上的描述,在做出贬抑人民币决定的会议上,中央也决定扩大人民币交易的范围。A more flexible yuan would give the central bank a freer hand in setting monetary policy, even as it gradually permits larger cross-border flows of capital.一个更加有弹性的人民币将会给中央在制定货币政策时带来更大的便利,甚至它会逐渐允许更大规模的跨境资本流动。Despite its cruelty to carry traders, the central bank seems to be keen to open the door to foreign capital a little wider, as long as foreigners do not try to barge their way in. That will make Chinas currency a source of less controversy but a good deal more uncertainty.尽管其对于套息交易者十分严厉,但是只要外国人不试图用粗鲁的方式闯入中国市场,中央似乎乐意对国外资本适度放宽限制。这将减少中国通货的争议性,但是却增加了不稳定性。 /201403/278681

  Women and work女性和工作Girl talk女人之间的事Working women today have it better than ever before. But few agree on how to help them rise further—or whether they still need help at all今天,职场女性的地位比过去已经有了显著进步。但关于怎样帮助她们进一步攀登职业生涯的更高峰,或者她们到底还需不需要帮助,仍然存在着很大的意见分歧。Work With Me: The 8 Blind Spots Between Men and Women in Business.和我一起工作:男性和女性在职场中的八大盲点By Barbara Annis and John Gray. Palgrave Macmillan; 272 pages; .作者:芭芭拉·安妮丝,约翰·格雷。麦克米伦出版社;272页;27美元。To be published in Britain by Piatkus next month; 13.99.下月将由Piatkus出版社在英国出版;13.99英镑。Buy from Amazon.comAmazon.com有售A Rising Tide: Financing Strategies for Women-Owned Firms.新潮:女性主导公司的金融策略By Susan Coleman and Alicia Robb.作者:苏珊·科尔曼,艾丽西亚·罗布。Stanford University Press; 288 pages; and 77.50.斯坦福大学出版社;288页;85美元/77.5英镑。Buy fromAmazon.com, Amazon.co.ukAmazon.com, Amazon.co.uk有售The XX factor: How Working Women are Creating a New Society.XX因子:职场女性如何创造新社会By Alison Wolf. Profile; 464 pages; 15.99. Buy fromAmazon.co.uk作者:艾莉森·伍尔芙。Profile出版社;464页;15.99英镑。Amazon.co.uk有售PEOPLE have been holding heated discussions recently about women’s experience in the workplace.最近,关于女性职场角色的讨论尤为火热。The catalyst? A single Silicon Valley executive.点燃这场讨论的是一位硅谷的女主管。Last month Sheryl Sandberg, chief operating officer at Facebook, published “Lean In”, a controversial manifesto on why women have not ascended to the most senior positions at companies.上月,Facebook的首席营运官雪莉·桑德伯格发表了颇受争议的新书《跻身:女性、工作与领导意愿》,讲述女性难以在公司担任高层职位的原因。She concludes that it is partly women’s own fault: they do not “lean in” and ask for promotions, pipe up at meetings and insist on taking a seat at the table.在书中,桑德伯格女士总结说,这一部分是女性自身的问题:她们不愿“跻身”,不主动要求升职,不积极在公司会议上发言,甚至在开会时都不愿上桌。Three new books will not have the same impact as “Lean In”, but they offer some interesting new perspectives on how women are coping at work, and what is holding them back.本文要介绍的三本新书虽然无法在影响上与《跻身》相媲美,但也为我们了解女性如何适应职场、是什么阻碍了她们晋升提供了一些有趣的新视角。Some of it is down to simple miscommunication.有时这仅仅是因为简单的沟通障碍。Barbara Annis and John Gray argue in “Work With Me” that men and women are biologically wired to think and react differently to situations, and have “gender blind spots” when it comes to understanding their co-workers’ behaviour.芭芭拉·安妮丝和约翰·格雷在《和我一起工作》一书中说,男人和女人因为生理结构的差异而注定对同一情况有不同的看法和反应,并且在理解异性同事的行为时,会存在“性别盲点”。Ms Annis, who leads workshops on gender for big companies and governments, and Mr Gray, author of “Men are from Mars, Women are from Venus”, a bestselling book in 1992 about relationship problems, have collaborated to produce an easy-to- guide to workplace communications.