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平湖市妇幼保健所激光祛斑手术多少钱浙江嘉兴曙光医院整形浙江嘉兴大腿吸脂术要多少钱 Business商业报道Advertising广告Nothing more than feelings仅仅是感情的眷顾Admen have made a marketing guru of Daniel Kahneman, a prizewinning psychologist广告人成就了营销大师丹尼尔·卡尼曼,一个获奖的心理学家。FIRST, you realise its a gorilla.首先,你会看到这是一只大猩猩。The opening strains of Phil Collinss In the Air Tonight are playing; the beast is enraptured.菲尔·克斯林令人心潮澎湃的著作《今晚夜空中》的旋律在回响,这只猩猩也随之眉飞色舞。As the camera pulls back, you see that hes seated at a drum kit.随着镜头的拉近,你会看到它坐在一套架子鼓旁,He flexes, raises his drumsticks, then brings them resoundingly down. Only in the final frames do you discover that the gorilla is pitching Cadburys Dairy Milk chocolate.它弯下身体,举起它的鼓槌,一锤击下,全场轰动。只有在最后一幅画面你才会看出,大猩猩所代言的是吉百利牛奶巧克力。The advert, released in 2007, should not have worked.该广告发布于2007年,本不该有如此效果。Conventional wisdom doubted that a jolt of joy from a drumming primate, however rhythmically gifted, would spur sales of chocolate bars.传统的智慧认为,灵长类动物击鼓带来的欢乐震撼,即使具有节奏天赋,也不会刺激巧克力棒的销售增加。A member of the team that developed the ad says that when it was passed to Millward Brown, the worlds biggest tester of adverts, the firm found that it scored poorly among women on its measures of awareness and brand appeal and about average among men.但开发广告的一位成员说,当把这份创意交给世界上最大的广告测试公司明略行之后,他们发现,相对意识和号召力这种创意的成功度在女人中效果更好,在男人中也保持均衡。Yet Cadbury went ahead, and was rewarded with millions of online views, better perceptions of its brand and higher sales.于是,吉百利说干就干,数百万的网上观点作为回报,为该公司赢得了更好的声誉和更高的销售额。Return on investment was three times the average for packaged-goods marketing campaigns.回报是为包装商品所做营销花费的三倍。Behind Cadburys simian success was an unlikely inspiration:吉百利大猩猩的成功,来源于一种不太可能的灵感:Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist who won a Nobel Prize in 2002 for showing that people are not the rational agents that economists had thought they were. He argues, most famously in Thinking, Fast and Slow, a 2011 book popularising his work, that the mind incorporates two systems:丹尼尔·卡尼曼,一位因2002年展现过市民不理性行为而获得过诺贝尔奖的心理学家。他在2011年推广他工作的书中提出了最著名的观点,思考,快与慢,也就是说,思维由两个系统组成:an intuitive system one, which makes many decisions automatically, and a calculating but lazy system two, which rationalises system ones ideas and sometimes overrules them.一个是直观的系统一,会自动做出许多决定;一个是精确但懒惰的系统二,将观点系统化,甚至有时会推翻它们。For Mr Kahnemans disciples advertising is above all a way to groom system one, to nudge consumers towards a buy.对于卡曼尼先生的弟子来说,广告首先是一种方式来培养体系,以引导消费者的购买。Going through the emotions情感判断Kahnemanite advertising prizes emotion over information and pays more attention to a brands purpose than to its products.Kahnemanite将广告情感倾注在信息上,而且更注重品牌目的而不是它的产品。It exploits system ones propensity to react to subtle cues.它利用系统中一个倾向反应的微妙暗示。In a print advert for a Betty Crocker pie, a version with the fork placed on the right triggered a 20% higher purchase intent than one with the fork on the left.贝蒂克罗克馅饼的印刷广告就是如此,其中一个版本是将叉子放在右边的购买意向比放在左边多出了20%,因为大多数人吃饭都是用右手。This demands not just new ways of making adverts but new methods for judging if they will work.