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2019年11月13日 14:04:39来源:好新闻

Wondering where global growth is headed this year? It might help to keep an eye on today#39;s oil prices.想要知道今年的全球增长情况吗?关注一下当前的油价或许能有所帮助。A sharp drop in global oil demand that began in May was a #39;leading indicator#39; of slowing global growth, as the latest round of gross domestic product data from Europe and Japan have confirmed, says London consulting firm Energy Aspects.伦敦咨询公司Energy Aspects称,自5月份开始全球石油需求大幅下滑是全球增长放缓的“先行指标”,而欧洲和日本公布的最新国内生产总值(GDP)数据也实了这一点。The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, is down 12% from its mid-June peak, the result of tepid demand from European and Asian refineries as well as a perception of reduced geopolitical risk. While prices trawl 14-month lows near 1 a barrel, they are still too high to lure more demand from drivers and other consumers, Energy Aspects says.由于欧洲和亚洲炼油厂需求疲软,加上市场感觉地缘政治风险在下降,作为全球油价基准的布伦特原油价格已较6月中旬高位下跌了12%。Energy Aspects表示,虽然布伦特原油价格已跌至每桶101美元左右的14个月低点,但仍不足以激发驾车者和其他消费者的更多需求。#39;Overall weakness in global oil prices signal that demand has not really picked up#39; yet, the firm says. #39;This raises the question of whether the global economy and stock markets are due for a lurch downwards#39; later this year.Energy Aspects称,全球油价的整体疲软态势表明需求尚未真正回升,这令人怀疑全球经济和股市是否会在今年晚些时候突然下行。The Brent futures market points to sluggish demand. In July, the futures market for global benchmark Brent crude flipped out of backwardation -- when the front-month contract is more expensive that contracts for delivery in later months. Brent is now in contango, meaning that the front-month October contract is cheaper than contracts for later this year and next.布伦特原油期货市场状况显示出需求低迷。7月份,作为全球油价基准的布伦特原油期货价格脱离了倒价结构。所谓倒价结构,是指近月合约的期货价格高于远月合约的价格。目前布伦特原油期货价格处于顺价结构,十月份交割的期货价格低于今年底和明年交割的期货价格。Contango indicates that traders are buying near-term supplies at a discount because there are enough barrels to go around.顺价表明交易员们正在以低价买进短期合约,因为原油供应充足。On Monday, Oman crude oil on the Dubai Mercantile Exchange flipped to contango as well. While Brent is most reflective of the European market, the contango in Oman suggests that the Asian market is also well-supplied.周一,迪拜商品交易所交易的阿曼原油期货合约也出现顺价。布伦特原油是欧洲原油市场走势的风向标,而阿曼原油期货出现顺价则表明亚洲市场供应也很充足。The link between global growth and oil prices does carry some caveats, of course. A geopolitical crisis that threatens oil production from Iraq, Russia or elsewhere could send prices soaring again. And oil demand typically falls in the late summer and early fall as refiners perform seasonal maintenance, so stronger global growth might not show up in oil prices right away.当然,把全球经济增长和油价联系在一起确实需要注意一些问题。威胁到伊拉克、俄罗斯和其他地区原油产量的地缘政治危机可能推动油价再度飙升。由于炼油厂会在夏末秋初之际进行季节性维护,在此期间石油需求一般会出现下跌,因此全球经济增长加速的影响可能不会马上在油价中体现出来。Still, Energy Aspects says, demand for gasoline, diesel and other oil products could be an important indicator in the second half of the year.但是Energy Aspects表示,对汽油、柴油和其他成品油的需求可能是显示下半年经济增长的重要指标。#39;We are definitely not suggesting that the oil market is pointing towards a severe global recession, but [oil markets] may be telling us something about the state of the world economy which economic forecasts are currently not capturing,#39; the firm says.该公司表示,虽然不能确定无疑地说油市走势表明全球经济出现了严重衰退,但也可能从中窥探出经济预期中尚未反映出的全球经济形势的一些情况。 /201408/322188。