安妮丝女士平时经常为大公司和政府机构主持关于性别问题的研习班,格雷先生则是《男人来自火星,女人来自金星》一书的作者,这本书出版于1992年,是一本讲述恋爱关系中存在的问题的畅销书。这样的两个人合作出一本关于职场沟通的简明指南,可谓是珠联璧合。Women ask more questions, gather more people’s opinions and seek collaboration with co-workers more frequently than men.和男性相比,女性通常更喜欢提问题,更多地寻求他人的意见,并且也更愿意与同事合作。Men view these preferences as signs of weakness, and women, in turn, grow annoyed by how competitively men work, and how quickly and unilaterally they arrive at conclusions.这些特点在男性看来是软弱的标志,而女性同样也很讨厌男人工作时的好胜心,以及他们不征求别人意见、迅速作出自己单方面结论的作风。If both female and male employees became more “gender intelligent” about how their work and behavioural preferences are hard-wired, it would contribute to a more harmonious workforce.如果男女职员都能够更加明智地认识到性别对他们的工作和行为习惯的固定影响,或许工作团队中的关系会更加和谐。Women have been choosing to leave companies at twice the rate of men, and more than half the women whom the authors met in workshops were considering leaving their firms.女职员主动辞职的比率是男职员的两倍,本书作者在研习班里接触的女职员中也有一半以上都在考虑离开现在的公司。Women often tell their bosses that they are quitting for personal reasons, but the majority actually leave because they feel excluded from teams and not valued for their contributions.她们通常会对老板说,自己辞职是出于私人原因,但实际上,大部分人真正的理由是她们在团队中没有参与感,而且感到自己的贡献没有得到重视。Yet the reality is that women often have trouble communicating with other women at work as well, though the authors do not explain in quite as much detail why this is so.其实还有另外一个现实的原因,女职员经常在工作中与其他女性也存在沟通问题,尽管这一点在本书中并没有详细阐述。Communication and gender equality are not just problems at large firms.沟通和性别平等不是只有大公司才存在的问题。In “A Rising Tide” Susan Coleman and Alicia Robb look beyond women’s experience at big companies.在《新潮》一书中,作者苏珊·科尔曼和艾丽西亚·罗布关注的就是女性在大公司之外的经历。They focus instead on women entrepreneurs, who have the potential to become leaders in their field, earn a high income and hire more women.她们的兴趣点在女企业家身上,这些女性拥有成为本行业领袖的潜力,收入高,并且倾向于雇佣更多的女性为自己工作。In a positive shift, women have been starting more firms in the past decade.过去的十年见了一个积极的转变—女性正在创办越来越多的公司。However, these tend to be in the service and retail industries.然而,这些公司大多从事的是务业和零售业一类的传统产业。They also remain smaller than men’s firms.而且通常在规模上也比不上男性主导的公司。Ms Coleman and Ms Robb point out that part of this may be by design; women sometimes want to keep their businesses small in order to balance their family responsibilities.科尔曼女士和罗布女士指出,这种情况一部分可能是有意为之;女老板们有时就是想要保持公司较小的规模,以便兼顾自己的家庭责任。However, women also often lack the financing that male entrepreneurs enjoy.除此之外,女老板们也经常缺少男老板们所拥有的那样充足的资金。They have fewer savings, so usually launch their businesses with less capital than men, and are less likely to apply for a loan for fear of being denied.她们的存款较少,所以经常在创办公司时,启动资金就比不上男企业家。And they have not had as much access to the masculine world of Silicon Valley: in 2000 they obtained only 5% of funding from venture capitalists, a notoriously male-dominated industry.而且,因为害怕被拒绝,她们也不太愿意去申请贷款。因此,在硅谷这个男权世界中,女性的跻身空间很小。2000年,她们仅从风险投资家手中获得了5%的资金。During their first year of operation men raised 27 times more equity from outsiders for their start-ups than women.众所周知,风险投资也是一个男性主导的行业。新公司运营第一年里,男老板们从公司外部募得的投资是女老板们的27倍。How has the success of high-achievers differentiated them from other women?