这就要求制作广告不仅需要新创意,而且需要新途径来判断创意是否有效。Researchers must laser in on measuring emotion as almost the single metric that predicts success, says John Kearon of BrainJuicer, a market-research firm.市场研究公司BrainJuicer的约翰说,研究人员必须能够成功预测情感几乎是单一衡量指标的创意效果。This seasons crop of televisual tear-jerkers reflects such thinking.本季电视节目产物正是那种催人泪下的电影也反应了这样的思想。A sweaty game of wheelchair basketball ends with all the players but one walking out of the gym.一场酣畅淋漓的轮椅篮球比赛最终以除一人之外,所有人都走出体育馆而告终。The choices we make reveal the true nature of our character, intones the voice-over, in the hope that one of those choices will be to drink Guinness stout.画外音这样吟诵道,人的本质悬置在人的选择之中希望人们会选择健力士黑啤。In the gauzy Christmas offering of Britains Royal Mail, posties of many colours deliver parcels in all weathers, accompanied by an a cappella rendition of the Beatles All You Need is Love.英国皇家邮政提供的圣诞产品中,邮递员在各种气候穿着多种颜色的衣递送包裹,伴随着披头士《所有你需要的就是爱》的无伴奏合唱演绎。Of course, admen were aiming at system one long before they had heard of it: sex sells is one of the oldest mottos in the business, after all.当然,广告人们一直致力于一个系统,甚至在他们听说它之前,就是性销售,这毕竟是在商业上最古老的的格言。Even information-packed adverts that seem to be appealing to reason are really playing on emotions, points out Mr Kahneman, who does not give advice to marketers.卡尼曼先生指出,甚至是信息包装广告,吸引人的真正原因也是在玩情绪游戏,但他从不给营销提供意见。His followers are inclined to dispense with system two altogether.他的追随者们更倾向于将两个系统分配到一起。Marketers at Procter amp; Gamble, maker of Tide detergent and Pampers nappies, were trained to get across the single benefit that a product would give its purchaser, says Jim Stengel, a former marketing chief at the firm, now a consultant.宝洁,汰渍洗衣粉和帮宝适尿不湿的营销人员,都经过过产品给予买方单方利润的培训,公司的前任首席执行官吉姆·腾格尔这样说道,他现在是一个顾问。There was not a whole lot of recognition of emotional connection with a brand or company.没有一种情感能联接所有的品牌与公司。But that has changed.但是,这已经改变了。Pamp;Gs tribute to athletes mothers during last years Olympics was aimed directly at the syrupy soul of system one.去年奥运会期间宝洁对母亲的赞颂已经成为系统的灵魂。Rare is the marketer today who does not spout systemic terminology,在今天的市场,罕见的是谁不使用系统的技巧。but there are disagreements over how to divine what system one is feeling, and over the role of system two.但是在如何分辨两个系统谁表达情感的问题上依然存在分歧。In testing an advert before it goes to market, BrainJuicer asks subjects to say which of eight faces, each expressing a different emotion, best reflects the feeling it arouses and how intense it is.在一个广告进入系统之前的测试中,BrainJuicer要求受试者说明是哪八个方面,每一面如何表达不同的情感,最能唤起什么样的感情和怎么唤起的。The firm tested the gorilla advert after its release.在发布之后,该公司测试了大猩猩广告,It scored the highest emotional-intensity marks of any advert to that point.它在情感强度上超越其他广告得到了最高分,因为观众在看到这一点时感到快乐和惊喜。Decode, a rival, uses implicit association, in which subjects associate images and their reactions are timed.解码,是一个运用内隐联想的对手,将图像和概念的联系认为是定时的,The faster the response, the deeper the link between the two.响应越快,两者的联系越深。