  • London is the fifth most expensive city in the world in which to live and work, but its workers are not among the top 10 average earners globally.在全球生活成本最昂贵城市的排名中,伦敦位列第五,但伦敦劳动者的平均收入却未能在全球跻身前十位之列。The findings, from UBS, the Swiss bank, show that the widely held belief among Londoners that the city is painfully pricey to live in has some basis in reality.瑞银(UBS)的研究结果表明,伦敦人对于伦敦是一个生活成本高昂得令人痛苦的城市的普遍看法,是有一些现实依据的。“This suggests London isn’t a highly priced labour market in terms of the purchasing power of goods [and] labour remains quite competitive from a business perspective,” said Bill O’Neill, head of the UK investment office at UBS Wealth Management.“这表明,就商品购买力而言,伦敦不是一个高价的劳动力市场,而从商业角度来说,其劳动市场的竞争依然相当激烈,”瑞银财富管理(UBS Wealth Management)英国投资办事处主管比尔攠尼尔(Bill O’Neill)表示。Excluding rent, London is the sixth most expensive city in the world, and workers’ gross earnings are, on average, the 13th highest.剔除房租,伦敦是全球生活成本第六昂贵的城市,而伦敦劳动者的平均总收入则在全球排名第十三位。UBS compared prices, wages and earners’ purchasing power in 71 cities worldwide in nominal US$ terms. It found that, based on the prices for a standardised basket of 122 goods and services, Zurich, Geneva and New York City were the most expensive cities in the world. The cost of living was lowest in eastern Europe, with Kiev the cheapest city in which to live and work.瑞银按名义美元比较了71个城市的物价、薪资和劳动者购买力。根据由122种商品和务组成的标准化篮子的价格,瑞银发现苏黎世、日内瓦和纽约市是世界上生活成本最昂贵的前三个城市。东欧的生活成本最低,其中基辅是全球生活成本最低的城市。UBS also found that, since the financial crisis, there had been marked divergence in relative labour costs within the eurozone. Since 2009, gross hourly wages have fallen by 2 per cent in Dublin, by 15 per cent in Lisbon, but had risen 11 per cent in Milan.瑞银还发现,在金融危机之后,欧元区各国的相对劳动力成本出现了明显分化。2009年后,都柏林的总时薪降低了2%,里斯本降低了15%,而米兰则上升了11%。Workers in Zurich, Geneva, and Luxembourg earn the highest gross wages. In Nairobi, Jakarta and Kiev, workers receive only about a 20th of average gross earnings in Zurich. Salaries went furthest in Luxembourg, Zurich and Geneva, whereas those in Nairobi and Jakarta had the lowest purchasing power.苏黎世、日内瓦和卢森堡的劳动者的总薪资最高。内罗毕、雅加达和基辅的劳动者平均收入仅为苏黎世的5%左右。卢森堡、苏黎世和日内瓦的购买力最高,而内罗毕和雅加达的购买力则最低。It would take workers in London more than 41 hours to earn enough money to buy an iPhone 6, compared with less than 30 hours in US and Swiss cities. A Big Mac costs almost three hours of average earnings in Nairobi, compared with just nine minutes in Hong Kong — the lowest — and 12 minutes in London.伦敦劳动者需要工作逾41个小时才能赚到足够买一部iPhone6的钱,而美国和瑞士城市的劳动者只需不到30个小时的工作时间。在内罗毕,买一个巨无霸几乎需要三个小时的平均收入,而在香港仅需9分钟——香港的这一数值是全球最低的——在伦敦则需要12分钟。But the affordability of a Big Mac in Hong Kong came at a price. People in Hong Kong work the longest hours, four more a day than workers in Paris, who spend the fewest hours at work.但香港人对巨无霸的购买力是有代价的。香港劳动者的工作时长是全球最长的,平均每个工作日比巴黎劳动者多4个小时,后者是工作时长最短的。On average people worked over 2,000 hours a year in 19 major cities, most of them in Asia and the Middle East.有19个城市——其中大多数位于亚洲和中东——的劳动者平均每年工作时长超过2000个小时。The shortest work schedule and highest number of days of paid vacation are enjoyed by workers in western Europe.西欧劳动者则享受最短的工作时长和最多的带薪休假天数。The UBS study of wages and prices has been running since 1971. The last one, in 2012, found that London was the 10th priciest city in the world, and wages were the 19th highest.瑞银对薪资和物价的研究从1971年持续至今。上一次瑞银发布研究结果是在2012年,当时伦敦在全球城市生活成本排名中位列第十,其薪资水平则排在第十九位。 /201509/399855。
