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楼主:乐视对话 时间:2019年12月13日 18:08:47 点击:0 回复:0
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Two pieces of aircraft debris found on beaches in Mauritius and South Africa almost certainly came from Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, say Malaysian and Australian officials.据马来西亚和澳大利亚官方近日表示,在毛里求斯和南非海岸发现的碎片已经几乎可以肯定是来自失踪的MH370客机。It is the latest development in efforts to solve the mystery of the aircraft, which went missing in March 2014.这是自MH370客机014月失联之后,致力于解开关于这架飞机的这一谜团的最新线索。The plane, flying from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, had 239 people on board when it vanished. It is presumed to have crashed into the sea after veering off course. Three ships are searching a 120,000 sq km area of the southern Indian Ocean but have so far found no trace of the plane.这架从吉隆坡飞往北京的客机失联时,机上有239名乘客和机组人员。目前的判断是该客机偏航后坠入大海。不过,有三搜救船只已在南印度洋搜寻了2万平方公里的海域,但迄今为止,并没有发现任何踪迹。Each was found thousands of miles from the search zone, though within the area models of ocean currents have indicated debris could wash up.尽管根据印度洋洋流的走向,可以推断飞机残骸可能已经被冲上岸,但这些已经找到的碎片都是来自距离搜寻区域数千英里外的地方。Speaking on last Thursday, Malaysias Transport Minister Liow Tiong Lai said the team had ;confirmed that both pieces of debris from South Africa and Rodrigues Island are almost certainly from MH370;.马来西亚交通部长廖中莱上周四表示,该团队已经确认,在南非和的毛里求斯的罗德里格斯岛发现的碎片基本可以肯定是属于MH370客机的。The ATSB also said both sections were ;almost certainly; from 9M-MRO, which is the planes registration.此外,澳大利亚运输安全局还表示,这些碎片基本可以确认来自9M-MRO,这正是MH370的注册编号。The ocean search, involving Australia, Malaysia and China, has scoured more than 105,000 sq km of seafloor so far. But the countries have agreed that in the absence of ;credible new information; the search will end by the middle of the year.由澳大利亚、马来西亚和中国联合进行的海洋搜寻,目前已经搜索了超0.5万平方公里的海底。不过,这些国家一致认为,在没有“可靠的新信息”的情况下,搜寻将于今年年中宣告结束。来 /201605/444869In the referendum campaign on Britain’s membership of the EU, each side has one trump card that they will play repeatedly until voting day on June 23. The Remain camp will talk about the economy. The Leavers will talk about immigration.在决定英国是否留在欧EU)内的公投前的造势活动中,双方各有一张王牌;3日的投票日之前,双方都会反复打出自己的那张王牌。留欧阵营会谈经济。退欧阵营则会谈移民。Many diehard Remainers regard the Leave campaign’s stress on immigration as proof that it is a movement that ultimately rests on racism and xenophobia. But immigration is a legitimate issue in this campaign. Indeed, the Leave side would be stupid not to use it since, when voters are asked to name their concerns, they regularly put immigration at the top of the list. In 2015, net migration to the UK hit 333,000, the second-highest number on record, with about half that number coming from the EU.许多死忠的留欧派人士认为,退欧运动对移民问题的强调,明退欧运动归根结底根植于种族主义和仇外心理。但移民是这场“去留之争”中的一个合理问题。事实上,退欧阵营如果不利用这个问题就太愚蠢了,因为选民们在被问到担忧哪些问题时,通常会把移民问题放在问题名单的首位015年,进入英国的净移民人数达到3.3万,这是有纪录以来第二高的数字;这个数字中约一半来自欧盟。For the Leave campaign, immigration from Europe is a gift because it perfectly captures three of the themes that the “Outersmost like to stress: loss of sovereignty, the faulty judgment of elites and the difficulty of achieving meaningful reform of the EU.