Decode, acting independently of Cadbury, found that the gorilla advert conjured up security and enjoyment better than a less-popular successor involving drag-racing trucks, which had unchocolatey overtones of adventure.在吉百利独立的选择了大猩猩广告后,解码发现,这个广告所带来的安全和享受的体验比一个具有冒险色的不太流行的卡车竞速赛的效果更佳。Some say the most telling signals are biological.有人说,最有说力的标志是生物。Neuro-Insight, an Australian outfit, monitors electrical activity in viewers brains.用澳大利亚的神经洞察装备来监视观众的大脑活动时,When viewers watched the Cadbury advert, signals that suggested images were being stored in long-term memory peaked three times:当观众看了吉百利广告,其结果显示图像被储存在长期记忆中最多有三次,when subjects recognised a gorilla, when they saw the drums and, encouragingly for Cadbury, when the brand appeared.而当受试者认出大猩猩,当他们再看到打鼓时,脑海里就会有鼓舞人心的吉百利品牌出现。Millward Brown has always probed for emotional responses, insists Graham Page, its head of consumer neuroscience.Millward Brown公司一直在探讨情绪反应,坚持格雷厄姆页,也就是其头部消费神经科学。People are aware of their feelings, so it is legitimate to discover them by asking questions.人们都能意识到自己的感情,所以更合理的是通过有效的提问来发现。The new biometric techniques are useful for finding out how people came to feel as they do.新的生物识别技术可以找出人们产生感觉的来源,Mr Page says Millward Brown has worked more with them than any other firm.佩奇先生说,Millward Brown已经比其他任何公司做的都多了。Furthermore, he says, do not underrate system two.此外,他说,不要低估系统二,It usually interacts with the system-one response to reach a decision.它通常与系统一回应互动来达成一项决议,That is why passengers overcome their reflexive aversion to some budget airlines; guided by hard-headed system two, they buy the cheap tickets.这也就是为什么乘客会克自己的厌恶而选择一些廉价的航空公司,被系统二的冷静头脑所指导,买了更便宜的机票。Still, Mr Page admits, researchers used to focus too much on thinking.不过,佩琪先生承认,研究人员在思考上关注的太多。Now Millward Brown is as keen as anyone to plumb consumers instincts.现在Millward Brown向其他人一样热心的探索消费者的本能。There is an irony in this. Most ers of Mr Kahnemans bestseller will end up mistrusting system one for its propensity to mislead.关于这一点,还有这样一个讽刺。卡尼曼先生的畅销书读者最终会因系统一的误导倾向而被迷惑。Not marketing folk. System one craves chocolate.没有营销的民俗。系统一迫切的需要巧克力。 /201312/270110浙江新安国际医院做祛眼袋手术多少钱

嘉兴瑞兰玻尿酸Science and technology科学技术Dealing with asteroid strikes应对小行星撞击A close shave近地掠过After a hit and a near miss minds are focusing on the risks from space rocks在一次撞击和一次近距离擦肩而过后,人们开始关注来自外太空岩石的威胁One close shave with an asteroid is cause for excitement.一次小行星近地掠过是一种刺激,Two on the same day is scary.同一天发生两次就是惊险了。On February 15th planet Earth experienced exactly that, as a hunk of itinerant space rock passed by extremely close.在2月15日,行星地球正经历了这样的惊险:一块流动的大块头太空岩石在咫尺的距离掠过地球,While another exploded spectacularly in the skies above Russia.而另一块则十分壮观得在俄国上空爆炸。The first asteroid, called 2012 DA14, had been known to astronomers for around a year.第一颗小行星名为2012 DA14,天文学家在大约一年前发现。They had calculated that there was no risk of collision. But the 30-metre, 190,000-tonne rock came close: 27,700Km above the surface, inside the orbit of some satellites.他们计算出小行星的轨道,并无撞击危险。但这枚直径30米、重达190000吨的石块离得是那么近:距地表27,700千米,处于一些卫星轨道内。It was the nearest ever recorded for an asteroid that size.对这种大小的小行星,这是有记录以来距离最近的一次。