那么,成功的女性精英们与其他女性有什么不同呢?In “The XX Factor”, Alison Wolf, the director of public policy and management at Kings College London, argues that there are now around 70m highly educated, high-earning women around the world.伦敦大学国王学院公共政策与管理系负责人艾莉森·伍尔芙在《XX因子》一书中说,目前全世界大约有七千万接受过高等教育、拿高收入的女性。They have more in common with elite men than with other women.与其他女性相比,她们与男性精英拥有更多相同之处。These grandes dames tend to marry more often and have fewer children than less-educated women.这些“女强人”通常会比教育程度不高的女性结更多次婚,生更少的孩子。They spend more time working, and, unexpectedly, more time parenting.她们花在工作上的时间更多,但令人意外的是,她们花在养育儿女上的时间也更多。Ms Sandberg also makes this point.桑德伯格女士也表达过同样的观点。As the demands on women in the workplace have increased, so too have the standards for being a good, involved mother—which adds to the challenges for women at the top.随着职场对女性的要求越来越高,要做一个合格的、全身心投入的母亲也越来越难。这也增加了女高管们面临的挑战。Ms Wolf and Ms Sandberg ultimately differ, however, on whether the glass is half full or half empty for women.但是,在对待女性职场前景的态度上,伍尔芙女士和桑德伯格女士有着很大的差别。Ms Sandberg’s book is a call to female arms to change their behaviour so they can rise further.桑德伯格女士的书意在呼吁女性改变她们的一些做法,以便攀登事业的更高峰。Ms Wolf concludes with an economist’s detachment. She says that given how much things have improved for women in the past century, it is “a little surprising to find so many elite women still arguing passionately for directed, top-down social change—change designed to improve things for female elites”.而伍尔芙女士的结论则显示出一位经济学家所拥有的淡然和超脱。她说,在过去一个世纪里,女性地位已经有了很大提升,考虑到这一点,她“有些不理解为什么很多女性精英仍然在乐此不疲地要求有序的、自上而下的社会变革,要求进一步改善女性精英的处境”。Most people agree that more needs to change in the workplace. Men still occupy most top jobs, do not feel comfortable mentoring younger women and judge young men differently from young women.大多数人都同意,职场确实还有很多需要改变的地方。男性仍然霸占了大多数的高层职位,不愿意指导年轻的女职员,并且在评价年轻的男女职员时采取双重标准。However, after decades of women failing to gain equal representation in executive suites, it is notable how many books now focus on women altering their behaviour, rather than men changing their way of doing things.但是,在女性奋斗了几十年,仍然未能在主管办公室打下半壁江山之后,我们应该注意到,现在的很多书只关注女性如何调整自己的行为,而不是男性怎样改变他们的行事风格。Women cannot change their fate on their own. What happened to the responsibility for men to “lean in” to listen and advance women in the workforce, as well?女性仅靠自己改变不了命运。难道男性不是也有责任要主动倾听女性的声音,帮助女性在职场进步吗? /201404/285006

  

  Finance and Economics;Apples share price; iRational?财经;苹果的股价; 苹果股价合理吗?Apple is an iconic brand. Now it is a totemic investment, too.苹果本是一种电子产品的品牌,现在却成了投资的风向标。The new iPad, which was released on March 16th, is the most popular version of the tablet yet. Apple sold 3m of them in just four days. But some buyers took to discussion forums to report that it has a tendency to heat up. A similar debate exists about Apples stock.3月16日发布的新一代苹果是迄今为止最受欢迎的平板电脑。在仅仅4天内,苹果就销售了300万台。一些消费者在论坛区说,苹果的销售变得越来越火。人们同样认为苹果的股价会蒸蒸日上。The companys share price has risen by 83% in the past year, and by almost 50% so far in 2012. Apple is now easily the largest company in the world by market capitalisation, at some 565 billion dollar. It looms over Exxon Mobil, which is worth a mere 408 billion dollar. Since the start of this year it has added 187 billion dollar to its valuation, roughly equivalent to the entire market caps of companies like Procter Gamble, Johnson Johnson and Wells Fargo. Apple is larger than the American retail sector combined.