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2019年09月19日 02:43:52    日报  参与评论()人

盐城妇科疾病哪家医院最好的盐城龟头炎症Amid the horror and devastation around Nepal’s Katmandu Valley after Saturday’s 7.8-magnitude earthquake, seismologists and earthquake-focused engineers are remarking on how low the death counts are particularly in the capital compared to many predictions for the densely populated, deeply impoverished and ill-prepared region.在尼泊尔加德满都谷地周六遭遇7.8级地震的恐慌与浩劫中,地震学家和地震方向的工程师们却一直在感叹死亡人数之少,尤其是首都的死亡人数。相对于诸多预估数据,这片人口密集、身陷赤贫又毫无准备的土地上,实际的遇难者要少得多。And this assessment presumes that fatalities will climb much higher than the 4000 counted so far. But to reach even the low end of past estimates, the death toll would have to rise enormously.这种说法所预计的死亡人数要比现在的4000多人高出很多。但即使是按照以往预估的最低值来算,现在的死亡人数也低得多。In 2012, for example, this was the warning for the Katmandu Valley from the ed Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction:例如012年联合国减灾办公ed Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction)就曾向加德满都谷地发出如下提醒:Conservative estimates are that the next big earthquake could result in 100,000 dead, 200,000 injured and one to two million people displaced保守估计,下一场大地震将造成10万人遇难0万人受伤00万至200万人无家可归。Why the difference? For one thing, it appears that, at least for the capital, this earthquake was not nearly a worst case.实际状况为何与此相去甚远?一方面,至少以首都的情况来看,这并非最严重的一次地震。If the great 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake occurred with today’s population and structures, vastly higher losses would occur, as GeoHazards International and Nepal’s National Society for Earthquake Technology found in a 1999 analysis.国际地质灾害组织(GeoHazards International)与尼泊尔国家地震技术科学会(Nepals National Society for Earthquake Technology)1999年发布分析报告称,如934年的比哈尼泊尔地Bihar-Nepal earthquake)重演,以如今的人口规模和结构来看,死亡人数将大幅上升。Susan E. Hough, a ed States Geological Survey seismologist, sent these thoughts on Sunday:美国地质调查局的地震学家苏珊·E·哈夫(Susan E. Hough)周日时发表了如下观点:As tragic as the losses are, it seems clear the city was not flattened. I’ve been struck by damage photos not only the damage they show, but the damage they don’t show to apparently intact buildings in the background. This seems to go hand-in-hand with the ShakeMap, which is poorly constrained but shows intensities 7-8 in the near-field, not 9-10.尽管伤亡人数令人悲叹,但很明显这座城市并没有被夷为平地。看到受灾地照片我很震惊——不仅是被它们所呈现的受灾状况震惊,更被它们所无意呈现的,背景里完好无损的建筑所震惊。这一切似乎和缺乏约束的地震动预测ShakeMap)相吻合,显示-8级烈度的近场地震,而非9-10级。I’m thinking it will be an interesting part of the earthquake story, understanding the ground motions in the near field. There should be at least some strong motion data from Katmandu, and maybe elsewhere. It kills me there isn’t more: I tried to put together a proposal a few years ago to install more dense low-cost accelerometers in the valley, working with NSET [Nepal’s National Society for Earthquake Technology] and Tribuvan University. I was involved with a proposal that went in a year or so ago I do think preparedness efforts made a difference. Amod Dixit and his team at NSET have worked tirelessly on outreach, education, and training.我想这会成为地震史上对近场地动认知的有趣一幕。加德满都应该至少有一些强烈地动的数据,也许其他地方也有。但只有这些,这让我很烦恼:我试图整合几年前和尼泊尔国家地震技术科学会(NSET)和特里万布大Tribuvan University)合作的一个在谷地更密集地安装低成本测震仪的提案。我还参与了一年多前的一个提案……我认为事先准备是有效可靠的。阿莫德·迪克斯特(Amod Dixit)和他在尼泊尔国家地震技术科学会的团队一直孜孜不倦地在范围、教育和训练方面探索研究。