The second came quite literally out of a clear blue sky, appearing without warning and then disintergrating about 30 seconds later over Chelyabinsk.第二颗在一片晴空万里中毫无警告得出现了,约30秒后在车里雅宾斯克市上空解体了。According to NASA, the 10,000-tonne meteor released about 500 kilotonnes of energy when it broke apart, equivalent to the yield of a largish nuclear bomb.来自NASA的数据显示,这颗10000吨重的陨石在肢解时释放了大约500吨质量的能量,相当于一颗大型核弹的爆炸当量。Only the height of the detonation-dozens of kilometers up–kept the fatality count at zero, although more than 1,000 people were injured as windows were blown out of buildings.好在爆炸发生在数十公里的高空,未有人员死亡。虽然有超过1000人受伤,但只是被震碎的建筑物玻璃伤到。This double whammy has focused minds on the threat from asteroids, something that astronomers have long known is real but which tends to be treated with giggles whenever it is brought outside the lab.这次双重晦气已引起人们对小行星威胁的关注。长久以来天文学家们就清楚这种实实在在的威胁,但一旦在实验室外提起就会引来哄堂大笑。Some politicians have nevertheless taken action.不过还是有些政客们采取了行动。In 1998 Americas Congress ordered NASA to begin cataloguing the very largest, planet killer asteroids-defined as those more than a kilometer across.美国国会在1998年下令NASA将那些大型的行星杀手级别的小行星编入目录,直径超过1公里的都归入其中。The agency reckons it has accounted for more than 90% of them.NASA认为超过90%的这类小行星都已记录在案。But as the impact from such a beast would be catastrophic, the few undiscovered rocks still represent a threat.但是由于这种怪兽可能带来灾难性的撞击,少部分未被发现的此类岩石仍然是个威胁。Deep impact深度撞击These days, a mix of national organizations and universities run an alphabet soup of detectors.目前,一群来自不同国家组织和大学的研究人员开始了初步的探测。But the field is still a bit of backwater, and budgets are tight.但是该领域仍是一潭死水,预算很紧张。John Tonry, an astronomer at the University of Hawaii, is building an asteroid-hunting telescope called ATLAS with m from NASA.John Tonry, 一位来自夏威夷大学的天文学家,正在建造一个名为ATLAS的小行星搜索望远镜,NASA提供了500万美元的经费。Dr Tonry cannot afford to hire a proper telescope engineer, and is having to design the device himself.士Tonry负担不起一个正式的望远镜工程师,必须亲自设计这台望远镜。ATLAS is intended to spot mid-sized city killers like 2012 DA14.ATLAS望远镜的目的是为了辨认出类似2012 DA14这样中等大小的城市杀手。Astronomers reckon the risk from these is at least as great as that from the biggest ones because there are many more of them.天文学家估测这类小行星的威胁绝不在那些更大的小行星的威胁之下,因为数量实在太多。Exactly how many more, though, is hard to say because, being small, they are hard to see.不过至于准确数量却很难说,因为他们实在太小难以被发现。ATLAS should be able to spot a rock on a collision course a few days before it hits, giving time to organize a hasty evacuation.ATLAS应该可以提前数天发现一块沿着撞击轨道运行的岩石,争取足够的时间组织快速疏散。Of course, rather than evacuating the impact zone, it would be better if there were some way to deal with a threatening asteroid more directly, by nudging it into a different orbit.当然,比起疏散撞击区域,找到一个更直接应对小行星威胁的方法会更好,比如把小行星推入不同轨道。Asteroid deflection suffers from a even greater giggle factor than asteroid detection, but several ideas have been proposed. One popular method is to use nuclear weapons.让小行星偏向的想法比小行星探测更会招致哄笑,但已经有人提出了一些主意。Detonating a nuke near an asteroids surface could boil away some of the rock and-by Newtons third law of motion-impart a shove in the other direction.