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来源:普及大全    发布时间:2019年08月19日 00:21:44    编辑:admin         

Europe’s fightback against populism was going well for a couple of hours. 欧洲对民粹主义的反击取得了几个小时的胜利。On Sunday afternoon, it emerged that the far-right candidate had lost the Austrian presidential election. 上周日下午,有消息称,极右翼候选人在奥地利总统大选中折戟。But the good news from Austria was drowned out by bad news that same evening, from the other side of the Alps. 但当晚来自阿尔卑斯山另一侧的的坏消息吞噬了奥地利的这个好消息。Matteo Renzi, the Italian prime minister, had lost his referendum on constitutional reform and confirmed that he will resign.意大利总理马泰伦齐(Matteo Renzi)在宪法改革公投中失利,并实他将辞职。The consequences for Europe of Italy’s referendum result are not as obviously dramatic as those of Britain’s referendum in June. 意大利公投结果对欧洲造成的影响不像今月英国退欧公投那样引人注目。The British voted to leave the EU. 英国人最终投票决定脱离欧EU)。The Italians have simply rejected some complex constitutional changes, which many experts regarded as ill conceived in the first place.意大利人则反对一些复杂的宪法改革,很多专家认为这些改革从一开始就考虑不周。And yet Brexit and the Renzi resignation do form part of the same story. 然而英国退欧和伦齐辞职却是同一个故事的一部分。The European project is under unprecedented strain. 欧洲一体化正面临空前压力。Britain’s decision to leave is the most striking evidence of this. 英国决定脱欧就是最明显的据。But, in the long run, the unfolding crisis in Italy could pose a more severe threat to the survival of the EU. 但长期而言,意大利正在爆发的危机可能会给欧盟的生存带来更严重的威胁。The reasons for this are political, economic and even geographic.其原因有政治的、经济的、甚至地理的。Italy, unlike Britain, is one of the six founding members of the EU. 与英国不同,意大利是欧盟6个创始成员国之一。The original European Economic Community was founded through the Treaty of Rome, signed in 1957. 原来的欧洲经济共同体(European Economic Community)是通过1957年签订的《罗马条约Treaty of Rome)创建的。While the British were always the most Eurosceptic of the big EU nations, the Italians were traditionally the most enthusiastic unifiers.英国一直是欧盟大国中最疑欧的,但意大利传统上是最热情的统一者。But attitudes to the EU in Italy have changed profoundly in response to the country’s long economic stagnation, the euro crisis and fears over illegal migration. 但意大利对欧盟的态度发生了巨大变化,这是该国经济长期停滞、欧元危机以及对非法移民的担忧的结果。It is hardly surprising that Italian voters are disillusioned with the status quo. 意大利选民对现状感到失望,这毫不令人意外。Italy has lost at least 25 per cent of its industrial production since the financial crisis of 2008. 008年金融危机以来,意大利工业产量至少萎缩了25%。Youth unemployment stands at almost 40 per cent. 年轻人失业率维持在近40%的水平。Unsurprisingly, many Italians associate the advent of the euro with a near-depression. 难怪很多意大利人将欧元的问世与几近萧条联系在一起。Indeed, some economists believe the euro has been disastrous for Italy’s competitiveness, taking away the tools of currency devaluation and creating a deflationary environment that increases the debt burden.实际上,一些经济学家认为,欧元对于意大利的竞争力是灾难性的,它夺走了汇率贬值工具并创造了一个通缩环境,加重了债务负担。Against this grim backdrop, it is possible that Mr Renzi will be one of the last Italian prime ministers to represent his country’s traditional pro-European stance. 在这种悲观背景下,伦齐有可能成为最后一批代表意大利传统亲欧立场的意大利总理之一。Of late, even he had taken to Brussels-bashing expressing understandable disillusionment with a lack of help with the hundreds of thousands of refugees landing on Italian shores. 