对退欧运动来说,来自欧洲的移民是天赐的良机,因为这些移民完美地体现了三个主题:主权的丧失,精英的错误判断以及欧盟很难实现有意义的改革。这3个主题正是退欧派人士最喜欢强调的若干主题中个。Hardcore Eurosceptics in the Conservative party have been complaining about loss of sovereignty for decades. But the things that enraged them, such as the EU’s working time directive, are not the sorts of issues that normal people lose sleep over.保守党中的铁杆疑欧论者数十年来一直在抱怨英国丧失了主权。但激怒他们的事情,比如欧盟的《工作时间指令working time directive),并不是会让普通人夜不能寐的那种问题。By contrast, immigration provides a meaningful practical example of what “loss of sovereigntyactually entails. After the arrival of more than 1m migrants from eastern Europe over the past decade, some British voters wanted to call a halt. That put David Cameron, the prime minister, in the awkward position of having to explain that the UK government is powerless to control the flow of migrants from the rest of the EU. The EU’s rules on the free movement of people mandate that all EU citizens have the right to live and work anywhere within the 28-country bloc.相反,移民则提供了一个有意义的现实例子,反映出“丧失主权”实际上到底意味着什么。在过去10年超00万东欧移民来到英国以后,一些英国选民如今想要对移民叫停。这让英国首相戴#8226;卡梅David Cameron)处于一种尴尬的境地,他不得不向民众解释,英国政府其实无力控制来自欧盟其他地方的移民流入。欧盟的人员自由流动规则规定,所有欧盟公民都有权在欧8个成员国中的任何地方生活和工作。One of the basic characteristics of a nation state has traditionally been the right to decide who can live in the country and enjoy the benefits of citizenship. Many voters instinctively feel that this is the way it should still be. But that traditional sovereign right has indeed been sacrificed (or pooled, if you prefer) by EU members.民族国家的一个基本特征就是,有权决定谁能在这个国家生活并享有公民福利。许多选民本能地认为事情如今仍应如此。但欧盟成员国实际上已经牺牲了(如果你愿意,也可以说是共享了)这种传统的主权。The British government’s failure to anticipate the scale of migration from eastern Europe has also fed the public’s scepticism about official pronouncements on the EU. Just before the enlargement of the EU in 2004 to include 10 new members, the government predicted that an average of 13,000 migrants a year would move to Britain from the newly extended bloc. In the event, the figure was more than 10 times that. After this miscalculation, it is hardly surprising if the public now reacts sceptically to government figures about the economic impact of leaving the EU.英国政府当年未能预料到东欧移民的规模,这也催生了公众对有关欧盟的官方意见持怀疑态度。就在欧004年扩大,纳入10个新成员前不久,英国政府还曾预言,平均每年只会有1.3万名来自欧盟新成员国的移民进入英囀?在政府的这次误判后,公众对其公布的有关退欧经济影响的数据抱以怀疑也就并不奇怪了。Once the scale of the immigration into Britain became clear, the UK government tried to secure changes in the EU’s rules on the free movement of people. In October, in the early stages of his attempted re-negotiation with the EU, Mr Cameron promised to “sortthe issue and insisted, “I will not take no for an answer.”看清进入英国的移民规模后,英国政府曾试图促使欧盟改变有关人员自由流动的规定0140月,在刚刚开始尝试与欧盟重新谈判时,卡梅伦曾承诺将“厘清”这个问题,并称将“不达目的决不罢休”。But the Cameron re-negotiation merely highlighted a third Eurosceptic complaint about the EU: that it is an organisation that finds it all-but-impossible to reform itself.但卡梅伦的重新谈判不过是凸显了疑欧论者对欧盟的第三条抱怨:这个组织几乎不可能对自身进行改革。