在2011年,苹果的股价上涨了83%;今年,到目前为止上涨了约50%。苹果市值约为5650亿,轻松成为世界上最大的公司。其市值超过了埃克森美孚公司的市值:仅有4080亿。今年以来,苹果市值增加了1870亿,大致和宝洁、强生、富国的总市值相等。苹果市值比全美零售业市值还要高。It accounts for 4.5% of the SP 500 and 1.1% of the global equity market (see chart 1). Some bank analysts have started to report Americas corporate earnings without Apple, because including the firm so skews results. Fourth-quarter earnings are expected to have risen by 6.7% from the prior year for companies in the SP 500, but by a much more modest 3.6% if Apple is excluded, according to UBS.如图1所示,苹果市值占史坦普500股价指数的4.5%,占整个股本市场的1.1%。一些分析家们在报道美国公司收益时已经剔除苹果公司了,因为如果包含该公司的话会扭曲报告结果。根据史坦普500股价指数,公司收益在第四季度预计同比上涨6.7%。然而瑞士指出,如果把苹果公司剔除的话,这一涨幅会仅有3.6%多点。Around a third of all hedge funds own it, including big names like SAC Capital and Greenlight. Some have made very big bets. Citadels 5.1 billion dollar stake in Apple (as of December 31st) accounted for around 12% of its equity portfolio. Many hedge funds that have done well in the past year owe much to this single position.大约三分之一的对冲基金持有苹果的股票,其中包括著名的SAC股权基金与绿光基金。一些基金甚至孤注一掷。截至去年月31日,城堡投资集团持有苹果51亿美元的股票,大约股票投资组合12%。许多去年收益好的对冲基金在很大程度上受益于大量持有苹果股份。The stocks gains this year have not only boosted the spirits of shareholders but also brightened the whole equity market. Apple is responsible for more than 10% of the SP 500s rise this year (see chart 2), and for 39% of the NASDAQ 100s gains. No other stock has ever grown to have such a significant impact on an index so quickly, says Howard Silverblatt of Standard Poors, a ratings agency.今年股市的上涨不仅激发了股民的信心,也未整个股票市场带来了生机。史坦普500股价指数在本年度的涨幅中,苹果贡献度不少于10%(如图2);在纳斯达克100指数的涨幅中,苹果贡献度为39%。标准普尔(信用评级机构)的Howard Silverblatt说,还没有其它股票像苹果能对指数产生如此迅速而重大的影响。The share price keeps soaring. On March 20th, a day after Apple announced it would use some of its cash hoard (estimated at 97.6 billion dollar at the end of 2011) on a quarterly dividend and a 10 billion dollar share buy-back, its shares closed at a record high of 605.96 dollar. This is the first time in 17 years that Apple will pay a dividend. Dividend funds, which had not considered investing in Apple before, could pile in, potentially pushing the price higher still.苹果的股价涨势依然逼人。在3月19日,苹果宣布在2011年低前预计将拿出976亿用于季度分红,同时将回购100亿美元的股本。次日,其股价创历史新高(605.96美元)。这是17年来苹果的首次分红。之前从未考虑过投资苹果公司的股利基金,或将蜂拥而至并继续推高苹果股价。Most analysts remain committed fans of the shares. Some claim that a 1 trillion dollar valuation could soon be possible. The bullish case runs as follows. Apple has low penetration in the personal-computer and smartphone markets, and can hook millions more customers in emerging markets like China and Brazil. Although questions remain over how much of Apples innovation was due to its magician-in-chief, Steve Jobs, who died last October, the launch of the new iPad has calmed nerves somewhat. Apple is poised to enter new arenas like television and mobile payments.大多数分析家们仍然看好苹果股票。一些分析家宣称,苹果市值有可能突破1万亿。其理由如下。尽管苹果在个人电脑和智能手机市场中的市场渗透率较低,但其在如中国和巴西这样的新兴市场中能吸引数百万的顾客群体。