一个通俗的方法是使用核武器。在小行星表面附近引爆一枚核弹可以蒸发掉一些岩石质量。根据牛顿第三运动定律,还会在其他方向产生作用力。Done early enough, this would shift the objects orbit sufficiently to stop it hitting Earth.如果爆炸时间足够提前,这足已改变小行星的轨道,防止与地球的撞击。(当然这毫无意义,只是纯粹在卖弄学问罢了。Alternatively, simply ramming the offending rock might provide enough force to provoke a suitable reaction and change in orbit.作为另一种选择,针对来犯岩石的很普通的撞击,也许能产生足够的作用力引发反作用力,进而改变轨道。The European Space Agency plans to launch, in 2015, a spacecraft called Don Quijote that will test the feasibility of doing this.欧洲航天机构计划在2015年发射名为堂吉诃德的太空船,以测试这种方法的可行性。Other ideas are more elegant: painting the rock white, for instance, will alter the way it interacts with sunlight, nudging it into a new orbit.其他的主意要优雅得多:比如把岩石表面涂成白色,这样将改变太阳光对其的作用力,也就改变了运行轨道。Or rocket motors might be strapped to it, to propel it in a desirable direction. Or a large spacecraft could orbit around it, where its gravity would alter the asteroids orbit around the sun.或者在岩石上捆绑一个火箭发动机,将其推向一个想要的方向。再或者发射一个大型太空船绕其运行,太空船的引力将会改变小行星绕太阳运转的轨道。The trouble is that many of these ideas rely on having plenty of warning. Even small asteroids are big, as 2012 DA14 shows.问题在于,这里面的很多主意都依赖于充足的预警时间,即使是处理如2012 DA14般的小块头小行星。That means shifting them at short notice is going to be difficult.这就意味着,在很短的预知时间下,将很难改变他们的轨道。When Americans National Research Council studied the problem in 2010, it came to the conclusion that even nuclear weapons would require warnings times measured in years or decades.当美国国家研究委员会在2010年研究这个问题时,得出一个结论:即使是使用核武器也需要数年甚至数十年的预警时间。Evacuation, it said, was the only feasible option for dealing with little warning. Others are more optimistic.委员会同时提到,在面对那些很难被辨认出而不期而至的小行星时,疏散是唯一可行的办法。The day before the explosion over Russia researchers at the University of California, Santa Barbara, proposed putting into orbit a solar-powered laser that could use its beam to vaporize the surface of an incoming asteroid and thus knock it off course, even at a few days notice.其他人要乐观一些。就在俄国上空的爆炸发生前一天,来自圣巴巴拉加利福尼亚大学的研究人员提出一个把太阳能激光器发射到小行星轨道的方案,使用激光蒸发掉小行星表面的物质。这样即使只有数天的预警时间,也能使其偏离轨道。Bet your life?用你的生命做赌注?Hard-nosed economists might wonder whether spending money on asteroid research-either for detection or deflection-is really worth it.精明实务的经济学家也许会怀疑在小行星研究上投资是否物有所值,不管是小行星探测或是轨道偏移。After all, for all their drama asteroid strikes are rare, and there are plenty of other threats to worry about.毕竟,小行星撞击是个非常戏剧性且罕见的,而我们还有众多其他的威胁需要担忧。But the relative lack of information makes the true risk difficult to calculate.但是由于信息的相对匮乏,真正的风险难以评估。An asteroid strike is an event with a low probability, but a high death toll when it does happen.小行星撞击是低概率事件,但是一旦发生,就意味着大量的死亡。That, as Dr Tonry points out, does funny things to risk calculations.士Tonry指出,这让计算风险变得有些奇异。Our best guess is that you can expect maybe 100 people a year to die from asteroid strikes, he says.他说,我们最好的估算是,每年大约会有100人死于小行星撞击,Of course, what that really means is that you might see 100,000 death every thousand years, or 100m every million.当然,实际上这意味着每隔数千年发生一次10万人的死亡,或者每百万年发生一次1亿人的死亡。After dodging two potential catastrophes in one day, the world may decide it is better to be safe than sorry.在一天之内躲过了两次可能的灾难之后,我们的世界也许会决定,安全总比遗憾好。 /201312/269271嘉兴蓝光去痘效果 桐乡市第一人民医院治疗疤痕多少钱