The rules on free movement are one of the “four freedomsthat are regarded as basic to EU membership. But even if there had been leaders around the negotiating table who agreed with Mr Cameron that something needs to change, it was always going to be impossible to secure the agreement of each of the other 27 member states, many of which were under strong domestic pressure to fight for continued free movement of people. Instead, Mr Cameron had to settle for a much weaker reform: delays in the payment of welfare benefits to EU migrants.有四项自由被视为欧盟成员资格的基础,人员的自由流动就是其中之一。即使在谈判桌上有一些领导人认同卡梅伦的观点(即,某些事情需要改革),获取其7个成员国中每一个国家的认同也始终是不可能的(这些国家中许多都承受着强大的国内压力,要求争取延续人员的自由流动)。于是,卡梅伦只得满足于一项力度弱得多的改革:推迟向欧盟移民付福利津贴。Of course, it is also true that there are elements of dishonesty and xenophobia in the way the Leave campaign has used immigration. The Leavers have sometimes deliberately blurred the distinction between legal immigrants from the EU and asylum seekers fleeing the Middle East a powerful tactic, given the current refugee crisis in Europe. Nigel Farage, one of the most prominent Leave campaigners, has even evoked sexual assaults by migrants in Germany as a reason to quit the EU.当然,退欧运动利用移民问题的方式也的确存在不诚实和仇外的成分。退欧派人士有时会故意模糊来自欧盟的合法移民与寻求庇护的中东难民之间的区别——考虑到当前的欧洲难民危机,这是一种强大的战术。退欧运动的旗手之一奈杰#8226;法拉Nigel Farage)甚至曾援引德国移民性侵案作为退出欧盟的理由。At the same time, the Leave campaign has appealed to UK voters with roots outside Europe by suggesting that if Britain leaves the EU it could adopt an immigration policy that allows in more migrants from India and Pakistan. That idea is unlikely to delight the Leaverscore vote in the white working class.同时,退欧运动还暗示,如果英国离开欧盟,英国就可以实施让更多印度和巴基斯坦移民进入英国的移民政策,试图通过这一想法,吸引原籍在欧洲以外的那部分英国选民的持。但退欧阵营在白人工薪阶层中的核心持者不太可能喜欢这个想法。As far as I can see, large-scale migration from Europe has benefited Britain. And many important institutions, from the National Health Service to my local coffee shop, would struggle to get by without it. But then again, as an affluent Londoner, it is predictable that I would take a relaxed view of immigration.在我看来,来自欧洲的大规模移民让英国受益。如果没有移民,从英国国家卫生务体NHS)到我家附近咖啡店的许多重要机构,都将很难维持运转。不过话说回来,像我这样生活殷实的伦敦人,对移民抱着从容的态度也是可以预料的。However, at a time when real wages are stagnant, house prices are rising and public services are creaking, many British people are susceptible to the argument that high immigration is making such problems worse.然而,在实际工资停滞不前,房价越来越高,公共务不堪重负之际,许多英国人容易接受这样的观点:大规模移民正在让这些问题雪上加霜。Are these concerns about immigration real and imagined enough to overwhelm the economic and strategic case for staying inside the EU? Not as far as I am concerned. But I will not be remotely surprised if Britain decides differently on June 23.这些有关移民的顾虑(无论是切实存在的还是子虚乌有的),是否足以压倒留在欧盟内的经济和战略上的理由?在我看来不会。但如果英国3日做出了另外的选择,我也一点儿都不会感到惊讶。来 /201606/448767The Kurds have never been as influential in the Middle East as they are today. They hold the balance of power in Iraq and Syria, and are in the midst of an insurrection in Turkey. But this Kurdish awakening is different from previous ones in Iraq in the 1970s or Turkey in the 1990s. Powers great and small have to contend with Kurdish demands as never before. 库尔德人在中东的影响力从来没有像今天这样大。