  • Rising incomes, rapid urbanisation and concerns over the toxic smog that enshrouds many of its cities are driving China away from coal and oil and towards natural gas.不断增长的收入、快速推进的城镇化以及人们对笼罩多个中国城市的有毒雾霾的担忧,正促使中国改变对煤炭和石油的依赖,更多地使用天然气。Gas usage has risen almost sevenfold in 13 years to 168bn cubic metres, and China has become the largest consumer after the US and Russia.过去的13年中,中国天然气用量几乎增长了6倍,达到1680亿立方米,中国也成为位居美国和俄罗斯之后的第三大天然气消费国。Further increases are expected. The power, industrial and transport sectors are forecast to drive demand to 315bcm by 2019, according to the International Energy Agency, the wealthy nations’ energy watchdog, and Beijing has set its sights even higher.中国天然气用量有望进一步增长。作为富裕国家能源监督机构的国际能源署(IEA)预测,到2019年时,中国电力、工业和交通部门将推动中国天然气需求量增至3150亿立方米,而中国政府设立的目标则更为高远。But uncertainty remains about the pace of growth into the next decade.但是在下一个十年,中国天然气的发展步伐还存在一些不确定的地方。“Natural gas demand in China has potential to grow much more rapidly than it is now,” says Anne-Sophie Corbeau, senior IEA gas analyst. “However, there is still a lot standing in its way. In some ways we are less optimistic about the Chinese.”“中国天然气需求有潜力实现比现在快得多的增长,”国际能源署高级天然气分析师安妮-索菲#8226;科尔(Anne-Sophie Corbeau)说,“然而,在其前进的路上还有很多障碍。在某些方面,我们对中国的天然气前景不那么看好。”The expansion of the country’s gas sector is a massive logistical and capital investment challenge. Supply availability, delivery infrastructure, pricing levels and policy, and funding to promote gas over other fuels are all factors that dictate the speed at which the switch occurs.中国天然气行业的扩张将给物流和资本投资带来巨大挑战。供应能力、输送基础设施、定价标准和政策、以及推广天然气以取代其他燃料所需的资金,这些都是决定能源结构转换速度的因素。The government wants to boost gas’s share of total energy consumption from 4 per cent to about 8 per cent by the end of 2015 and 10 per cent by 2020, to reduce the plumes of black clouds resulting from heavy coal use.中国政府希望提高天然气在能耗总量中所占的比重,目标是到2015年底将这一比重从现在的4%提高到8%左右,到2020年提高到10%,以减少大量燃烧煤炭造成的黑云。But China’s ability to construct the vast infrastructure network needed to produce, import and transport enough gas to meet demand is under scrutiny.然而,生产、进口和输送足够多的天然气以满足中国的需求,需要庞大的基础设施网络,中国是否有能力建好这个网络,正受到密切的关注。“There is a lot of pent-up demand, particularly over the last decade, but infrastructure and the availability of supply have been a constraint,” says Michael Stoppard, gas strategist at IHS. “They really haven’t been able to develop the gas quickly enough.”“有很多被压抑的需求,特别是在过去10年里,但基础设施和供应能力一直是瓶颈,”咨询机构IHS的天然气策略师迈克尔#8226;斯托帕德(Michael Stoppard)说,“他们确实未能以足够快的速度发展天然气。”Pipelines have been at the top of the agenda. After a decade of negotiations, China struck a 0bn supply deal with Russia in May as part of a long-term strategy to raise gas imports via pipeline and liquefied natural gas. China is also connected to pipeline corridors in central Asia and Myanmar. But these will take years to ramp up to full potential, says Ella Chou at the Brookings Institution’s China Center.管道建设是当务之急。在经过10年的谈判后,中国在5月份与俄罗斯签订了一项价值4000亿美元的天然气供应合同,这是中国通过输气管道和液化气方式提高天然气进口量的长期战略的一部分。另外,中国还连入了中亚和缅甸的管道走廊。但布鲁金斯学会中国中心(Brookings Institution#39;s China Center)的Ella Chou表示,这些举措需要数年时间才能发挥最大潜能。The country, which is believed to hold the world’s largest reserves of shale gas, hopes to replicate the US production boom in the form of tight gas, coal-bed methane and coal-to-gas conversion. But unlike the US shale industry, China does not have thousands of independent oil and gas entrepreneurs competing to expand production.