The population was not ignorant. Fatalism arises when problems are so far outside people’s control that they can’t do anything about it or rather, they think they can’t do anything about it.人们并非完全一无所知。但当问题超出可控范围,人们无力回天的时候,宿命论就会占上风——或者说,人们自以为无力回天的时候。And yes that paragraph is contradictory. The thing is, the overall problem was far outside anyone’s control but it is still possible to make some difference.好吧,上一段的确很矛盾。关键在于,当整体问题完全失控的时候,我们依然是可以做出些改变的。Port-au-Prince is mostly the same story: big problems, big earthquakes, few resources. By my calculation, ground motions in Port-au-Prince were not intensity 9-10, but maybe 6-8. The story again was vulnerability.太子港的情况也差不多:问题棘手,地震严重,资源稀缺。据我个人计算,太子港地动烈度并-10级,可能-8级。那一次的问题,也是抗震能力。I also asked her if there’s any concern about this being misperceived as the worst that could happen.我还问了她此次地震误解为最严重的一次是否有什么影响。Could something bigger happen in Nepal? Sure.尼泊尔会发生更严重的地震吗?当然有可胀?There’s the megathrust segment immediately west of this earthquake, which we believe last broke in 1505. It’s the usual story, though: we don’t know when. The odds of subsequent big earthquakes always go up after a major earthquake. Ironically, the most dangerous time, statistically, is always just after a major earthquake has happened. But still it’s a low probability. We e a 1-in-20 chance that something bigger will happen within 3 days, but the odds drop quickly with each passing hour. By this time [Sunday], the odds are more like 1-in-100. And the odds of an earthquake much larger than 7.8 are much lower still. It is possible, maybe even inevitable, that both Port-au-Prince and Nepal will be hit with stronger ground motions than what they’ve seen in recent years.在地震发生地以西不远处就有一个大地震破裂段,据信,其上次破裂是在1505年。但通常情况是这样的:我们不知道它何时会破裂。随后发生大地震的几率总是在一次严重地震发生后攀升。讽刺的是,数据表明,最危险的时候,总是在一次严重地震刚刚发生之后。但是概率还是很低的。一场更大的地震将在3日内发生的可能,我们在此引用10这样一个几率,但是这种几率是逐小时迅速下降的。到现在(周日),这个几率大概是100。且发生一次远远强.8级的地震的几率比这还要低得多。太子港和尼泊尔都遭遇比近年来两地所经受过的更为强烈的地震,是可能的,甚至是不可避免的。So the city of Katmandu, while still reeling, has clearly been spared what could have been a far higher death count given rapid urbanization in recent years (driven in part as people fled political turmoil in the hinterlands), poor quality of construction, lack of emergency services and other glaring issues.所以加德满都这座城市——尽管其还在经受重重余震——鉴于其近年来迅猛的城市化进程(部分是人们逃离内陆政治动荡的结果)、差劲的建筑质量、应急务的缺失及其他显而易见的问题,显然幸运地避免了更惨重的伤亡。The focus at the moment should be supporting rescue and relief efforts. But it’s also vital for Nepal and international aid agencies and organizations to redouble efforts to rebuild with the worse in mind.此刻的重点应该是持救援救灾工作。但对尼泊尔和国际援助机构和组织来说,带着最糟糕的预设去加倍为重建努力至关重要。The geological forces creating the earthquake hazard in Nepal and throughout the region are not abating, as Kenneth Chang wrote.正如肯尼斯·张(Kenneth Chang,音译)所写道的,在尼泊尔及整个周边地区造成地震灾害的地质营力(指引起地质作用的自然力——编注)并未减弱。Rural Devastation满目疮痍的乡村Of course the other factor behind the low death counts so far is that estimates of deaths have mainly come from the capital and larger towns in the affected region, while small communities have been largely cut off.当然,低死亡人数背后的另一个因素,是对于死亡人数的估计主要来自于首都和受灾地区的其他较大城镇,但小村镇大多还处于人员无法进入的状态。Several earthquake analysts focused on the Himalayas said they would be surprised if the death toll ended up lower than 10,000 once rural towns and villages, hammered by landslides and building collapses, finish assessing losses. It could easily end up far higher.