最近,他甚至开始抨击欧盟——欧盟在解决抵达意大利海岸的数十万难民问题上没有提供帮助,他对此表达了可以理解的失望。The Renzi government has also chafed against the economic austerity prescribed in Berlin and Brussels.伦齐政府还对德国和欧盟提出的经济紧缩方案感到愤怒。Nonetheless, Mr Renzi remained basically pro-European. 然而,从根本上来说,伦齐仍是亲欧的。That is not true of the opposition parties that are now waiting in the wings. 而蠢蠢欲动的反对党派则不是这样。The Five Star Movement, led by comedian Beppe Grillo, played a prominent role in defeating Mr Renzi. 由喜剧演员贝格里Beppe Grillo)领导的五星运动党(Five Star Movement)在击败伦齐方面发挥了突出作用。Five Star is adamant in its demand that Italy regain sovereignty from Brussels and has proposed a referendum on leaving the euro. 该党坚决要求意大利应从欧盟那里夺回主权,并提出就脱离欧元区举行公投。Mr Grillo also sees his movement as part of a general anti-establishment wave across the west and hailed the victory of Donald Trump in the US as a triumph over the Freemasons, huge banking groups and the Chinese.格里洛还把他领导的运动视为一场席卷西方的反建制普遍浪潮的一部分,并称赞唐纳特朗Donald Trump)赢得美国总统大选是对共济会(freemason)、大集团以及中国的胜利。The reasons that Italian populism may ultimately threaten the EU even more profoundly than Brexit are not simply to do with Italy’s traditional commitment to the European ideal. 意大利民粹主义对欧盟的威胁可能最终会超过英国退欧,其原因不仅仅是与意大利一直以来对欧洲理想的承诺有关。Also crucial is the fact that Italy uses the euro while Britain has kept its own currency. 同样重要的是,意大利使用欧元,而英国保留自己的货币。So, while Brexit is a painful and complicated business, it does not directly threaten the survival of the single currency or risk unleashing a financial crisis. 因此,尽管英国脱欧是痛苦且复杂的,但不会直接威胁到欧元的生存,也不会引发一场金融危机。However, the chain of events set off by Mr Renzi’s referendum defeat could potentially do both.然而,伦齐公投失败引发的一连串事件可能会造成这两种结果。The immediate danger is to the Italian banking system. 眼下的危险是对意大利业体系的威胁。In the new atmosphere of crisis, the proposed recapitalisation of troubled lenders in particular Monte dei Paschi di Siena is threatened. 在新的危机气氛中,拟议的对境况不佳的资本重组(特别是西雅那银Monte dei Paschi di Siena))面临危险。That could lead to demands for state bailouts, which will be difficult given that the state is aly heavily indebted. 这可能引发政府纾困的请求,鉴于意大利政府已背负沉重的债务,纾困将非常困难。Revived worries about the size of Italy’s debt could then frighten investors, driving up interest rates and threatening the solvency of the Italian state itself.再度产生的对于意大利债务规模的担忧可能会让投资者感到恐慌,这将推升利率并威胁意大利政府自己的偿付能力。It would be much harder to organise an EU bailout of Italy than it was to rescue Greece. 与救助希腊相比,组织一场欧盟对意大利的纾困将困难得多。Given the size of the economy, the amounts of money involved could be far larger which would probably trigger a political revolt in the German parliament, particularly with parliamentary elections due there next September. 鉴于意大利经济的规模,纾困涉及的资金规模要大得多,这可能会引来德国议会的政治抗议,尤其是在明月德国将举行议会选举的情况下。At that point, the break-up of the euro would once again become a very real prospect.到那时,欧元解体可能会再次成为一种非常切实的可能。Set against this is the Italian talent for muddling through politically and economically while always avoiding ultimate collapse. 不过,意大利具有一种在政治和经济上得过且过又总能避免最终垮台的天分。The EU seems to have developed something of the same talent over the long years of the euro crisis.