中国被认为是世界上页岩气储量最大的国家。它希望通过发展致密气、煤层气和煤转气来复制美国的天然气繁荣。但中国的页岩油气行业与美国不同,中国没有成千上万独立的油气企业家相互竞争来提高产量。Everything depends on state-owned companies that lack development experience. Exploration rights, geological surveys and the adaptation of drilling and exploration technologies to suit the country have proved problematic, as has pulling together the relevant statistics.在中国,一切都依赖国有企业,这些企业缺乏发展经验。勘探权、地质勘测、改进钻探和勘探技术以适应中国情况,都被明是困难重重,将相关统计数据汇集在一起也是如此。Beijing has halved its target for shale gas production by 2020 to 30bcm, according to Reuters, after efforts to unlock the unconventional fuel ran into difficulties.路透社(Reuters)消息称,尝试开采非常规能源遇到困难后,北京方面将2020年的页岩气开采目标减半到300亿立方米。China became a net gas importer in 2007 and import dependency reached 32 per cent last year. Aside from questions over how quickly indigenous production can increase and whether China can contract enough imports by pipeline, there is a shortage of LNG storage facilities.2007年中国成为了天然气净进口国,去年中国对进口天然气的依存度达到32%。国内产量能以多快的速度增长,中国是否能签订合同进口足够多的管道天然气——除了这两个问题以外,中国还面临着液化天然气贮藏设施短缺的困境。“On top of its long-term contracted gas [deals with] Turkmenistan, Myanmar, Russia, and LNG deals with the Qataris, Australians and Canadians, the ability of the Chinese to continue to grow domestic production – conventional and unconventional – quickly will dictate the needs of extra uncontracted gas that could be at a lower cost,” says Thierry Bros, senior analyst at Société Générale in Paris.“除了与土库曼斯坦、缅甸、俄罗斯达成的长期合约天然气(交易)以及与卡塔尔、澳大利亚和加拿大达成的液化天然气交易以外,中国继续快速提高国内常规和非常规天然气产量的能力,将决定对额外的非合约天然气的需求,这些天然气的价格可能更低,”法国兴业(Société Générale)驻巴黎的高级分析师蒂埃里#8226;布罗斯(Thierry Bros)说。Ultimately demand will be determined by price, analysts say, because of the many alternatives to imported gas that are cost-competitive. The single biggest competitor is power from coal transported via transmission lines to the coastal regions.分析师表示,最终,需求将由价格决定,因为进口天然气的许多替代品的价格也颇具竞争力。其中煤电是最有力的竞争者,煤电通过输电线路传输至沿海地区。Until 2006 growth in consumption was met entirely by relatively low-cost domestic gas supply. However, higher-priced imports have been added to the mix, and their cost has risen considerably with the oil price.2006年之前,价格相对低廉的国内供应的天然气完全可以满足消费量的增长。但是,由于价格较高的进口天然气也进入市场,导致天然气价格随油价猛涨。“Policy makers often have to strike a balance between providing affordable gas supplies to encourage gas penetration, and setting a price that will serve as an incentive for more domestic production and higher imports,” writes Michael Chen of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies in a report.“是提供较为廉价的天然气供应来推广天然气的使用,还是将定价作为激励措施来促使国内提高天然气产量并增大进口量,政策制定者不得不经常在二者中求得平衡,”牛津能源研究所(Oxford Institute for Energy Studies)的Michael Chen在一份报告中写道。Manufacturers, which are aly paying relatively high prices, want to stay competitive in the global market, while Chinese households want to keep their costs low.那些已在付相对较高价格的制造业企业,希望在国际市场上保持竞争力,中国的家庭则希望生活成本不要升高。But without even higher prices, the national oil companies will continue to face significant financial losses, diminishing any incentive around exploration, production and developing unconventional reserves.但是,如果天然气价格无法进一步提高,中国国有石油公司将继续面临巨额经济损失,从而削弱勘探、生产以及发展非常规储备的动力。 /201408/320475。
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