关注喜马拉雅山的几位地震分析人士说,如果在遭受了山体滑坡、建筑倒塌的农村乡镇和村庄完成伤亡评估后,死亡人数最终还低于1万人,他们将感到惊讶。死亡人数很容易就会攀升至比这高得多的水平。Scan Facebook or Twitter using these hashtags for affected villages to get the idea: #Sindhupalchowk #Gorkha #Nuwakot #Rasuwa #Dhading.用这些标签在Facebook或Twitter上检索信息,来了解受灾村庄的情况吧:#Sindhupalchowk #Gorkha #Nuwakot #Rasuwa #Dhading。(震前震后对比图见图一)There has been a steady flood of appeals for help on social media, speaking of enormous, as-yet-uncounted losses. Here’s one, from the Facebook page of The Darjeeling Chronicle:在社交媒体上,一直不断出现着如潮涌般的求助信息,它们都是关于巨大的、到目前为止还未被统计过的伤亡损失。这里是来自《大吉岭纪事报The Darjeeling Chronicle)Facebook页面的求助信息(见图二)。Here’s a final thought from Thomas Parsons, also of the Geological Survey:这是地质调查局的托马斯·帕森Thomas Parsons)的一个最后总结:Unfortunately the tolls of this earthquake will likely rise with time as news from the more remote areas emerges. The intensity maps I’ve seen for Nepal are comparable to the M7.6 2005 Kashmir earthquake (similar Himalayan foothills setting) where 80,000+ people perished. I don’t know anything about the population density in the strongest shaking zone in Nepal; hopefully it is lower than in the Pakistan case and construction standards are better (that’s just a hope, I don’t know).很不幸,这场地震的死亡人数将很可能会随着来自更偏远地区的新闻报道渐渐出现而升高。我所见到的尼泊尔的强度分布图,堪005年克什米尔那场7.6级地震(类似的喜马拉雅山脚下环境),万人在那场地震中丧生。我完全不知道尼泊尔地震最强烈的那个区域的人口密度是多少;希望它比巴基斯坦那个地震发生地的密度低、建筑标准更高(这只是一个希望,我不知道这些信息)。However, it appears that, other than some localized Katmandu basin effects, the city may have been spared from the most intense shaking. Had the earthquake been centered more to the east, this could have been substantially worse. In addition to possibly delayed reporting, we also have to worry about large aftershocks nearer to Katmandu (like the Darfield-Christchurch New Zealand example). Sometimes these can be delayed long enough to make improvements. For example, there were 5 years separating the 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan China and 2013 M6.6 Lushan earthquakes.然而,看起来,除了一些局部的加德满都盆地效应,这座城市可能躲过了最强烈的震动。要是震中往东移动一些,情况本可能糟糕得多。除了可能有延迟的报道,我们还应该担心更靠近加德满都的大型余震(像新西兰达菲尔德[Darfield]-基督城的那个例子)。有时,余震会迟至已有足够时间改善情况之后才发生。比如,中国汶川2008年的7.9级地震,与芦013年的6.6级地震之间相隔了五年。To get a sense (a chilling sense) of how popluation patterns have amplified exposure to earthquake hazards in the region, have a look at this map from GeoHazards International (a high-resolution version is here, part of a broader analysis), which shows the quake zone with population densities superimposed:图三可以帮助你理解(惊恐地理解)区域内的人口模式是如何扩大地震危害的。这张地图来自地质国际(大图请点击这里)同时标明了震区和人口密度:If you missed it, here’s my initial post, shortly after the quake struck, noting that the entire Himalayan region faces an extraordinary danger from the conjunction of relentless tectonic activity, rapid population growth and vulnerable construction.如果你没有看到,这是我最初的文章,震后不久,我注意到整个喜马拉雅地区面临着由于版块不断运动、人口急剧增长及构造脆弱造成的巨大危险。来 /201504/372642阜宁县做人流哪家医院最好的 Police in Hong Kong have arrested nine people on suspicion of “conspiracy to manufacture explosivesjust days before lawmakers in the Chinese territory vote on a highly contentious, Beijing-approved proposal for electoral reform.香港警方逮捕了涉嫌“串谋制造爆炸”的9人,就在本周三,这个中国特别行政区的立法会委员将投票表决一项中央已批准的、高度争议性的选举改革提案。The police said on Monday that the five men and four women, aged 21-34, had been detained after discovering that two members of the “local syndicateplanned to test explosive material on Sunday night.