嘉兴曙光中西医整形美容医院去晒斑怎么样Leanne ,uh, Kenzie? I think.leanne 叫Kenzie吗 应该吧From Morgan Hill, california.来自加州的根山Ellen, I saw an ad on Craigslist that said wedding photoellen 我在craglist看到一个广告from 1888 ellen Degeneres look alike.极其相似ellen degeneres 一张1888年的结婚照Is this your long lost twin?她是你失散已久的双胞胎吗Alright, 1888, is this my twin?又来了 1888年 我的双胞胎Lets take a look.看一下这张照片And lets..我们来lets see the face. I dont know what that...看一下脸 不知道脸Well.好吧I dont think I have a clear image of myself.看来我都不知道我自己长啥样Because I dont see that...因为我实在看不出I mean she doesnt...她没有She could be. we could be related.其实有可能 我们可能是远房亲戚She doesnt seem to enjoy wearing dresses either,so...因为看样子她也不喜欢穿裙子 所以注:EllenShow中英字幕来源于:艾伦秀字幕组 /201312/267928 In his book Cosmos, the late scientist Carl Sagan talks aboutthe way in which the earth is regularly struck by material fromouter space.已故科学家卡尔·萨根在著作《宇宙》中叙述了外太空物体如何有规律和地球发生碰撞。These collisions with space debris can beminor–as in a shooting star on a summer night–or amazinglydestructive, as in the collision that probably killed off thedinosaurs.太空垃圾和地球碰撞的机率很小,就像夏夜划过流星,破坏性却很大,这种碰撞可以令恐龙灭绝。Thankfully, the biggies are extremely rare.值得庆幸的是,这种机率太渺茫了。Sagan makes the point that the most dangerous collision facing us now, however, is one thatmight be mistaken for something else:a nuclear attack. 萨根阐述的观点是目前我们面临的最危险的是碰撞而非人们误解的核战。He warned that thinking an asteroid isactually an ICBM could result in the worst possible destruction–an unintended war.他提醒人们,事实上,行星就像洲际弹道导弹,可能产生意料外破坏性极大的战争后果。Was this just paranoid thinking? Unfortunately, no.这仅仅是偏执思维吗?不幸地是,无独有偶。Carl Sagan is no longer with us, but intestimony before congress just last year, a ed States Air Force brigadier general warned thatjust such a thing almost happened in June of two thousand and two.去年,一位美过空军准将在国会的一份词中称类似的事情发生在2002年6月。That’s when a meteoroid entered the earth’s atmosphere over the Mediterranean and was picked up by U.S. early-warning satellites on the lookout for high-altitude explosions and incoming missiles.美国预警卫星在监测高空爆炸物和来袭导弹时发现一颗流星穿破地球大气层,降落在地中海地区。The alarming object falling from the sky was recognized for what it was, this time.而这次人们确认从天而降令人惶恐的物体究竟是什么。The generals’point, though, was that we never know where space junk will fall.准将指出我们无法确定太空垃圾降落在什么地方。Turn the globe by just a fewhours earlier on that day in June and the meteoroid would have been over the border of Pakistanand India–exactly where everyone was fearing a nuclear attack.如果六月的这天,地球转动退回到几小时前,流星降落的地方就正好是巴基斯坦和印度的交界处,世人唯恐发生核战的交界地。We’ve been lucky so far.迄今为止,我们都还很幸运。But Carl Sagan’s warning came perilously close to becoming a prophecy and a harmless natural event in the sky, to triggering a terrible event here on earth.但是,卡尔·萨根的提醒很可能是可怕的预言,本来平常的天空自然事件很可能引发地球灾难。 201409/329471嘉兴做双眼皮哪好桐乡去额头上的皱纹价格

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