在多年的欧元危机中,欧盟似乎也培养出了这种天分。Yet even if Italy manages to patch together a new government and avoid a banking crisis, the broader picture is still bleak. 然而,即便意大利成功组建新政府并规避业危机,更广泛的前景仍然悲观。Its economy is stagnating and its political centre is disintegrating. 意大利经济仍在停滞,其政治中心正在瓦解。Nationalists and populists are also on the rise in EU countries including Spain, Poland, France and the Netherlands.此外,民族主义者和民粹主义者也正在其他欧盟国家崛起,包括西班牙、波兰、法国和荷兰。Britain has promised to submit its formal notification of its decision to leave the EU next March. 英国承诺将于明年3月递交其正式退欧决定通知。That same month, the union’s leaders are meant to gather in Italy to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the signature of the Treaty of Rome. 同一个月,欧盟领导人将在意大利聚首,庆祝《罗马条约》签0周年。At this rate, it will be more of a wake than a party.按照当前的事态发展,那将更像是一场葬礼前的守夜,而非聚会。来 /201612/482051。

Vietnam has quietly extended a runway on Spratly Island to enable the deployment of maritime spy planes as Hanoi bolsters its defences against China in the disputed South China Sea.越南悄悄延长了其在斯普拉特利岛(Spratly Island,中国称南威岛)的一条飞机跑道,以便有能力部署海上侦察机。目前越南正在有争议的南中国海加强对中国的防御。Satellite images obtained by the Financial Times show Vietnam has expanded the runway from less than 2,500ft to about 3,300ft. 英国《金融时报》获得的卫星图片显示,越南将这条跑道从不500英尺延长到了3300英尺左右。The extension allows the deployment of maritime surveillance aircraft from Spratly for the first time, a move that comes as China builds up its own military facilities on and around nearby islands.这令越南得以首次从斯普拉特利岛部署海上侦察机,目前中国在邻近岛屿以及周边海域兴建了自己的军事设施。This is a familiar pattern for Hanoi, said Gregory Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, who supplied the images, taken over the past 22 months. 对于越南而言,这是一种司空见惯的做法,亚洲海事透明倡议(Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative)主任格雷波林(Greg Poling)表示,越南正继续推进军事现代化,并寻求与日本、美国和印度建立更密切安全联系,以应对中国未来在争议海域的强势行为。Vietnam continues to modernise its military and seek closer security ties with Japan, the US and India in preparation for future Chinese assertiveness in disputed waters.该组织提供了上述卫星图片,图片是在过2个月期间拍摄的。The revelation comes as the US pivot to Asia faces severe strain following the election of Rodrigo Duterte, the Philippines president who has burnt bridges with Washington while moving towards rapprochement with China. 在菲律宾总统罗德里戈.杜特尔特(Rodrigo Duterte)当选后,美国转向亚洲的战略面临巨大压力,杜特尔特与美国分道扬镳,转而与中国修好。American allies in Asia, including Japan and South Korea, are also nervous about the election of Donald Trump, who campaigned on an isolationist foreign policy, talked about walking away from trade deals and suggested he might downgrade the US role in key alliances.此外,美国在亚洲的盟友(包括日本和韩国)对唐纳德.特朗Donald Trump)当选感到担忧,特朗普在竞选中曾打出孤立主义外交政策的旗号,谈论退出贸易协议,并暗示他可能会降低美国在重要同盟中的作用。The satellite images show that Vietnam is also building two large hangars on Spratly, one of 14 islands that along with more than 100 reefs make up the Spratly chain, which is claimed by China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines.卫星图片显示,越南还正在斯普拉特利岛建造两个大型飞机库,斯普拉特利群岛(Spratly Islands,中国称南沙群岛)是4个这样的岛屿再加00多个岛礁构成的。中囀?越南、台湾、马来西亚、文莱和菲律宾都宣称拥有该群岛主权。来 /201611/479234。