警方周一表示,被拘留的五男四女年龄介1岁至34岁。此前,警方在周日晚发现两名属于“本地激进组织”的人士试图进行引爆测试。They seized several kilogrammes of chemicals, including the precursor for triacetone triperoxide, an explosive substance, and the formula to make smoke grenades, as well as air guns and maps of Wan Chai and Admiralty, two areas in downtown Hong Kong that contain government and corporate offices.警方查获了数公斤的化学品,包括高爆炸性炸药“三过氧化三丙酮TATP) 的化学原料,还发现了制造烟雾弹的化学程式、以及湾Wan Chai)和金Admiralty)的地图——这两个地段有很多政府和企业办公楼。Political tensions have been rising in Hong Kong ahead of a crucial vote on Wednesday, when the 70 members of the legislative council will debate the government’s plan to allow citizens to elect the next chief executive by universal suffrage in 2017.近来香港的政治紧张不断升温,本周三将举行关键投票,届0名立委将围绕让市民在2017年通过普选产生下一届行政长官的政府计划展开辩论。The government, led by chief executive CY Leung, says this reform will give Hong Kong citizens real choice. But opposition legislators, who have enough seats in the legislative council to block the reform, say restrictions on who can stand for election mean it amounts to “fake democracy现任行政长官梁振CY Leung)领导的香港政府表示,这一改革将会给香港市民真正的选择。但是,在立法会拥有足够席位否决改革的反对派立委表示,针对谁可以参选的限制意味着这一方案是“假民主”。Groups for and against the proposal have vowed to protest outside the legislative council, and the government and police have called for all sides to do so peacefully.持以及反对选举改革方案的团体都已誓言要在立法会外举行抗议,政府和警方则呼吁各方以和平方式表达意见。Au Chin-chau, chief superintendent of the police’s organised crime and triad bureau, said at a press conference that some of the nine people arrested were members of a “radical groupbut declined to identify it, citing “operationalreasons.香港警务处有组织罪案及三合会调查科总警司区展秋(Au Chin-chau)在新闻发布会上表示,被捕人中,有一部分人士是一个激进组织的成员,但称出于“行动”理由,不能透露该组织的名称。He refused to say whether the explosives suspects were planning to injure or kill, saying only that the “police are looking into all lines of inquiry and won’t rule anything out他拒绝透露制造爆炸物的嫌疑人是否打算造成人身伤害或致人死亡,只表示“警方将对案件作全方位调查,不排除任何可能性。”During the briefing, the police laid out the objects they had seized from the nine, which included computers, smartphones, a 3D printer and the Guy Fawkes masks popular with protesters around the world.在新闻发布会上,警方展示了他们从9名嫌疑人查获的物件,包括电脑、智能手机、一台三维打印机,以及世界各地的抗议者都爱佩戴的盖伊#8226;福克Guy Fawkes)面具。They also displayed confiscated stickers with slogans critical of the government and China, such as 7 years after handover and corruption has gone backwards 70 yearsand “CY Leung go to hell, the hooligan police and their families die他们还展示了没收的批评香港政府和中央的贴纸,比如“回归十七年,贪污倒退七十年”以及“振英落地狱,黑警死全家”。Mr Au said the police investigation was ongoing and that “we will not preclude the possibility of further arrests区展秋表示,警方的调查仍在进行,并称:“不排除进一步逮捕的可能性”。He added that Hong Kong citizens should “avoid being incited or used by others to get involved in violent acts他补充说,香港市民应“不要受到滋事分子教唆及利用,参与暴力行为”。Political violence is extremely rare in Hong Kong although there were some clashes between police and activists during last year’s Occupy protests.政治暴力是香港极为罕见的,尽管在去年的“占领中环”抗议期间,警方和活动人士之间发生了一些冲突。来 /201506/381117盐城协和医院无痛人流费用