尽管有人认为苹果总裁乔布斯的去世意味着苹果的辉煌将一去不复返,然而新一代iPad的销售业绩明了这种怀疑是毫无意义的。而且,苹果打算进军如电视和掌上付这样的新领域。The firm still has a ton of cash to invest in new products and ward off emerging threats. Horace Dediu of Asymco, a data-analysis firm, has estimated that even after the dividend payout and any buy-back activity this year, Apple could still end 2012 with over 35 billion dollar more in the bank than it had at the end of the previous year. With an historic price-earnings (p/e) ratio of 22, shares are not as dear as you might expect, and look even more attractive when the p/e is calculated based on forward earnings. Apples revenues are forecast to grow by at least 51% in fiscal-year 2012 and by 23% in 2013, according to Morgan Stanley.苹果公司拥有大量的资金可投资于新产品和预防潜在的风险。数据分析公司Horace Dediu of Asymco估计到:苹果今年即使施行了分红和回购行为,其2012的存款将同比增长至少350亿美元。考虑到苹果的市盈率仅仅为22,那么其股价就并非那么高了。如果通过未来收益来计算市盈率的话,苹果的股价将会更有吸引力。根据根斯坦利,苹果公司的在2012和2013会计年度的预计收益至少分别上涨51%和23%。Others reckon that the outlook for its business is not the only thing that has been driving the steep ascent of Apples shares. The stock has seen such heavy gains in recent weeks that many investors cant afford not to have Apple in their portfolio. Fund managers that are judged against a benchmark where Apple is heavily weighted, like the NASDAQ 100 or the SP 500 technology index, have to scramble to keep a heavy exposure to Apple. “The speed of the move and the size of the company scare people who havent got it,” says Andy Ash of Monument Securities. “The danger is that you end up with everyone buying it because they have to rather than because they want to.”其他人认为,苹果公司的前景并非是推动其股价快速上涨得唯一因素。苹果的股价在近几周来不断上涨,许多投资者不得不把苹果纳入其投资组合。基金经理的业绩基准如纳斯达克100指数、斯史坦普500股价指数,受苹果影响是很大的,因此他们争先恐后的重仓持有苹果股票。纪念碑券公司的Andy Ash说:“苹果公司的发展规模和速度使人们争相抢购苹果的股票。然而危险的是虽然人人最终持有苹果股票,但是并非都出自于真心,而是他们不得不买。”Some wonder whether the stock is headed into bubble territory. Apples p/e is much lower than that of stocks in the dot-com bubble; America Onlines was a ridiculous 154 in 1999. But contrarian thinking is thin on the ground. There is very little short interest in Apple. “Call” options, which give the right to buy Apple stock, are much more expensive than “puts”, which give the right to sell the stock, says Mark Sebastian of Option Pit, a consultancy. Of the 54 analysts who track Apple stock, only one has a sell rating, according to Bloomberg. Robert Shiller, a Yale economist and author of “Irrational Exuberance”, reckons that the “emotional attachment” to the Apple story and “wild” enthusiasm about its stock are reminiscent of a bubble. “You could play the bubble, because it might not be over yet, but I wouldnt put money in Apple stock,” he says.一些人怀疑疑虑,苹果的股价是否存在泡沫了。然而相较于互联网泡沫时代股票的市盈率,苹果的市盈率非常的低了;美国互联网公司在1999年市盈率竟然高达154.但是逆向投资者少有人在。几乎没有投资者抛售苹果股票。Option Pit(咨询公司)的Mark Sebastian说,苹果股票的看涨期权远贵于看跌期权。根据Bloomberg,追踪苹果的54位分析家中只有一位建议卖出。耶鲁大学经济学家兼非理性繁荣的作者Robert Shiller说到,投资者们对苹果传奇的情感依附和狂热让人想起泡沫时代。他说:“你可以利用苹果股价泡沫来赚钱,因为其还不会破灭,但是我是不会购买苹果股票的。”