This year investors have grappled with aplethora of global mysteries: Brexit, war in the Middle East, negative interestrates, energy prices, the Chinese debt bubble, Russian President Vladimir Putin’spolicy-making and drama in Brazil.今年,投资者已经在全力应对全球的诸多不确定性:英国退欧、中东战争、负利率、能源价格、中国债务泡沫、俄罗斯总统弗拉基米#8226;普京(Vladimir Putin)的决策以及巴西的戏剧性事件。Now, however, we face another biguncertainty: what an election battle between Donald Trump and Hillary Clintonmight do to American asset markets.然而,现在我们又面临一个巨大的不确定性:唐纳#8226;特朗Donald Trump)与希拉里#8226;克林Hillary Clinton)的选战会对美国资产市场带来何种影响。Although Mrs Clinton, the presumed Democratnominee, appears to have a fairly big lead over Mr Trump in the polls, theoutcome of November’s presidential vote looks uncertain. We have all learnt in the pastyear how wrong pollsters can be.尽管有望获得民主党候选人提名的希拉里似乎在民调中远远领先于特朗普,但今年11月总统大选的结果看起来仍是不确定的。我们在过去一年里都明白了,民调机构可能错得多么离谱。What is even more unnerving for investorsis that, as populism gathers momentum, it is eroding many of the normalboundaries of “rightand “left “pro-businessand “anti-businessDiscerning clear policy patterns amid the wild rhetoric is not easy for eitherDemocrats or Republicans.甚至更让投资者担心的是,随着民粹主义兴起,“右翼”和“左翼”、“持商业”和“反对商业”之间的许多正常界限变得模糊起来。无论是民主党还是共和党,在他们的一片嘈杂言论当中找出清晰的政策模式并非易事。So what is an investor to do if they wantto Trump-proof their portfolio —or even benefit from an ugly Clinton-versus-Trump fight? In thecoming weeks, sellside banks and financial advisers will produce acres ofideas. Here are five of my own.那么,如果投资者想让他们的投资组合抵御特朗普带来的冲击——乃至从希拉里对决特朗普的残酷选战中获利,他们该怎么做?在今后几周,卖方和金融顾问将会提出诸多观点,下面是我自己个观点。First of all, do not buy banks; or not ifyou hope government will boost their share price. Until recently, Mrs Clintonwas perceived as being soft on Wall Street; indeed, some financiers hoped thatbank-bashing would end in 2016.首先,不要买股;或者说,假如你指望政府会推升股股价,不要买。直至最近,人们都认为希拉里对华尔街持温和立场,实际上,一些金融家期待,遭受抨击的局面将016年结束。But Bernie Sanders, her Democratic rival,has performed so well that Mrs Clinton will face pressure to steal his“socialistlanguage to appease his supporters, and may well pick an anti-WallStreet figure as her running mate, such as Sherrod Brown, an Ohio senator.但希拉里的民主党竞争对手伯尼#8226;桑德Bernie Sanders)表现得太好了,以至于希拉里将会面临窃取其“社会主义”言论来取悦其持者的压力,而且很可能选择一位反对华尔街的人物作竞选搭档,比如俄亥俄州参议员谢罗德#8226;布朗(Sherrod Brown)。Mr Trump may not be so different. ManyRepublicans would love to repeal the post-crisis financial reforms, and he hascriticised the Dodd-Frank Act. But he also seems instinctively hostile to WallStreet. As a self-appointed hero of angry main street voters, he is unlikely toembrace banks.特朗普可能没有那么大的转变。许多共和党人将会乐于废除危机后出台的金融改革措施,而他已经抨击了《多弗兰克法案Dodd-Frank Act)。但他也似乎发自本能地对华尔街怀有敌意。作为一名自诩代表愤怒的大众选民的候选人,他不太可能持。Second, do not expect a rally in Treasurybonds; at least, not one driven by debt cuts. A couple of years ago, it waspresumed that by this point in the economic cycle policymakers would bediscussing how to cut America’s vast debt burden. But Mrs Clinton is no fiscalhawk. On the contrary, she seems to lean towards fiscal stimulus, and may tryto appease supporters of Mr Sanders this way.第二,不要预计国债价格反弹;至少不要期待债务削减推动国债反弹。两年前,人们认为,到经济周期的这个时点,政策制定者将会讨论如何削减美国庞大的债务负担。