建湖县人民医院看泌尿科怎么样Charleston police have confirmed that nine people were killed in an attack on one of the southern city’s historic black churches that will prompt another reassessment of race relations in the US.美国南部城市查尔斯顿的警方确认,当地时间周三晚在该市一座历史悠久的黑人教堂发生的击案,导人丧生。这一事件将引发对美国种族关系的再次讨论。Police, speaking for the first times after the shooting occurred, said that the suspect in the shootings, described as a 21-year-old white male, was still at large. Officials described the attack as a “hate crime当地警方在击案发生后的首次表态中称,击案嫌疑人仍未落网。据称,嫌疑人是一1岁的白人男子。官方表示,这次袭击事件是一次“仇恨犯hate crime,指针对某一特定社会群体成员的歧视性犯罪行为——译者注)”。The scale of the tragedy will only further inflame racial tensions in a city and in a nation that has only recently seen a flare-up of anger over the killing of an unarmed black man, Walter Scott, by North Charleston police. It also comes at time when the US been racked by divisions between black men and its police force.最近,北查尔斯顿警方击毙了未携带武器的黑人沃尔#8226;斯科Walter Scott),引发了公众的怒火。此外,黑人和警方之间的分歧也在撕裂整个美国社会。最新击案对该市紧张的种族关系将是一次火上浇油。The shooting occurred at Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal (AME) Church, which has a history among black American churches going back to 1791击事件发生在伊曼纽尔非裔卫理圣公会教堂(Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal (AME) Church)。这一黑人教堂的历史可以回溯至1791年。“The only reason someone would walk into a church and shoot people that were praying is hate,said Charleston Mayor Joseph P Riley查尔斯顿市长约瑟#8226;P#8226;赖利(Joseph P Riley)表示:“一个人走进教堂,击在那里祈祷的人们,唯一可能的动机就是仇恨。”According to Charleston officials, eight people died at the scene, Two people were taken to the Medical University of South Carolina, and one of them died on the way.根据查尔斯顿官方的说法,8人在击案中当场死亡,两人被送往南卡罗来纳医药大Medical University of South Carolina),其中一人在途中丧生。来 /201506/382086盐城做人工流产要多少时间 盐城/市第三人民医院看妇科好不好

盐城协和医院怎么样President Barack Obama lamented America’s “slow-rolling crisis as National Guard troops were positioned across Baltimore and residents cleaned up after the worst rioting in the port city since the 1968 assassination of Martin Luther King.美国总统巴拉#8226;奥巴Barack Obama)感叹美国“缓慢发酵的危机”。在巴尔的发生968年马#8226;路德#8226;Martin Luther King)遇刺以来最严重的骚乱之后,国民警卫National Guard)官兵被部署到这个港口城市的街头巷尾,市民们开始清理。In the aftermath of the Monday night violence that followed the funeral of Freddie Gray, a 25-year-old black man who died in police custody from as yet unexplained spinal injuries, the president called for reform and the retraining of police departments. He also advocated a broader push to bring opportunities to deprived communities through education, job training and infrastructure investment.25岁的黑人弗雷#8226;格雷(Freddie Gray)在被警方羁押期间,由于至今无法解释的脊椎损伤而丧生。周一晚上,在他的葬礼之后,巴尔的爆发了严重暴力活动。事件发生后,奥巴马呼吁改革美国各地的警察局,并对其进行重新训练。他还倡议发起整体努力,通过教育、就业培训和基础设施投资为贫困社区带来更多机遇。“This is a slow-rolling crisis that has been going on for some time. This is not new,he said at a White House press conference yesterday.在昨日白宫举行的记者会上,奥巴马表示:“这是一场已持续一段时间的缓慢发酵的危机,不是什么新情况。”“Since Ferguson, we have seen too many instances of what appears to be police officers interfering with individuals, often African Americans and poor. It comes up almost once a week,the president said, referring to the conflagration in the Missouri City after the police shooting of a black teenager.奥巴马提到密苏里州弗格森市警方射杀一名黑人少年后引发的激烈抗议。他说:“自弗格森事件以来,我们已看到太多似乎是警方妨碍个人的案子,而这些个人往往是非裔美国人和穷人。这种事几乎每周都会发生。”He said that the riots had been the work of a “handful of criminals and thugsand that they “need to be treated as criminals As police helicopters flew overhead, volunteers carrying cleaning equipment were joined by residents from across the city who wanted to help the western district of Mondawmin to recover from the violence that erupted there on Monday.