Even if bubble talk is over the top, a higher share price is justified only if Apple continues to meet earnings expectations. That usually gets harder. The stocks of market-leading companies historically underperform once they have reached the top slot, since they are less nimble and more vulnerable to attacks by regulators and the press. It is harder to continue impressive earnings growth on a large base. Even a modest earnings miss could have a big effect on the share price, since more of Apples shareholders today are fickle traders.即使泡沫论夸大其词,但是苹果只有不断达到预期收益才能保其持续上涨的股价是合理的。然而,这变得越来越难。从过去来看,一旦市场领先的企业一旦位居榜首,其股价就会表现不佳。其原因是他们对监管者和媒体的攻击反应迟钝,更加容易受到影响。总体上来看,持续保持良好的收益增长相当难。由于苹果的许多股东都相当浮躁,即使在合理范围内的收益损失都会对其股价产生较大的影响。If there was a fall, it would ripple. Technology investors, which have a higher concentration of Apple in their portfolios, are the most vulnerable. Apple makes up more than 18% of PowerShares QQQ, an exchange-traded fund with heavy exposure to technology stocks, for example. More unsettling are funds that have strayed into buying Apple against their mandate, including some mutual funds that are supposed to focus on smaller companies. “If Apple has a wobble, you could see it dictate broader market movements,” says Alec Levine of Newedge, a broker.如果苹果股价下跌,其将会产生连锁反应。重仓持有苹果股票的科技型投资者最容易受到影响。例如,交易所基金PowerShares QQQ重仓持有科技股,其中苹果比重超过了18%。那些违背委托意愿而购买苹果股票的基金对股价下降更会心神不宁,这其中包括一些本应投资于小型企业的共同基金。新际集团的经纪人Alec Levine说:“如果苹果的股价产生波动的话,它将引起整个市场范围的波动。”Hedge funds could be among the biggest losers. They look clever now for buying a stock that has seen such a rise, but they will look dumb if they lose money when it falls. Some may question whether they should earn such high fees simply for buying into the worlds most valuable listed firm. Wheres the genius there?对冲基金可能属于损失最惨的投资家之一。它们的购买行为在股价上涨期看似明智,但股价一旦下跌损失惨重,它们就哑口无言了。一些人质疑,是不是仅仅因为他们购买了全球市值最大的公司的股票就可收取高额费用。真正的投资大师在哪里呢? /201307/246181

  

  Finance and Economics;The euro zones rescue fund; Funny money, fuzzy maths;财经;欧元区救助基金;不明的财源,模糊的数字;The IMFs coffers are fuller, but the euro zones “firewall” is still flimsy;IMF金库充盈,欧元防火墙依旧薄弱;Christine Lagarde, the IMFs managing director, boasted of a “Washington moment”. At its spring meetings in theAmerican capital this month, the fund saw its lending power almost double,thanks to the promise of 430 billion dollar in loans from more than a score of itsmembers. The official goal is to boost a “global firewall” against crisis. Theunofficial hope is that a fatter IMF will help ease fears about the euro, bybolstering the 700 billion euro(925 billion dollar) that euro-zone economies havepledged in their own rescue funds.IMF总裁克丽丝汀·拉嘉德女士骄傲地宣称“华盛顿时刻”已经实现。IMF春季会议于本月在华盛顿召开,20多个成员国的注资承诺使IMF可贷资金规模几乎扩大一倍,增加4300亿美元以上。IMF的官方目标是推动建立“全球防火墙”以摆脱经济危机。私下则希望一个资金充足的IMF可以通过扩从欧元区救助基金来缓和欧洲的恐慌情绪,目前该基金放贷规模已达到7000亿欧元(约合9250亿美元)。Europeans often simplyadd the two numbers together, implying there is now a vast 1.4 trillion dollar stash.Not so. Look behind the fat figures and you find a lot of fuzzy maths andwishful thinking—just as worsening news in Spain brings talk of that countryneeding a rescue (see article).欧洲人总是简单地将这两项金额相加,认为现在欧洲拥有高达1.4万亿的储备资金。事实并非如此。重新审视这个巨额数字,我们会发现大量模糊的数字和一厢情愿的想法——看看西班牙就明白了,不断恶化的局势下,人们纷纷讨论政府是否需要外部救助。