但希拉里不是财政政策方面的鹰派人物,相反,她似乎倾向于财政刺激政策,并且可能试图通过这种方式取悦桑德斯的持者。And, while the Tea Party wing of theRepublican party is eager to slash debt, Mr Trump has built a career onexploiting leverage. He has vaguely promised to get rid of America’s tn debtin eight years; but he also wants to create jobs, boost growth and protectentitlements. Little wonder that traditional fiscally hawkish Republicansdislike him.而且,尽管共和党内的茶党派系渴望削减债务,但特朗普的职业生涯就是建立在利用杠杆的基础之上。他含糊地承诺在8年内消除美国15万亿美元的债务;但他也希望创造就业机会、促进增长和保护福利。难怪传统的共和党财政鹰派人士不喜欢他。Third, embrace infrastructure stocks —whoever wins. Mr Trump built his brand with construction, and were he to win inNovember he would be likely to unleash a national infrastructure campaign tocreate jobs and growth. He likes the idea of being a second Franklin Roosevelt,the man who built America’s highway system.第三,买入基础设施股票——无论谁赢得大选。特朗普通过建筑业创建了自己的品牌,如果他在今年11月赢得大选,他很可能发起全国性的基础设施建设活动来创造就业和促进增长。特朗普喜欢成为第二个富兰克#8226;罗斯Franklin Roosevelt)的想法——罗斯福打造了美国的公路体系。But Mrs Clinton may do this too. After all,as Lawrence Summers, the former US Treasury secretary, recently pointed out,the beauty of infrastructure spending is that it could create middle-class jobsand growth at a time when monetary policy has reached its limits —at least,if you do not mind raising debt.但希拉里也可能推动基础设施建设。毕竟,正如美国前财长劳伦斯#8226;萨默Lawrence Summers)最近指出的那样,基础设施出的魅力在于,它可以在货币政策达到极限的时候创造中产阶级就业和经济增长——最起码如果你不介意债务上升的话。Fourth, expect currency volatility. Themost eye-grabbing element of Mr Trump’s campaign so far has been his threatsabout trade protectionism. But Mrs Clinton has turned more protectionist, too,toning down her support of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. No one knows if hernewfound caution will actually change trade flows or supply chains. Butsabre-rattling on the global stage could certainly quickly unleash somecurrency swings.第四,预计汇率会出现波动。特朗普的竞选活动迄今最吸引眼球的地方是他威胁要实施贸易保护主义。但希拉里也越来越带有保护主义色,在言语上减少了对《跨太平洋伙伴关系》(Trans-Pacific Partnership,简称TPP)的持。没有人知道,她的新的谨慎立场是否会真的改变贸易流动或者供应链。但全球舞台上的威胁恫吓肯定会很快引发一些汇率波动。来 /201605/442984。

B News At least 79 people have been killed and 131 injured in an explosion claimed by the Islamic State group in Baghdad, Iraqi police say.B新闻 伊斯兰国组织认领的巴格达爆炸事件中,至少79人丧生,131人受伤,伊拉克警方说。A car bomb exploded near a restaurant and shopping area in the central district of Karrada late on Saturday, when Iraqis, like many Muslims in the Arab world, gather in large numbers in juice bars and cafes during the holy month of Ramadan. Many of those killed in the attack were children, Associated Press reported.周六晚上,一辆汽车炸弹在市中心卡拉达区的一家餐馆和购物区附近爆炸,当时,伊拉克人,像阿拉伯世界的许多穆斯林一样,在斋月期间大批聚集在水果吧和咖啡馆。此次袭击遇难者中很多是儿童,美联社报道说。A second bomb also exploded at about midnight in a predominantly Shia area north of the capital, killing another five people. There are reports that the source of the blast was a refrigerator van packed with explosives.此外,第二枚炸弹午夜时分在巴格达北部什叶派聚居区爆炸,炸死5人。有报道说,爆炸源是一辆装满炸弹的冷冻车。Angry residents chased the convoy of the Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi with stones and bricks when he tried to visit the scene of the carnage few hours after the explosion.当总理阿巴迪在爆炸发生几小时后想探视屠杀现场时,愤怒的居民追着他的车队扔石块砖头。