他说,骚乱是“少数犯罪分子和暴徒”挑起的,这些人“需要被当作犯罪分子对待”。在巴尔的,警方的直升机在空中盘旋之际,市民们加入了携带清洁器材的志愿者的行列,大家都希望帮助该市西部蒙道敏区(Mondawmin)从周一爆发的暴力活动中恢复过来。“I cried all day yesterday,said Cynthia Swann, who had come with her sister to lend support.与一道来提供持的辛西娅#8226;斯旺(Cynthia Swann)表示:“昨天我哭了一整天。”Ms Swann stressed she did not condone the violence, but added that rioters were venting a frustration that was felt by the whole community because of what she described as frequent abusive treatment by the local police.斯旺女士强调,她并不宽容暴力行为。但她补充说,骚乱分子所发泄的不满情绪,整个社区都能感觉到,其原因是她所称的当地警方频繁的苛待。Since the death of Mr Gray, six police officers have been suspended and the justice department is investigating. “The western district police have had their feet on this community for years,said Ms Swann, adding that tensions were exacerbated by high unemployment.格雷死后名警员已被停职,司法部正展开调查。斯旺表示:“多年来,西区警察一直把这个社区踩在脚下。”她还补充说,居高不下的失业率加剧了紧张局面。The Justice Policy Institute think-tank said 45 per cent of the working age population in Mondawmin did not have jobs. Meanwhile, chronic high school truancy runs at about 33 per cent.智库——司法政策研究所(Justice Policy Institute)表示,蒙道敏5%的劳动年龄人口没有工作。同时,长期高企的高中逃课率目前为33%左右。“They are going to keep going until they get justice,said Nathaniel Edwards, 29, who had known Gray since they were children.现年29岁、从小认识格雷的纳撒尼尔#8226;爱德华兹(Nathaniel Edwards)表示:“他们会坚持到正义得到伸张为止。”A state of emergency has been declared and Larry Hogan, governor, said 5,000 National Guard troops and another 5,000 police from other states had been called to Baltimore.马里兰州已宣布进入紧急状态。州长拉#8226;霍根(Larry Hogan)表示000名国民警卫队官兵及另000名来自其他州的警察已被调往巴尔的。来 /201505/372658 Moodys has cut Japans credit rating one notch to A1 only the fifth-best investment grade - sending the yen to a new seven year low against the dollar.穆迪(Moodys)将日本的信用评级下调一级,降至A1级,这一级别在投资级评级里只排第五。此举令日元兑美元汇率跌至新的七年内最低点。The rating agency said that the downgrade was triggered by rising uncertainty over the success of prime minister Shinzo Abes drastic economic, fiscal and monetary reforms dubbed ;Abenomics;.该评级机构表示,引发这次降级的原因是“安倍经济学(Abenomics)”能否成功的不确定性日益增加。所谓“安倍经济学”,是指日本首相安倍晋Shinzo Abe)推行的激进的经济、财政及货币改革举措。The government was recently forced to shelve the second of two sales tax increases after the first one pushed the country back into recession.最近,在第一次提高消费税的举措令日本重陷衰退之后,日本政府曾被迫搁置第二轮增税措斀?The Bank of Japan has ramped up its quantitative easing programme and Mr Abe has called a new election for a fresh electoral endorsement of his programme, but concerns that the bold attempt to break free from two decades of deflation and stagnation have climbed markedly recently.此前,日本央BoJ)已加大了量化宽松的力度。而安倍晋三也曾要求提前举行选举,以便让他的计划再次得到选民认可。安倍试图通过这些举措,令日本摆脱长达20年的通缩和经济停滞。然而,人们对安倍这些大胆尝试的担忧最近正在急剧升高。Moodys said the downgrade was caused by穆迪表示,调降日本评级的原因是:1.Heightened uncertainty over the achievability of fiscal deficit reduction goals;1.日本实现减赤目标的不确定性加大;2.Uncertainty over the timing and effectiveness of growth enhancing policy measures, against a background of deflationary pressures; and2.在通缩压力下,日本促增长政策的时机和效果充满不确定性;3.In consequence, increased risk of rising JGB yields and reduced debt affordability over the medium term.3.在上述不确定性的影响下,日本中长期国债收益率攀升和债务负担能力降低的风险加大。来 /201412/346202响水县治疗性功能障碍哪家医院最好的盐城哪家的安全无痛人流医院好

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