Start with the IMF. Assuming countries make good ontheir pledges, the money itself is real. The biggest collectivecontribution will come from the euro-zone countries, which have promised tolend the fund 200 billion dollar between them. Japan is the biggest single donor, with a 60billion dollar pledge motivated partly by a desire not to be eclipsed by China, partlyby fears about its own economic vulnerability. Big emerging economies, such as China, Russiaand Brazil,agreed to chip in. Their contribution, and that of others such as Britain, will be contingent on reforms to thefunds governance, which reduce Europes cloutand increase that of emerging economies. (America, notably, did notcontribute.)我们从IMF开始分析 。假如注资国家兑现他们的承诺,资金可以到位。那么最大的捐赠团体为欧元区国家,他们允诺向IMF注资2000亿欧元;而日本以高达600亿美元的注资抢得头,之所以如此大方,一方面是日本不想被中国的光芒所掩盖,另一方面也表现出对其国内经济脆弱性的担忧。像中国、俄罗斯和巴西这样的新兴经济体也表示了捐助意愿。这些国家(包括英国等国)的注资金额将视IMF的治理改革情况而定,他们希望提升自己在IMF的份额和影响力。值得注意的是,美国表示不会增资IMF。Barring a big fight over its governance, the fund should be flushersoon. But no one wants to write a blank cheque forthe rich euro zone. Canada(which itself did not contribute) called for a double lock: future IMF lendingto the euro zone would need to be approved by a vote among non-Europeanmembers. That probably will not happen, but the fund, at best, will be aminority contributor to future rescues.若果不因治理方式改革而引起成员国的纷争,IMF的钱包将很快鼓起来。可是没有哪个国家愿意给富裕的欧元区开出空白票。加拿大(已经表示拒绝注资)呼吁建立双保险机制:未来IMF向欧元区借款应该取得非欧洲成员国的同意。这难以实现,但至少会使IMF不会充当未来救助工作的“冤大头So the big bucks will have to come from Europesown rescue funds. And they are scantier than they seem. Both the EFSF (theexisting rescue facility) and the ESM (a new permanent fund) need to raiseresources by issuing debt. The EFSF backs its bonds withguarantees from the dwindling number of AAA-rated governments; the ESM willhave some paid-in capital. But both could find it hard to raise the large sumsthat might be required for, say, a swift bank recapitalisation in Spain.由此看出,这一大笔钱只能由欧元区自己的救助基金出,而这些救助基金比我们想象的更缺钱。欧洲金融稳定基金(EFSF,一个已经存在的救助基金)和欧洲稳定机制(ESM,一个新成立的永久性基金)都只能通过发行债券来募集资金。EFSF依靠信用评级为AAA级别的国家的担保来持债券发行,可是欧元区拥有AAA信用评级的国家越来越少;而ESM将会拥有一些实收资本。可是,这两个基金在面对巨额资金需求时(比如西班牙面临的资本迅速重整)都显得力不从心。So speculation is growing that the funds would not bother withhard cash. One idea is for Spainto have a system-wide asset-protection scheme, where the banks toxic assetswould be insured by euro-zone guarantees. Another is for the rescue funds toissue bonds to Spainsown bank-rescue fund, just as the EFSF gave Greek bondholders a bond instead ofcash as part of that countrys debt restructuring.越来越多人猜测这些基金并不用为现金烦恼。一种办法是,西班牙应当建立系统范围的资产保护机制,在该机制下欧元区可为不良资产提供担保。另一种办法是,由救助基金直接向西班牙的救助基金发行债券,正如EFSF向希腊政府债券持有者出售新的债券而不是用现金清偿债务,这也是希腊债务重组的一部分。Another problem is that both the IMF and ESM are considered“preferred creditors”, which means any borrowing from them is first in line forrepayment. If rescue money is sent to the Spanish government to prop up itsbanks, those same banks holdings of government bonds may be worth less. A bigrescue could actually end up reducing confidence. The newly thickened firewallis less solid than it appears.还有一个问题就是IMF和ESM都被看做是优先债权人,这意味着这意味着任何从他们那里得到的借款都必须优先偿还。如果将救助金注入西班牙政府救来帮助其撑本国,其他持有的政府债券很可能贬值。大规模的救助行动很可能最终以削弱市场信心告终。这道新加固的欧洲防火墙并不像看上去那样坚固。 /201305/240663

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