在伊拉克和叙利亚,他们是维持平衡状态的关键力量;在土耳其,他们发起反叛运动。但是,库尔德人的此次觉醒不同于以往的两次——上世纪70年代在伊拉克的那次、以及上世纪90年代在土耳其的那次。大大小小的势力要挑战库尔德人的诉求,从未像现在这样艰难The US finds itself reluctantly drawn into this Kurdish denouement; it needs the Kurds as much as it needs the Turks in its efforts to defeat Isis, the jihadi group. Yet America’s primary ally in Syria, the Kurdish Democratic Union party (PYD), is being bombarded by its longstanding Nato ally, Turkey. The PYD has proven itself to be the most, if not the only, effective force against Isis; almost all the territory the jihadis have lost since conquering parts of Iraq and Syria in 2014 has been to PYD militias working in tandem with the US air force. The Turks consider the PYD, which is intimately linked to the Turkish Kurdistan Workersparty (PKK), as nothing more than a terrorist organisation. 美国发现自己被动卷入了这场库尔德大戏。在努力击败圣战者组织“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国ISIS)的过程中,美国像需要土耳其人那样需要库尔德人。然而,美国在叙利亚的主要盟友——库尔德民主联盟PYD),遭到了美国在北Nato)中的长期盟友土耳其的连续轰炸。库尔德民主联盟党事实上已经是打击ISIS最有效(甚至可能是唯一有效)的力量;ISIS014年占领伊拉克和叙利亚部分区域以来丢失的领土,几乎全都是失给了库尔德民主联盟党和美国空军的联合行动。土耳其人认为,库尔德民主联盟党无非是一个恐怖组织。库尔德民主联盟党与土耳其的库尔德工人PKK)有密切联系While the US cannot satisfy all parties, the current conundrum also offers opportunities to Washington to push for a grand bargain between Turkey on the one hand and the Syrian and Turkish Kurds on the other that would benefit all sides involved in the region, as well as the US and its struggle against Isis. 尽管美国不可能满足所有各方的要求,但当前困局也为华盛顿提供了机会,可以努力去撮合土耳其与叙利亚和土耳其库尔德人之间达成一笔重大交易。该交易将惠及中东所有相关方,以及美国和美国打击ISIS的战情There is also a sense of urgency as Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, mired in his own controversial effort to transform the Turkish republic from a parliamentary system into a presidential one that would give him wide if not unlimited powers, engages in a dangerous game of brinkmanship. 考虑到土耳其总统雷杰普吠伊普埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)正在玩一场危险的边缘政策游戏,此举也具有一种紧迫感。埃尔多安自己的一种引发争议的尝试眼下也正陷于胶着——他正推动把土耳其共和国由议会制转变为总统制,从而为自己谋取更大(甚至可能是不受限制)的权力He has raised the political ante not just by shelling PYD positions in Syria shells are designed to hurt the PYD as much as disrupt the PYD-American relationship but also attributing a recent terrorist attack in Ankara to the PYD, despite the latter’s denials and the rest of the world’s disbelief. Turkey does not want to differentiate between the PKK and the PYD, despite the efforts of PYD leader Salih Muslim to convince the Turks that the group has no design on Turkish territory and, on the contrary, seeks to co-operate with Ankara. 他已提高了政治赌注,不仅炮击叙利亚境内的库尔德民主联盟党阵地(其目的不仅在于减损库尔德民主联盟党的力量,还在于破坏该党和美国之间的关系),还把库尔德民主联盟党说成是不久前发生在安卡拉的一次恐怖袭击的幕后黑手(尽管该党矢口否认,世界其他地区也不相信)。土耳其非要视库尔德工人党和库尔德民主联盟党为一丘之貉——尽管库尔德民主联盟党领袖萨利赫穆斯利姆(Salih Muslim)努力让土耳其人相信,该党不仅不想染指土耳其领土,相反还寻求与土耳其政府合作What worries Mr Erdogan is that in three of the countries with sizeable Kurdish minorities Turkey, Iraq and Syria the Kurds are on the move. Only in Iran has the regimebeen more or less successful in holding down overt manifestations of Kurdish nationalism, and then only through repression. 