They also vented their anger online. Hackers broke into the website of the interior ministry and placed a gruesome picture of a killed child and a drawing of a fake bomb detector, one of the useless devices that are still in use in Baghdad at checkpoints, through which car bombs and suicide bombers pass.他们还在网上发泄怒气。黑客侵入内政部网站,放了一张可怕的被害儿童的照片和一张假炸弹探测器的图画。这种炸弹探测器是仍在巴格达检查站使用的无用设备之一,汽车炸弹和自杀式人体炸弹就是通过这些检查站进城的。The bombings…come a week after Iraqi security forces recaptured the city of Falluja from Islamic State (IS) militants. Authorities say the city was used as a launching pad for attacks on Baghdad by IS.此次爆炸事件……发生在伊拉克安全部队从伊斯兰国(IS)激进分子手中夺回费卢杰城的一周后。当局说,该城被伊斯兰国用作对巴格达发动袭击的基地。IS still controls large swathes of territory in the countrys north and west, including Mosul, Iraqs second largest city. But the group has been under pressure in Iraq and in neighbouring Syria, where it has been targeted by government forces and US-backed rebels.伊斯兰国仍然控制着伊拉克北部和东部的大片领土,包括伊拉克最大城市苏尔。但该组织在伊拉克和邻近的叙利亚一直受到压力,是政府军和美国撑腰的叛军的攻击目标。来 /201607/452418。

South Korean workers have begun their pullout from the Kaesong Industrial Complex in North Korea following new sanctions imposed on Pyongyang for its recent nuclear and rocket tests.韩国工人开始撤离设于朝鲜境内的开城工业园区。此前,韩国因平壤最近进行核试验及试射火箭而对其实施新制裁。On Wednesday Seoul announced it would suspend all activities at the industrial zone to punish the Kim Jong Un government for its fourth nuclear test and latest long range missile launch.首尔星期三宣布,将暂停在开城工业园区内的全部运作,以惩罚金正恩政府次进行核试验以及最近进行的远程导弹试射。Pyongyang reacted to Seoul’s announcement Thursday by declaring the industrial park a military control zone according the North’s official KCNA news agency. North Korea also said it would immediately deport all South Korean nationals, freeze the assets of companies operating there, and called the shut down a ;declaration of war.;朝鲜官方通讯社朝中社报道说,平壤星期四对首尔的这一举措做出反应,宣布开城工业园区为军事控制区。朝鲜还说,将立即驱逐所有韩国公民,并冻结韩国公司在该园区的资产。平壤宣称,园区停工就是“宣战”。The North also said it was shutting down two crucial cross-border communications hotlines.平壤还表示,将切断南北之间两条至关重要的跨境通讯热线。来 /201602/425856。

Iraqi forces have launched a major offensive to retake the Islamic State bastion of Fallujah, ending a months-long siege of the city.伊拉克军队结束对费卢杰的数月围困,发动收复这座伊斯兰国重镇的大规模攻势。Fallujah was the first city in Iraq to fall to IS extremists in January 2014 and the group is well entrenched.费卢014月成为最先落入伊斯兰国极端分子手中的城市,伊斯兰国在那里根基深厚。Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said Iraqi forces were “approaching a moment of great victory.”伊拉克总理阿巴迪说,政府军即将取得一场伟大的胜利。“The Iraqi flag will be raised high over the land of Fallujah,Abadi declared on national television Sunday night.阿巴迪星期天晚上在全国转播的电视节目中表示,伊拉克的旗帜将在费卢杰高高升起。Iraqs military has called on residents trapped in the city to mark their locations with white flags.伊拉克军方要求费卢杰的居民用白旗标识自己的所在地点。Very few families have managed to escape the city in the past months despite government attempts to open safe corridors.尽管伊拉克政府试图开辟安全走廊,数月来很少有人能逃离费卢杰。Fallujah is a traditional Sunni stronghold.费卢杰传统上一直是逊尼派的根据地。U.S. airstrikes have been pounding IS targets in and around the city for weeks.数周来,美国一直对费卢杰城内外的伊斯兰国目标进行空中打击。来 /201605/445556。