令埃尔多安感到担忧的是,在土耳其、伊拉克和叙利亚这三个人口占少数的库尔德人达到相当数量的国家里,库尔德人都在活跃起来。唯有在伊拉克,当局差不多成功地压制住了库尔德民族主义的公开彰显,但这还是靠的镇压Iraqi Kurds, thanks to American intervention, have now established an internationally recognised autonomous federal zone in northern Iraq. Ankara has excellent relations with the leadership of the Kurdistan Regional Government, KRG, and is its single-most important trading partner. The KRG remains an important, if incomplete, symbol of Kurdish self-determination. 得益于美国的干预,伊拉克的库尔德人如今在伊拉克北部建立了一块得到国际承认的联邦自治区。土耳其政府与库尔德地区政府(KRG)的领导人之间保持着融洽的关系,并是后者最重要的单一贸易伙伴。库尔德地区政府仍是库尔德民族自决的一个重要(虽然可能不充分)的标志Turkish Kurds have either been in a state of insurrection or resolute political activism since the 1990s. That has been down to the PKK’s prowess and, more recently, because the main Kurdish political party, the People’s Democratic party, or HDP, performed extremely well and won support from a broad range of liberal Turks in the first of two national elections in 2015. 自上世纪90年代以来,土耳其库尔德人不是处于反叛状态,就是在开展坚决的政治行动。一直以来这要归因于库尔德工人党的强大,近期而言,则也是因为主要的亲库尔德派政党人民民主HDP)015年两场大选中的第一场表现优异,并赢得了土耳其自由派人士的广泛持The Kurdish issue has come to dominate Turkey’s politics. In the process, it has also transformed itself from a primarily rural to an urban and far more sophisticated movement. 库尔德人问题已成为主导土耳其政治的一个议题。在这个过程中,它已逐渐地由一个主要局限在农村地区的问题,转变成为一场立足都市的、比以往复杂得多的运动Mr Erdogan fears that out of the ashes of the Syrian civil war, a new Syrian-Kurdish KRG-like state will arise. Turkey could then face two autonomous Kurdish neighbours on its southern border. This may lead Turkey’s Kurds to seek the same. To his credit, Mr Erdogan had begun peace negotiations with the PKK. However, he repudiated the agreement (which had been signed by his lieutenants) when the PKK rejected his demand that it force the PYD to abandon its quest in northern Syria. 埃尔多安担心,从叙利亚内战的灰烬中,将走出一个新的、类似库尔德地区政府的叙利亚库尔德国家。届时,土耳其在南部可能就要与两个库尔德人自治政府接壤了。这或许会推动土耳其的库尔德人追求同等地位。值得称道的是,埃尔多安曾经已经开启与库尔德工人党的和谈。然而,当库尔德工人党拒绝了埃尔多安提出的由该党迫使库尔德民主联盟党放弃在叙利亚北部行动的要求时,他拒绝了(他的手下签署的)协议The present situation is unstable and could spin out of control, especially with Mr Erdogan calling on the US to choose between Turkey and the PYD. There is, however, a win-win bargain that the US could broker. In exchange for a ceasefire and withdrawal of PKK combatants from Turkey into northern Iraq and Syria, Turkey would promise not to interfere in Syrian Kurdish territories. 当前局势并不稳定,还可能会发生失控,尤其是考虑到埃尔多安正呼吁美国在土耳其和库尔德民主联盟党之间做出选择。然而,美国有可能促成一项双赢协议。为换取停火和库尔德工人党武装撤出土耳其、进入到伊拉克和叙利亚北部,土耳其可承诺不对叙利亚的库尔德人所占领土进行干预The advantages of this deal would include a cessation of the hostilities in Turkey that have left parts of Kurdish areas as devastated as Syrian cities, and claimed the lives of hundreds of civilians and more than 300 security personnel. A deal would also allow the PYD and the US to focus on Isis, while also strengthening the Syrian Kurdsclaim for an equitable post-civil war outcome. 这一协议的好处将包括,结束土耳其境内的敌对状态,这种敌对已使得部分库尔德人区域像叙利亚城市那样满目疮痍,数千平民和00名安保人员丧生。该协议也将让库尔德民主联盟党和美国能够专心对付ISIS,同时也将让叙利亚库尔德人要求在内战后实现公平结果的主张更加有力。来 /201603/429548

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